Core pce inflation, which excludes food and energy measures, is still high at 3.5% year over year in October 2023, down 0.2 points from September or 5.4%

 Price increases at 3.5% instead of 3.7% year over year. This level remains outside of most people's experience since the late 1990s.

The broad measure fell to 3.0% from 3.4%. The energy goods and services component yoy has been negative, that is deflationary, for eight months in a row. The food component was up 2.0% year over year in October but is now in its tenth month of declines out of twelve on a year over year measure monthly.

Declining energy input costs have been the story behind declining inflation measures overall, primarily natural gas which is twice as important to the U.S. economy as gasoline on a BTU basis.

The Biden administration's green energy policy is at war with the reason for the happy circumstance of declining inflation measures it finds itself in, and Biden could be sailing to re-election if he were instead supporting fossil fuel production, which would slay the inflation dragon dead.

Core pce inflation at 3.7% yoy in September 2023: Two years and five months in excess of 3%

 Overall pce inflation has been stuck at 3.4% yoy for three months running as of Sep 2023, which indicates to me the Fed will at the very least keep rates where they are, or possibly raise them again as progress has stalled.

 

overall

core

 

Fox Business' broad inflation report contained an error

 Here's Megan Henney, September 29th :

An inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve ticked higher in August as steep prices continue to squeeze millions of U.S. households.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index showed that consumer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month, according to the Labor Department. On an annual basis, prices climbed 3.5% — up from 3.3% recorded the previous month, underscoring the challenge of taming high inflation.

She's referring to PCEPI. 

That measure isn't up from 3.3% the previous month. It's up from 3.4%, and 3.2% the month before that.

Jeff Cox at CNBC got it right, same day, as usual:

Including food and energy, headline PCE increased 0.4% on the month and 3.5% from a year ago. Headline inflation has been creeping higher in recent months after hitting 3.2% in June.

Forbes also had it right, because it actually checked the most recent data, which Fox evidently did not:

The most recent PCE price index data was released on September 29, 2023, covering the month of August. The headline August PCE inflation figure was +3.5% year over year, which was up slightly from the revised annual rate of +3.4% in July.