Speaking of 13 quarters of Joe Biden inflation

 Biden's 13th-Quarter Approval Average Lowest Historically

Averages 38.7% job approval

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Joe Biden averaged 38.7% job approval during his recently completed 13^th quarter in office, which began on Jan. 20 and ended April 19. None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower 13^th-quarter average than Biden. ... From a broader historical perspective, Biden’s most recent quarterly average ranks 277^th out of 314 presidential quarters in Gallup records dating to 1945. That puts it in the bottom 12% of all presidential quarters.

Core pce inflation still 2.8% in March 2024, still 75% worse than under Trump for a second consecutive month

 Biden's 1Q2024 average is 2.86% year over year, making thirteen quarters averaging 4.20% average yoy inflation vs. Trump's 1.6%, 163% worse.

Trump never had a single quarter higher than 1.97% yoy.

At 4.1% in 1Q2024 the so-called supercore inflation rate is still double the 2010-2020 average of 2.07%

 Way to go, Brandon!

March yoy came in at 4.8%. Ouch.

 

They promised us a soft landing and by golly they're giving it to us, good and hard

 We're on the glide path of permanent 3.8% year over year core inflation. 

 

 

 

Core pce inflation was 2.8% year over year in February 2024, but averaged just 1.6% for four years under Donald Trump

The core pce inflation rate currently is still 75% worse than Trump's 1.6%.

The three year Biden average is 4.31%, which is 169% worse than under Trump.

Real Clear Politics currently shows an average of 64.6% saying the country is on the wrong track.

 

Core CPI inflation pops 0.6% monthly in January and again in February 2024

 Doubleplusnotgood.

Year over year in February core cpi inflation is still elevated at 3.8%.

The near term trend has definitely turned higher again.

 

 

 

Core inflation measure for January 2024 is . . . not good

 Year over year we're still at 2.8%, still well above 2.0.

The monthly pop of .4% is high relative to anything in the last year.

The .5 change in the index was . . . pretty dang big.

The drive by media always spins this as "expected" when consensus estimates are confirmed, but that doesn't make them good.

 

Bob Nardelli gets it

 "The general population will not be duped by this aversion [sic; read diversion] to try and blame inflation on corporate America. It starts at the raw materials, it starts at transportation, it starts at energy," former Home Depot and Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli said on "Cavuto: Coast to Coast" Monday. "A whole host of things that are driving this up, wage increases." ...

"This is all about, I think, trying to buy votes. This is all about an administration that is out of control," he continued. "We have a strong bias towards spending versus having a conservative policy or a sustainable future."

More.

Core cpi inflation seasonally adjusted pops 0.4% in Jan 2024: month over month measure trending ever higher since Jun 2023, seven months

 

But you said inflation was coming down!

 

Another Fed interest rate pause and dashed hopes for a March rate cut, so the greedy money men throw a little temper tantrum

 Core inflation has a long way to go before it's like it was in the Trump era.

Meanwhile the little people continue to pay, and pay, and pay.

In Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll in Pennsylvania, it's still the economy, stupid: More important to women voters than abortion by 29 points, the cost of everyday goods being the most important economic factor

 The women shop. The women remember.

The massive poll results for seven swing states is available here.

The women think Trump is the one to fix it, by 11 points.

 

 

Core pce inflation is out and shows itself running ahead of the 10-year US Treasury yield for four consecutive years 2020-2023, which is unprecedented

Jerome Powell is the biggest phony inflation fighter the country has ever seen.

He was appointed by Trump! So much winning!

Core pce inflation previously exceeded the ten year yield in 1974-75 and in 2012 (barely).

The Fed's primary inflation-fighting tool has been the Federal Funds Rate, but it let inflation run wildly out of control before even lifting a finger to stop it in March 2022 when the Fed finally acted and started raising the rate.

It is a shameful episode which has benefited businesses which hiked prices higher than inflation to goose profits, and the federal government which desperately needed to devalue its mounting debts, all at the expense of the average American.

The lack of outrage over this is a study in the depth of American servitude. Slavery didn't end in 1865 for African Americans. It became the common lot of us all.

 

 

Jay Powell's inflation has been bery bery good for corporate profits and a federal government drunk on debt

 

Jay Powell's wimpy response to inflation let core CPI inflation run ahead of the US 10-year for an unprecedented five consecutive years 2019-2023 on an average annual basis

 Jay Powell is much worse than Burns.

Jay is the money men's best friend ever.

 

3Q2023 core inflation at 2% vindicates Powell's March 2021 prediction that inflation would be transitory

 

Inflation rate at 4% year over year two months in a row is not the soft landing we were promised

 

Core pce inflation, which excludes food and energy measures, is still high at 3.5% year over year in October 2023, down 0.2 points from September or 5.4%

 Price increases at 3.5% instead of 3.7% year over year. This level remains outside of most people's experience since the late 1990s.

The broad measure fell to 3.0% from 3.4%. The energy goods and services component yoy has been negative, that is deflationary, for eight months in a row. The food component was up 2.0% year over year in October but is now in its tenth month of declines out of twelve on a year over year measure monthly.

Declining energy input costs have been the story behind declining inflation measures overall, primarily natural gas which is twice as important to the U.S. economy as gasoline on a BTU basis.

The Biden administration's green energy policy is at war with the reason for the happy circumstance of declining inflation measures it finds itself in, and Biden could be sailing to re-election if he were instead supporting fossil fuel production, which would slay the inflation dragon dead.

Core pce inflation at 3.7% yoy in September 2023: Two years and five months in excess of 3%

 Overall pce inflation has been stuck at 3.4% yoy for three months running as of Sep 2023, which indicates to me the Fed will at the very least keep rates where they are, or possibly raise them again as progress has stalled.

 

overall

core

 

Core consumer price inflation year over year continues in excess of 4% in September 2023

 

The three year and five month embarrassment of core inflation higher than the 10-year Treasury yield finally ended in August

 Yield for the 10-year US Treasury rose to an average 4.17% in August 2023 while core inflation year over year fell to 3.87% in August 2023.

This ends the 3-year 5-month run where core inflation exceeded the 10-year yield, something which has never happened in the data.

The only time core inflation outran the 10-year previously for a comparable period was in 1974 and 1975 when core inflation averaged 7.91% and 8.35% vs. the 10-year yield which averaged 7.56% and 7.99% respectively.

That lackadaisical response to inflation by the Federal Reserve under Arthur F. Burns (1970-1978) prefigured the 1980 resurgence of core inflation to 9.19%. Under his successor Paul Volcker, interest rates were hiked to unprecedented levels to curb inflation. The 10-year yield rose to an average of 13.92% in 1981 as a result.

The current fear is that the Powell Fed has set up the economy for a repeat of this awful period of inflation.

Whatever is said about it, there is no question that inflation is a benefit to the Federal government because it depends on borrowing to finance deficit spending and consequently the debt, now at an unprecedented $33 trillion. Inflation simply reduces that cost to the government over time by making the dollars previously borrowed worth less.

It is true that new borrowing costs much more, but the debt mountain mammoth in the living room is the more pressing problem. This is why the cognoscenti teach that inflation is a good thing.

Extending the duration of inflation at the currently relatively low level has been in the government's interest. The costs born by the public in the form of higher prices for goods, services, and borrowing are becoming routinized so that the voters are becoming inured to the deleterious effects for them while clueless of the benefits for the debt mongers. 

This is particularly the case for voters who have no memory of that horrible inflation which gave rise to the backlash represented by Ronald Reagan's election in 1980, and who now vastly outnumber those who still remember.

It should not be forgotten that Jimmy Carter got elected in 1976 anyway, after the Burns' inflation. The voters then took it all in stride, too, until they didn't.

Same as it ever was.