Fed Chair Jerome Powell Comedy Hour: All those hordes of illegals coming across the border the last two years have been filling the jobs employers couldn't fill, making the economy grow 3%

 The laughs are here:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Immigration The Reason Why The Economy Grew 3% In A Year, "We've Needed More People":

Our economy has been short labor and probably still is if you talk to and we do talk to a lot of business people, it is still difficult to hire for many, many companies. So we've needed more people. But what happened over the course of last year is to a much greater extent than had been thought. Immigration moved up quite a bit over the last two years.     

 Meanwhile, full time as a percentage of civilian population DROPPED year over year in the first quarter, according to the employment numbers out today, from 49.7% in 1Q2023 to 49.2% in 1Q2024.

Joe Biden eeks out another good year for jobs as 2023 ends with 50.2% employed full time as a percent of population on an average annual basis

 December 2023 came in at 49.5%. Full time usually peaks in summer, and bottoms in winter. January and February 2023 had come in at 49.3% and 49.7% respectively.

Still not quite as good as Trump 2019, which itself wasn't close to what we are capable of as a country:

Full time employment has now averaged 50.3% through eleven months of 2023

 

There's a lot of clucking out there about multiple job holding

 Multiple job holding seems high at nearly 8.4 million, here.

But as a percent of the employed it is not, currently at 5.2%. In the go-go 1990s it was above 6%.

Multiple job holding generally is a sign of opportunity and good times, not economic stress and bad times. Obviously there is always a percentage of the workforce which can't find full-time work and works two part-time jobs. They now number almost 2 million, a very small part of the employment universe, which is near all-time highs in the range of 161 million.

Full-time employment in October was still strong at 50.4% of civilian population

 The ten month average holds at 50.3%, which is still higher than full year 2022.

We shall see.

Age discrimination is widespread and has been for years, everyone just shrugs

 Don't complain when it happens to you. No one cares.

 

More than half, 56%, of full-time workers in their early 50s get pushed out of their jobs (due to circumstances like a layoff) before they’re ready to retire, according to a 2018 paper published by the Urban Institute.

“Job loss at older ages is really consequential,” said Johnson, a report co-author. He attributes much of that workplace dynamic to ageism.

Just 10% who suffered an involuntary job separation in their early 50s ever earn as much per week after their separation as before it, the Urban Institute paper said. In other words, 90% earn less — “often substantially less,” Johnson said.

Johnson’s research shows that in the aftermath of the Great Recession (from 2008 through 2012), workers 50 to 61 years old who lost a job were 20% less likely to be reemployed than workers in their 20s and early 30s. Those age 62 and older were 50% less likely to have a new job.

 

More.

Full time employment remained strong in September 2023 at 50.3% of population

 Full time also still averages 50.3% for the first nine months of 2023.

Recession delayed, again.

Compare previous full year averages:

 

Full-time employment as a percentage of US civilian noninstitutional population held steady at 50.7% in August

 YTD the average ticked up to 50.3% from 50.2% in July.

Compare with prior full years:

 

Full time employment as a percentage of population fell to 50.7% in July from 50.9% in June

 Year to date the average is still 50.2%.

Compare with prior full years:

 

Recession delayed again: Full-time employment in June 2023 and 1H2023 holds its own with full-year 2022

Full time employment as a percentage of population hit 50.92% in June 2023.

 

In June 2022 the figure was 50.64%.

 

The average for 1H2023 is 50.12, which compares favorably with full year 2022 at 50.1.

 

135.86 million full-time is a new record high.

 

 

 

Give it up, bro

 KAEPERNICK STILL ATTEMPTING NFL COMEBACK...

Full time employment in May 2023 was a solid 50.47% of civilian population, similar to 2019 levels: Recession delayed

 The measure averaged 49.7% in 1Q2023, but climbed in April to 50.2% and to 50.4% now.

Full time usually peaks in the summer.

Full time jobs rebound in April 2023

 Full time employment as a percentage of civilian population in April 2023 came in at 50.2%, smartly ahead of 1Q2023 at 49.7 and ahead of 2022 whole year average 50.1%. Full time peaks in summer.

Recession delayed again.

What recession? Full time recovers to 50.1% of population in March 2023, last year's average level

 The average level for 1Q2023 is 49.70%.

Full time usually peaks over the summer months.

Stuff that's been in the news since March 6th

 Xi Jinpingpong blamed the US for the first time for his domestic failures, according to the Wall Street Journal. He's a commie reactionary with Chinese characteristics. Not a good sign of what's to come.

Some cracker Republican in Florida wants bloggers to register like lobbyists, and Ron DeSantis finally came out against that, thankfully. A little late, though. Newt beat him to it.

Vivek Ramaswamy says CPAC shook him down for $$$$ in exchange for which they'd see to it he did better in the straw poll. There's no report that Matt Schlapp also asked for a reach-around.

LIBOR surpassed 5% for the first time in 15 years on Monday.

Georgia fired up a nuclear power reactor this week. The country now has 93 operating. 67 were never finished after Three Mile Island. 

A dog and her pups were rescued alive and well from a basement in Turkey more than a month after the Feb 6 earthquake. The death toll is up to 52k.

Thousands of Iranian schoolgirls are being systematically poisoned in Iran. There was a similar incident in Afghanistan during the first Obama administration. Rag-headed heathen bastards.

South Africa is going the way of Rhodesia. 

The UST yield curve aggregate made a new high 4.674% Wednesday v Fed Funds Effective Rate 4.57.

The Obama of Big Oil said peak production from 2019 will never be surpassed.

Pundits who predict inflation won't spiral like the 1970s fail to understand that the price of energy inputs is determinative. Unless energy costs come down big, we're in for it.

Cumulative deaths per million from C-19 in the US are 3,285. In Africa just 181. Follow the science.

The tide is turning on the Wuhan Lab Leak Theory of the origin of C-19 in the press.

Anthony Fauci has authored a paper in CELL which calls for better vaccines than the ones we've got, whether experimental or not. No kidding.

Silicon Valley Bank failed today, the first failure since 2020 when there were four. There was a huge flight to safety. Stocks sold off and longer dated Treasuries rallied 3.45%. The yield curve aggregate plunged 230bp, 3.82%.

Full time employment rose a little in Feb to 49.66% of civilian population. The average last year was 50.1%. 

Both full time jobs and overall civilian employment in Jan 2023 remain relatively strong but both are far from US potential: 12 million more could be working but are not

Full time as a percentage of civilian population dropped to 49.32% in January 2023 from 49.77% in December.

 

Peak full time at 53.6% in 2000 applied to 2023 would mean 10 million more working full time than actually do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Civilian employment as a percentage of civilian population dropped to 59.67% in January 2023 from 59.99% in December.

 

Peak employment at 64.4% in 2000 applied to 2023 would mean 12 million more working at all jobs than actually do.

 

Pathetic underperformance.

 

The shortfall with peak manufacturing jobs in 1979 at 19.4 million was 6.6 million in 2022. 

 

 

Full time employment finished 2022 pretty strong, given the circumstances

 Full time in December 2022 was 49.76% of civilian population.

The full year 2022 average was 50.09%.

This still falls short of 2019, and is woefully underperforming even at that level, but considering the economic problems of 2022 the end result is pretty good.

 

 

Full time employment averaged a surprisingly strong 50.1% for the first ten months of 2022 in Friday's report

 Still lower than 2019 but pretty good given the circumstances.

The percentage holding full-time jobs through September 2022 held above 50%, disappointing the ubiquitous advocates of a Fed interest rate pivot

 Full time as a percentage of civilian population in September was 50.3%, and for 2022 through September averaged 50.15%.

Not bad, considering.

The Fed will see little evidence in this figure that its interest rate increase policy is harming employment.

Stocks on Friday collapsed after a head fake to start the week to within 1.5% of the 52-week lows set a week ago.

Long term investment grade bonds and US Treasury securities also revisited lows from 9/27/22, coming within pennies of those benchmarks.

30-year yield for UST is back up to 3.86%. It was 3.87% on 9/27. At the beginning of 2022, yield was a paltry 2.01% by comparison.

UK gilts are experiencing the same action despite the Bank of England intervening to buy bonds. 

The bond crisis is not over.

With yields soaring across the board no one wants to own the lower paying outstanding issues, which are legion, destroying their value.

But everything in the global economy is based on those, piled up in earnest after The Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and in orgiastic frenzy afterwards during the late pandemic.

Bond yields in 2022 are telling you that they are overvalued by 92%.

Stock market valuation is telling you a similar thing.

From 1938 through 2019 the median ratio of the S&P 500 to GDP is 81. In 2020 we averaged 154, or 90% overvalued.

This is the major deflationary headwind facing the world, the other side of the COVID-19 inflationary shock coin.

Push here, it comes out over there.

Modern central banking cannot escape this conundrum any more than the gold standard could.

The only thing the individual can do in this situation is to owe nothing and save everything, preferably in your hands.

Good luck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In July 2022 full time employment as a percentage of civilian population reached 50.7%

 Full time usually peaks in the summer.

The average year to date through July is 50.06%.