In Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll in Pennsylvania, it's still the economy, stupid: More important to women voters than abortion by 29 points, the cost of everyday goods being the most important economic factor

 The women shop. The women remember.

The massive poll results for seven swing states is available here.

The women think Trump is the one to fix it, by 11 points.

 

 

Maybe Trump is polling well because people remember a little actual food deflation under him, unlike now

 

Alfredo Ortiz for The Messenger discovers that permanently higher food prices are sticking it to consumers

 He points to food prices having gone up about 20% since Biden took office, here, because this index is up that much since Biden took office. He wonders why food prices are actually up much more than that.

He obviously doesn't understand how this works.

On a quarterly measure, and year over year, the increases for this index are as follows after Biden taking office in 1Q2021:

2Q2021 0.9%

3Q         3.3%

4Q         6.1%

1Q2022 8.7%

2Q       11.6%

3Q       13.2%

4Q       12.1%

1Q2023  9.9%

2Q          5.9%

3Q          3.0%.

 

Assume the worst example from the shopper's list:

 

"A pound of turkey breast went from $3.14 to $6.72, a 114% increase" from late 2020 until now.

 

$3.14 goes to $3.17 in 2Q2021, and so on down the list until you come up with $6.41 by 3Q2023, pretty close to the $6.72 from the example. Remember this index is for all food at home, not turkey specifically nor any other individual food item. Some food prices go up more than others. 

 

There's actually a turkey index. It's up a whopping 214%, not 20%. The shopper could be paying a lot more than $6.72 right now. Year over year prices were up 20% in 2021, and 72% in 2022 in the wake of an avian flu epidemic which wiped out the supply. In the first half of 2023 prices were up another 47% year over year.

Unless there's actual deflation in overall food prices, that is, sustained negative year over year reports instead of quarterly increase yoy after quarterly increase, higher prices are here to stay.

Average protein prices per pound August 2023 vs. 2019 annual average

Ground Beef: $5.076 / $3.807, up 33.3%

Pork Chops: $4.359 / $3.339, up 30.5%

Bacon: $6.502 / $5.613, up 15.8%

Chicken: $1.958 / $1.495, up 30.97%

Dozen eggs: $2.043 / $1.396, up 46.3%

Dried beans: $1.702 / $1.344, up 26.6%

Gallon milk: $3.927 / $3.036, up 29.3%

Cheddar cheese: $5.897 / $5.308, up 11.1%

Cup of yogurt: $1.576 / $1.115, up 41.3%

Inflation remains a big problem in today's Consumer Price Index data

Services inflation is driving inflation now, 7.6% year over year in February. In a primarily service economy that's deeply serious. Wage and salary increases have penetrated deeply into everything, driving up the cost of using the services those people provide.

Electricity inflation is running at 12.9% year over year. 

Food inflation is still running at 9.5% year over year.

Overall core inflation in this data is at 5.5% year over year, more than double than under Trump.

Another inflation report is out, the data are bad, but they're trying to spin it that inflation is moderating

 The government's chief inflation measure, so-called core inflation which excludes food and energy (third graph), ticked down to 6% in November. Big whoop. Core inflation has now averaged 6.3% throughout 2022, and was actually slightly lower year over year for two months in the summer than it was in November.

The Fed is failing in its effort to bring inflation down, plain and simple.

Higher prices are the new normal.

Meanwhile food inflation is up 12% year over year after peaking above 13% in the summer. Under Trump food inflation was practically non-existent, but Americans have been forced to cope with it month after month for over a year now, with no end in sight.

And energy inflation year over year has been north of 13% for 21 consecutive months. Go ahead. Count 'em. Under Trump we actually had energy disinflation because his administration, unlike Biden's, enthusiastically supported fracking.

Rising food and energy costs are absolutely core, especially when they deliver a one-two punch to the gut like this.

The people hardest hit don't have a voice, however. They never do. The chattering classes are doing just fine, and all they want to talk about is nonsense. Their lot is with the profiteers from inflation, not with the bottom half of the country.

The poor get poorer.

Same as it ever was.

The Consumer Has Been Wiped Out By Food And Energy Inflation Since 2007

energy inflation up 7.75%

food inflation up 15%

average hourly earnings up 14.1%

Average hourly earnings for all employees are up 14.1% from November 2007 to November 2013, but energy inflation is up 7.75% and food inflation is up 15% over the same period.

You can't eat a cheaper iPhone.