Saturday, December 24, 2022

CNN thinks November core inflation at 4.7% yoy is good news

There's never any discussion about how core inflation vaulted to the current levels well before the war in Ukraine even began.

The reason for the inflation surge is Biden's war for green energy, the one input which makes everything cost more because green energy costs much more than conventional energy from coal, oil, and natural gas.

Add trillion$ in COVID stimulus chasing too few goods and it's a recipe for the disaster which is ongoing, not moderating.

Some people get it. Most don't.


 

 


 

  • The Fed's Favorite Gauge Shows Price Increases Are Moderating


  • Ohio weather clown show: Let's go Brandon!

    Of course.

     


    Intelligence plummets in Florida as snow pummels New York

     


    Gotta hand it to UPS: 5 degrees F all day yesterday, winds howling, 7.5 inches of new snow, and UPS still delivered the package

     No mail.

     



    Christmas Eve: At least 1.7 million without power in USA

     


    75 mph narrowly loses in Buffalo

     


    Friday, December 23, 2022

    Joe Biden's America two days before Christmas is a third world patchwork of power outages all over the place

    About 1.04 million without power this morning.

    It's going to be a rough Christmas Eve without power with forecast real lows in the single digits.

     




    Wednesday, December 21, 2022

    The good news is COVID-19 deaths per million were 4-5x worse a year ago than they are now in the US

    Deaths per million stabilized 8 months ago at the current level and haven't really budged since then.

    Those who predicted an endemic situation developing appear to have been right.

    1.2 deaths per million presently represents about 398 deaths per day at current population, or about 11.9k dying per month since mid-April.

    Actual cumulative deaths over the period have averaged about 12.25k per month, or 98k.

    If that rate persists like this for a full year we'll get something like 147k deaths, which would then still be 4x worse than the average influenza deaths year.

    92% of COVID-19 deaths in California continue to be among those 50 and older, and 72% are among those 65 and older.

    That's the bad news.

    Seems like an unacceptable new normal to me.

    Concentrating efforts on vaccinating people younger than 50 seems pointless and highly inappropriate for the situation.


     


    Half of the top 10 snowiest Decembers in Grand Rapids have occurred since 2007

     The result, no doubt, of the generally wetter conditions in the Great Lakes over the long haul as predicted by slightly cooler Pacific Ocean waters indicated by the Oceanic Nino Index.

    We've had 14+ inches so far in Dec 2022 with 2 feet expected in the latest storm, so this December might break into the top 5. 

    Winter. It's what's for Christmas.

     






    Saturday, December 17, 2022

    Friday, December 16, 2022

    Bring back the firing squads

     USA botched 35% of execution attempts...

    Foreign ownership level of US Treasury securities fell 6.2% year over year in October

     The level contracted to a point approximately last seen in May 2021.

    As reported levels in the table are subject to revision in future monthly tables. My graph shows as reported levels in May each year. 

    The drop probably does not reflect actual selling, but falling market value of UST because of the bond rout.




    Wednesday, December 14, 2022

    Surprise, surprise, right on schedule progressive Robert Kuttner attacks the 2 percent inflation target in favor of 4 percent

     It all sounds very persuasive, as long as you forget how inflation impoverishes the lower classes and keeps them down so that the elites can continue to milk them like slaves year after year. 4% just does it twice as fast as 2%.

    The little people are an afterthought to the left.

    This is the "inflation is actually good" talk you hear from lefties from time to time.

    Story here.


    Sweden: Still not the model

     


    Tuesday, December 13, 2022

    Another inflation report is out, the data are bad, but they're trying to spin it that inflation is moderating

     The government's chief inflation measure, so-called core inflation which excludes food and energy (third graph), ticked down to 6% in November. Big whoop. Core inflation has now averaged 6.3% throughout 2022, and was actually slightly lower year over year for two months in the summer than it was in November.

    The Fed is failing in its effort to bring inflation down, plain and simple.

    Higher prices are the new normal.

    Meanwhile food inflation is up 12% year over year after peaking above 13% in the summer. Under Trump food inflation was practically non-existent, but Americans have been forced to cope with it month after month for over a year now, with no end in sight.

    And energy inflation year over year has been north of 13% for 21 consecutive months. Go ahead. Count 'em. Under Trump we actually had energy disinflation because his administration, unlike Biden's, enthusiastically supported fracking.

    Rising food and energy costs are absolutely core, especially when they deliver a one-two punch to the gut like this.

    The people hardest hit don't have a voice, however. They never do. The chattering classes are doing just fine, and all they want to talk about is nonsense. Their lot is with the profiteers from inflation, not with the bottom half of the country.

    The poor get poorer.

    Same as it ever was.





    The Department of Energy has fired Sam Brinton according to The Daily Beast last night

     


    Monday, December 12, 2022

    Saturday, December 10, 2022

    The thing on the right is now facing two charges for luggage theft

     That's some weird fetish :

    Sam Brinton [is] the deputy assistant secretary for spent fuel and waste disposition at the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy.



    The 39 House Republicans Who Voted for the Same-Sex Marriage Bill, annotated

     The New York Times :

    • Representative Kelly Armstrong of North Dakota

    • Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska [re-elected 2022 with 51.3% of the vote]

    • Representative Ken Calvert of California [re-elected 2022 with 52.3% of the vote]

    • Representative Kat Cammack of Florida

    • Representative Mike Carey of Ohio

    • Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming [voted to impeach Trump, defeated in 2022 primary]

    • Representative John Curtis of Utah

    • Representative Rodney Davis of Illinois [defeated in 2022 primary by fellow Republican in redistricting-forced battle]

    • Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota [House GOP Majority Whip]

    • Representative Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania

    • *Representative Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin [flipped from Nay in summer to Yea now]

    • Representative Andrew Garbarino of New York

    • Representative Mike Garcia of California

    • Representative Carlos Gimenez of Florida

    • Representative Tony Gonzalez of Texas

    • Representative Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio [voted to impeach Trump, retiring]

    • *Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington [voted to impeach Trump, defeated in 2022 primary, flipped from Nay in summer to Yea now]

    • Representative Ashley Hinson of Iowa

    • Representative Darrell Issa of California

    • Representative Ch[r]is Jacobs of New York [retiring after flipping position on guns after Buffalo mass shooting and angering supporters]

    • Representative David Joyce of Ohio [leader of House Republican moderate caucus]

    • Representative John Katko of New York [voted to impeach Trump, retiring]

    • Representative Nancy Mace of South Carolina

    • Representative Nicole Malliotakis of New York

    • Representative Peter Meijer of Michigan [voted to impeach Trump, defeated in 2022 primary]

    • Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa

    • Representative Blake Moore of Utah

    • Representative Dan Newhouse of Washington [voted to impeach Trump]

    • Representative Jay Obernolte of California

    • Representative Tom Rice of South Carolina [voted to impeach Trump, defeated in 2022 primary]

    • Representative Mike Simpson of Idaho

    • Representative Elise Stefanik of New York

    • Representative Bryan Steil of Wisconsin

    • Representative Chris Stewart of Utah

    • Representative Mike Turner of Ohio

    • Representative Fred Upton of Michigan [voted to impeach Trump, retiring]

    • Representative David Valadao of California [voted to impeach Trump, re-elected with 51.5% of the vote]

    • Representative Ann Wagner of Missouri [Republican phony of the year LOL: “This district is home to me, and there is no better feeling than representing our conservative, Midwest values in Congress.”]

    • Representative Tim Waltz of Florida [LOL: NYT has Democrat Tim Walz, Minnesota Governor, on the brain; the actual name is Republican US Rep. Michael Waltz, who ran unopposed in FL-6 and was re-elected in 2022; the newspaper of record smdh]



    Thursday, December 8, 2022

    If you haven't saved enough for an emergency, it's on you, and borrowing money for an emergency when you have it is another stupid thing which is on you

    Two stupids don't make a smart.

     

    “It’s a terrible idea to take money out of your 401(k),” said Ted Jenkin, a certified financial planner and co-founder of oXYGen Financial, based in Atlanta. ...

    Households should weigh all their options for cash before resorting to tapping a 401(k) plan, said Jenkin, a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

    For example, households without an emergency fund might be able to free up money for a relatively small short-term cash need by canceling or reducing membership plans, or by selling little-used or unneeded items on Facebook Marketplace or a garage sale, he said. A short-term loan or home equity line of credit would generally also be better than tapping a 401(k).

    More.

    There's nothing like paying a steep price for a mistake to keep you from making it again. Only morons pay twice.

     

    What else would you expect someone to say who makes his living selling retirement products?


     

    Only morons borrow money for weddings

     

    39 House Republicans join 12 Senate Republicans to pass Democrat bill overthrowing the Defense of Marriage Act

     The Respect for Marriage Act passed the Democratic-led House in a 258-169-1 vote, as 39 Republicans joined all Democrats in supporting it. It also won bipartisan support in the Democratic-controlled Senate in late November: 12 GOP senators crossed party lines to vote for the legislation. ...

    The Respect for Marriage Act formally repeals the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which was signed into law by then-President Bill Clinton. That bill denied same-sex couples federal benefits and permitted states to refuse to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states.

    The Supreme Court would later go on to invalidate the key provisions of DOMA in two watershed rulings, United States v. Windsor and Obergefell v. Hodges in 2013 and 2015, respectively.

    Roberts, Scalia, Thomas and Alito dissented in Windsor against Kennedy in 2013, same in Hodges in 2015.

    There's always a minority of Republicans who exist only to advance the Democrats' godless agenda. 

    It's never the other way around, unless it has to do with money.

    Story.

    Tuesday, December 6, 2022

    Sunday, December 4, 2022

    KGRR climate update through Nov 2022

    2022 mean average temperature eleven months through Nov = 50.4

    Mean average temperature through Nov since 1892 = 50.0

    28 inches of snow, second highest November on record, all melted now.

     


     


    Wednesday, November 30, 2022

    Jay Powell is a bitter disappointment, pledging today to moderate rate hikes when he's hardly begun to fight inflation after waiting a year to start

     Jay Powell is such a clown:

      ". . . it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down,” he added. “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”

    Story.

    Making sure his pals profit under the umbrella of inflationary pressures is worse than insider trading, because we all pay.

    We're the marks!

    I haven't been this disappointed in a federal official since Donald Trump betrayed his immigration promises in 2017-2018.

    And how did stocks respond?



    Monday, November 28, 2022

    Life insurance payouts soared past $100 billion in 2021 as pandemic took over 800,000 total US lives by year end

     Payouts rose 11% in 2021 to $100.19 billion, most likely due to the pandemic, according to the American Council of Life Insurers. The increase was on the heels of a 15% year-over-year rise in 2020, when death-benefit payments totaled $90.43 billion. ... The year-over-year increases are among the largest since the 1918 flu pandemic, when payments surged 41%. They are far above the 4.9% average from 2011 to 2021, the ACLI said. Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. jumped 20% in 2021 to approximately 460,000, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    More.



    Sunday, November 27, 2022

    An unappreciated factor in the relatively poor Republican performance in Election 2022 is the death of many of their voters due to the pandemic

     Older voters skew Republican, and COVID-19 victims skew overwhelmingly older.

    A 3- to 4-point Republican advantage among a million deaths of older Americans is up to 40,000 voters nationwide who didn't vote in the election, which doesn't seem like much until you consider that 15 US House races were won by margins of 50% and a fraction.

    Republicans won 6 of those races, with one additional race undecided with the Republican leading by just 600 votes.

    But Democrats won 8 of those races, and each one by approximately 1,300 to 7,000 votes versus all competitors. In four of those races, with Republican opponents only, the Democrats won by just 1,300 to 3,000 votes.





    Saturday, November 26, 2022

    The legacy of Pelosi's US House


    Thus was the building left
    Ridiculous; and the work confusion nam'd.
     
    -- John Milton

    Come and take it, Joe