Republicans finally advanced their budget out of committee late last night, but just barely

 

USA loses last AAA rating, from Moody's, perfectly timed for after GOP can't move a budget out of committee lol

Moody’s downgrades U.S. credit rating, citing rise in government debt

... Moody’s had been a holdout in keeping U.S. sovereign debt at the highest credit rating possible, and brings the 116-year-old agency into line with its rivals. Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. to AA+ from AAA in August 2011, and Fitch Ratings also cut the U.S. rating to AA+ from AAA, in August 2023.

“Successive U.S. administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs,” Moody’s analysts said in a statement. “We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration.” ...

“... we expect federal deficits to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending and relatively low revenue generation,” Moody’s said. ″We anticipate that the federal debt burden will rise to about 134% of GDP by 2035, compared to 98% in 2024.″⁣ ...

Moody’s officially rated U.S. bonds in 1993 for the first time, but had assigned a “country ceiling rating” of Aaa on the U.S. since 1949.

The GOP runs the House but fails to get Trump's bill out of the budget committee, vote fails 16-21

 

GOP fiscal hawks sink key vote on Trump ‘big, beautiful bill’  

Budget Package Remains Bottled Up in House Committee, for Now

House Budget Committee rejects Trump agenda bill in major setback for GOP leaders

The funniest thing that's happening to Donald Trump right now is that while he tries to intimidate the Fed to reduce interest rates and they do nothing, yields are soaring all by themselves

 The bond market is issuing a vote of no confidence in our elected leadership.

One branch of Republican government thinks this is the 19th century with a robust manufacturing base it needs to protect with crazy wild tariffs, and another branch of Republican government thinks it's just fine to go on spending like drunken sailors and not raise taxes to pay for any of it.

Interest payments alone on the national debt in fiscal year 2024 soared to $1.1 trillion against revenues of $4.9 trillion.

Meanwhile the most powerful military in the world can't stop a bunch of rag-headed heathen bastards from launching missiles at Israel.

These people are crackerdog.

US Treasury yields are now up a net 2.37% across the curve since last Friday.

 

Long duration is very unhappy: 10Y at 4.53 at the close yesterday, 20Y at 5.00, 30Y at 4.97.

 

VUSTX ytd total return: -0.53%.

 

 

No DOGE savings show up in April US Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the Federal Government, but higher deficits sure do, $194 billion higher year to date than last year

Fiscal 2025 deficit, October-April: $1.049 trillion

Fiscal 2024 deficit, October-April: $0.855 trillion

Increase in the deficit in 2025 Oct-Apr: $194 billion 

 

Meanwhile CNBC blows smoke up your ass:

Tariff receipts topped $16 billion in April, a record that helped cut the budget deficit

 

 

The chairman of the House Fweedom Caucus is calling for tax increases on the rich

 Not to reduce the deficit, but to pay for all the new Trump goodies.

$50 trillion in debt in ten years is a lead-pipe cinch.

 

As predicted, the hubris of Elon Musk's promises of $2 trillion in DOGE savings now crashes on the rocks of reality as he promises only $150 billion in savings in FY 2026

 

 Have there been no savings from the Department of Defense, the costliest department in the federal government? No $1,000 toilet seats to be found? No savings from sex change operation eliminations? How about the $7 billion in military equipment left behind in Afghanistan, stuff like that? Didn't we get booted from Niger last year? Anything left behind there? You get the idea, but we've heard nothing about Department of Defense waste, fraud, and abuse.

I mean, where did Army Surplus come from in the first place?

Oh, by the way, the Pentagon failed its seventh audit in a row in November 2024. It has $4 trillion in assets in every US state and 4,500 locations worldwide, but Elon Musk couldn't find one thing to eliminate?

Yeah, but they're on track to fire 300,000 federal workers.

Meanwhile the $150 billion in claimed savings to come, if they actually do get here, is already gone, swallowed up by the Giant Squid. The deficit year to date is already $242 billion higher than it was last year at this time.

DOGE has been nothing but theatre, and Elon's just taking a bow as his gig comes to an end at the close of May.

Has anything in recent memory failed more spectacularly than this?

 

 

 

No DOGE savings show up in March US Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the Federal Government, but higher deficits sure do, $242 billion higher year to date than last year

 

 The fiscal year to date deficit last year was $1.064691 trillion.

The fiscal year to date deficit this year is $1.307132 trillion, $242.441 billion higher. 

The monthly US Treasury statement may be found here.

Democrat Pete Aguilar (CA-33) predicted the House Freedom Caucus would cave to the Senate budget proposal, and every last one of them did lol

They have no principles. The national debt is going to soar just like it would have under Harris.

Spartz and Massie, the lone Republican Nay votes, are not members of the House Freedom Caucus.

Democratic leader predicts GOP holdouts will cave and support Senate budget bill

... “It’s pretty clear that House Republicans generally say one thing when they’re in an elevator with us or with you,” Aguilar told reporters in the Capitol. “And then they do something else when they are given an opportunity to vote on the floor.”

Aguilar is predicting those dynamics will also govern the debate over the sweeping budget blueprint passed by the Senate last week, which has drawn howls from a number of House conservatives who fear it will pile trillions of dollars onto the national debt. ...

House conservatives, however, are furious with the budget drafted by Senate Republicans, saying the spending cuts it promotes are insufficient to rein in deficit spending. They’re also up in arms over the Senate’s adoption of a budget gimmick empowering upper chamber Republicans to claim that the tax cut extensions will add $0 to the debt — a far cry from the $4 trillion deficit impact estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.

Aguilar, though, said Democrats anticipate that those holdouts will experience a change of heart when the pressure grows from the White House and they’re being blamed for blocking Trump’s agenda. ...

“Generally, the only one who we can believe is Thomas Massie, who’s principled and if he says he’s a no he’s going to be a no,” he continued, referring to the Republican representative from Kentucky. “Everyone else generally will say one thing until they get a phone call from the president.”

The GOP House caves again, adopts the absurd, Orwellian, milktoast Senate budget plan instead of their own to get to reconciliation

Now they all take two weeks off.

House Republicans on Thursday adopted the Senate’s framework that will be used to enact key parts of President Trump’s legislative agenda, getting the blueprint over the finish line after a last-minute scramble to win over conservatives who had spent days railing against the measure.

The largely party line 216-214 vote marks a big win for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has pushed an aggressive timeline to advance Trump’s domestic policy priorities, and President Trump, who endorsed the legislation and lobbied those on the right flank to get on board.

Only two Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Victoria Spartz (Ind.) — voted against the measure. ...

More.

The GOP US House was so proud of passing its budget framework at the end of February, too, but Trump just threw them under the bus for the Senate plan, which will put the country $50 trillion in debt by 2034

 ROFLMAO.

 

 

US imports came to $4.11 trillion in 2024: You'd have to tariff this out of existence to pay for the nearly $7 trillion in federal outlays in fiscal 2024

The tariff rate would have to be 170%, not 20% or 25% or even 50%.

Those are not serious proposals. 

The tax base is much too small.

Humoring Mad King Ludwig about this is an errand worthy only of fools.

Elon Musk hasn't saved the taxpayers anything, year-to-date spending is actually 7.4% higher in 2025 than in 2024

 Reported here:

... The Hamilton Project, an economic policy think tank, tracks federal spending using daily treasury statements published by the government.

These data show that the federal government had spent $1.893 trillion in 2025 as of March 26, compared to $1.763 trillion at the same date last year. In other words, federal spending in on pace to come in 7.4% higher this year than last. ...

 

Democrats united under Hakeem Jeffries in the US House are the only ones in American politics above water right now

 US House Democrats voted unanimously against the Republicans' continuing spending resolution under -4.2 underwater Republican Speaker Mike Johnson (except for Democrat Jared Golden [ME-2], a Blue Dog Democrat who under ranked choice voting in Maine wins by being the second choice of people who voted for someone else).

Senate Minority Leader Democrat Chucky Schumer (-19.6) led eight other Democrats in the US Senate to pass the continuing spending resolution. 

Republicans are jumping the shark. Opposing that is popular. 

Democrats, are you listening?

A new party of violence in the making?

 "They hate us": Democrats confront their own Tea Party

Various observations after Democrat town halls:

 "Among the things I got [at a town hall] were: 'Will you call for Chuck Schumer to resign?'" the lawmaker said. "Last week I got: 'You need to tell your leadership they had no right rebuking Democrats for being strong at'" Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress.

"Another thing I got was: 'Democrats are too nice. Nice and civility doesn't work. Are you prepared for violence?'"

"The level of exasperation is comparable [to the Tea Party] for sure, even if the issues and policies are very different," said [Jared] Huffman [CA-2]. 

"The base has been pissed off for a while." ...  it "seems to be more widespread" now.

"My constituents have passionately said they are not happy with Democratic leadership. ... They expect more from me and from Democrats in Congress."

"If near unanimity against the Republican CR is not definitive evidence of a party unified in opposition to Donald Trump and Elon Musk, then I am not sure what would be," said Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.).

Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) told Axios that "no one expressed displeasure with Democrats" during his last two-hour town hall. People are "back to focusing on Musk and Trump," he said.

"All I know is that most folks are pissed, and scared, and they hate this chaos and the blatant corruption of Trump and Musk," said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio). "Democrats absolutely want leaders who are going to fight back and fix what's broken."

U.S. District Judge Theodore Chuang in Maryland rules Elon Musk violated the Constitution in dismantling USAID

 

 The ruling is significant because the dopes in the Republican Party just rammed through a continuing spending resolution which fully funds the now severely diminished USAID.

The money must be spent as allocated by Congress.

 

 Judge rules DOGE’s USAID dismantling likely violates the Constitution

WASHINGTON (AP) — The dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development by billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency likely violated the Constitution, a federal judge ruled Tuesday as he indefinitely blocked DOGE from making further cuts to the agency. ...

In one of the first DOGE lawsuits against Musk himself, U.S. District Judge Theodore Chuang in Maryland rejected the Trump administration’s position that Musk is merely President Donald Trump’s adviser.

Musk’s public statements and social media posts demonstrate that he has “firm control over DOGE,” the judge found pointing to an online post where Musk said he had “fed USAID into the wood chipper.” ...

The judge said it’s likely that USAID is no longer capable of performing some of its statutorily required functions. ...

Chuang said DOGE’s and Musk’s fast-moving destruction of USAID likely harmed the public interest by depriving elected lawmakers of their “constitutional authority to decide whether, when and how to close down an agency created by Congress.” ...

 

This is brutal: A list of Senate Democrats who were all for last week's failed filibuster after they were against it

 In the first column are 30 Democrats who infamously voted to abolish the filibuster late in the evening on Jan 19, 2022, which failed 48-52 because of Sinema and Manchin, but happily tried to mount one last week.

The roll call vote in the US Senate is here (the Wikipedia entry is wrong on this, citing a CBS story and dating the vote to Jan 20).

In column two are 7 Democrats who campaigned to abolish the filibuster but who also happily tried to mount one last week.

The 2017 letter to Mitch McConnell in the last column references the names of 19 Democrats who then said they were for the filibuster, but last week 5 of them weren't lol.

The irony of all this of course is that Joe Biden's spending for fiscal 2025 was just passed with little modification by Republicans with the help of 10 Democrats (1 Independent) and the Democrats are beating themselves up over it.

But it's kind of hard to crow about Joe Biden's success after you just forced him out of power.

🤷

 

LOL, 8 Senate Democrats were Yea before they were Nay: 9 Senate Democrats and 1 Independent broke their own filibuster to advance the House Republican continuing spending resolution to a floor vote against which 8 of them then voted as it passed on a simple majority

 8 Democrats: "See, we voted against it!"

The Senate filibuster is indeed a magical, wonderful, horrible, no good thing. It makes you collect 60 votes to end debate, but then you can vote to make yourself look good right after you betrayed your friends.

Senate passes GOP funding bill to avert a government shutdown

The Senate passed a six-month funding bill Friday to avert a government shutdown hours ahead of the midnight deadline, sending it to President Donald Trump to sign into law.

The vote was 54-46, with two Democrats joining all but one Republican in voting yes. Earlier Friday, the bill cleared a key procedural hurdle with the help of 10 Democrats in a 62-38 vote. Sixty votes were needed to defeat a Democratic filibuster.

The votes came after a dramatic 48-hour period during which Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., broke with most House and Senate Democrats, announcing he would support moving forward on the bill one day after he declared it didn’t have the votes. Schumer ultimately voted no on final passage of the legislation.       

The cloture motion roll call 62-38 is here showing the nine Democrats and one Independent vote Yea to defeat their own filibuster.

The final passage roll call 54-46 is here showing eight of the ten, all Democrats, voting their phony Nays: Cortez Masto, Durbin, Fetterman, Gillibrand and Schumer, Hassan, Peters, and Schatz.

Peters, who voted Yea and then Nay, isn't running again next year, and neither is Shaheen, who really didn't care and voted Yea both times with King the Independent.

Rand Paul voted Nay Nay!

 

 

Nay Nay is good.

 

Federal outlays in fiscal 2025 will be almost 200% higher than the 1982 outlays adjusted forward to today's dollars

 I've heard the Drain the Swamp bullshit since Reagan's Grace Commission in 1982, when federal outlays were $745 billion.

That's the equivalent of ~$2.5 trillion today, yet actual outlays will be $7.3 trillion in fiscal 2025.

 

DOGE can't possibly close that gap.

 

It's not called Leviathan for nothing.

 

Only one thing can fix it.

 

 

 

Senator Schumer's surrender to Republicans inflames rank and file Democrats even in their homes

The anger mirrors less visible Republican discontent with its supine leadership for failing to assert Congress' control over the power of the purse and letting Elon Musk run their show.

 

House Dems go into "complete meltdown" as Schumer folds

... "I know I speak for so many in our caucus when I say Schumer is misreading this moment. The Senate Dems must show strength and grit by voting no," said Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.).

... Some House members, in turn, have gotten an earful from constituents. "I have also never had so many people from home personally texting me—ANGRY," said another House Democrat. "I don't think they knew who Chuck Schumer was before today," the lawmaker said. "But they know now and they hate him." ...