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The gold break-out began in May with an average price of about $1284 the ounce. Yesterday's London PM Fix was nearly $1526, to put gold up almost 19% over the last three months.
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
Monday, September 2, 2019
Sunday, September 1, 2019
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Canadian court dismisses Michael Mann's libel claim with prejudice, Mann withholds his climate data to this day
A prominent skeptical climate scientist in Canada named Tim Ball accused Mann of fraud in generating the Hockey Stick graph. The famous quote, from a February 2011 interview of Ball, was “Michael Mann should be in the State Pen, not Penn State.” In March 2011, Mann sued Ball for libel, focusing on that quote, in the Supreme Court of British Columbia in Vancouver. Here is a copy of the Complaint. (Note: In British Columbia, the Supreme Court is not the highest appellate court, but rather the trial-level court for larger cases.) The case then essentially disappeared into limbo for eight plus years. But on Friday, August 23, the British Columbia court dismissed Mann’s claim with prejudice, and also awarded court costs to Ball. As far as I can determine, this was an oral ruling, and no written judgment nor transcript of the ruling yet exists. I have asked Ball to send them along as soon as they exist.
The story of Ball’s vindication, and of Mann’s shame, is a somewhat long one, and turns on Mann’s flat refusal to share publicly the data and methodology by which he constructed the Hockey Stick graph. In about 2003 a very talented Canadian mathematician named Steve McIntyre began an effort to replicate the Mann/Bradley/Hughes work. McIntyre started with a request to Mann to provide the underlying data and methodologies (computer programming) that generated the graph. To his surprise, McIntyre was met not with prompt compliance (which would be the sine qua non of actual science) but rather with hostility and evasion. McIntyre started a blog called Climate Audit and began writing lengthy posts about his extensive and unsuccessful efforts to reconstruct the Hockey Stick. Although McIntyre never completely succeeded in perfectly reconstructing the Hockey Stick, over time he gradually established that Mann et al. had adopted a complex methodology that selectively emphasized certain temperature proxies over others in order to reverse-engineer the "shaft" of the stick to get a pre-determined desired outcome.
Whenever very short rates start to pay as much or more than the longest rate, recession follows in short order
The 3-month Treasury now pays more than the 30-year in the last four days of August 2019.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Trump's in denial when he says we're great again, Democrats are in denial saying we were never great in the first place
Flashback to one year ago this month when Andrew Cuomo, Democrat Governer of New York, said it plainly.
Both sides are in denial, which is one reason why little is changing for the better.
Back when America was great, Q2 real GDP used to average 4.4%, under Trump it averages 2.6%
From 1982 to 2000, coincident with the great Reagan bull market in stocks, the average report of real GDP for the second quarter was 4.4%.
Trump was going to make America like that again.
At an average report of 2.6% so far, he has no grounds for saying America is back, let alone greater than ever before. He's doing better than Obama at 2.3%, but that's about it.
The economy shrank dramatically after 2000, and no one has figured out how to fix it.
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