Trump beat Hillary by 146,182 votes in Iowa in 2016.
The 2016 turnout was only 25,000 lower than in 2012, but 20,000 higher than in 2008.
In the last three presidential elections the turnout high in Iowa was in 2012 at 1.582 million.
Friday, November 11, 2016
#NeverTrump Sen. Kelly "Free Condoms" Ayotte defeated in NH by 743 votes
Poster girl for the muddled message.
On the third day after Election 2016 the totals remain incomplete in five states
IL 1% out
WA 24% out
NJ 1% out
UT 18% out
OR 1% out
WA 24% out
NJ 1% out
UT 18% out
OR 1% out
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Revulsion Election update: Trump got lucky, underperformed Romney by 1.4 million votes, McCain by 450,000 votes
Hillary underperformed Obama 2012 by 6.2 million, Obama 2008 by . . . 9.8 million.
Democrats elected Trump by not voting for Hillary.
Rush Limbaugh is repeating stupid from National Review, that Trump could have beaten Obama in 2012
This will become the new factoid to replace the "94 million not working but eating" myth and the "4 million stayed home in 2012" myth and the 99ers myth.
Heavy sigh.
Revulsion for Hillary: Some Trump victories wholly dependent on turnout undershooting 2008 levels in four high population states
TX: turnout up 0.8 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.814 million
FL: turnout up 1.0 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.12 million
PA: turnout down by 100 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 68 thousand
OH: turnout down by 400 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 454 thousand
GA: turnout up 0.1 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.231 million
NC: turnout up 0.4 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.177 million
MI: turnout down by 200 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 12 thousand
AZ: turnout down by 300 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 84 thousand
The revulsion for Hillary election: In the top 14 states by population, 2016 turnout undershot 2008 by 5.4 million net
CA: down 4.7 million
TX: up 0.8 million
FL: up 1.0
NY: down 0.5
IL: down 0.1
PA: down 0.1
OH: down 0.4
GA: up 0.1
NC: up 0.4
MI: down 0.2
NJ: down 0.7
VA: up 0.2
WA: down 0.9
AZ: down 0.3
Back out CA and the net down is 0.7 million from 2008.
Trump states had turnout net up 1.3 million from 2008. In the traditionally Democrat states Trump won, it appears to be partly due to Democrats not turning out for Hillary. Only in VA did Trump lose where turn out was up from 2008.
Clinton states apart from CA had turnout net down 2 million from 2008.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
National Review contributor tries to make the case that Trump 2016 would have beaten Obama 2012
The author repeatedly mentions that he knows he's comparing apples to oranges but never adjusts his figures for population growth over the period.
As of this morning, Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.9 million votes, but the country has grown by 9 million since 2012.
The Trump performance figure in 2016 presupposes having so much more to work with from the increased population growth but still comes up short of Romney who had so much less to work with because of a smaller population.
Trump toyed with the idea of competing in 2012 but wisely left Romney to do that and fail, knowing instinctively that the shiny, happy and clean novelty incumbent was going to be very hard to beat.
Obama was beatable in 2012, had fewer than 500,000 votes in four states east of the Mississippi gone a different way, but Romney possessed insufficient charisma compared to Obama, too few boots on the ground to make up for that, and the formidable problem of Obama's incumbency.
And on top of all that, Romney was a lousy candidate. His wife had to reassure us that "Mitt doesn't change positions".
As with all fortunes from Chinese cookies, always add "in bed" for maximum amusement.
Polling in Wisconsin was the poster boy for polling failure in 2016
From the story here:
There were no surveys released this year from Wisconsin that showed Trump with a lead.
Clinton held a 6.5 point lead in the Badger State heading into Election Day, and the state was not even discussed as on par with Michigan or Pennsylvania as a potential blue state pick-up for Trump.
Trump’s victory in Wisconsin — a state that has not gone for the GOP nominee since 1984 — helped him seal the deal.
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.
The revulsion election, Obama vs. Hillary, shows 10.25 million missing Democrat voters, and Trump underperforming both Romney and McCain
Obama garnered 69.499 million votes in 2008, so far in 2016 Hillary has just 59.245 million.
Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.912 million votes, 59.022 million to 60.934 million, and also McCain, who collected 59.950 million votes in 2008, by just shy of 1 million votes.
Expect changes to these spreads as the 2016 numbers finalize.
The revulsion election update: turnout down 3.6% from 2012
So far 124.6 million have voted in 2016, down 4.6 million from 2012 when 129.2 million voted.
Expect revisions in this space in coming days.
That useless rag USA Today says turnout was up 4.7%, missing the revulsion election
"Voter turnout up 4.7% around the country", says that useless rag USA Away.
The data in the upper Midwest says otherwise.
In Michigan, turnout was 4.7 million, a little lower than in 2012 when 4.8 million showed up. In 2008 5 million did.
In Wisconsin, turnout was 2.9 million vs. 3.1 million in 2012 and 3 million in 2008.
In Pennsylvania 6 million turned out yesterday, the same as in 2008, up slightly from 2012's 5.8 million.
In Ohio there's been a steady decline since 2008 when 5.7 million turned out. In 2012 it fell to 5.6 million and just 5.3 million in Election 2016.
When the final numbers come in, I'll bet we'll see this phenomenon of suppressed turnout in other places as well. And generally speaking, suppressed turnout favors Republicans because Republicans are often more energized, more scrupulous and more dutiful, as was the case yesterday.
What we had here was a revulsion election. People stayed home because they couldn't vote for either candidate. And because the voters found Hillary more intolerable than The Donald, Mr. Trump is our new president. The smoke generated by the ugliness of the battle on the field obscured the fact of troops staying behind in camp.
In the end America chose the rake over the robber, which was the right choice.
But don't confuse it with a sea change.
Polling on the morning of Election 2016 in the toss-ups vs. the outcome
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| CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE |
Florida: Trump wins by 1.4, vs. 0.2 predicted
Maine CD2: Trump wins by 9.8 with 90% counted vs. 0.5 predicted
New Hampshire: Clinton wins by 0.6 vs. 0.3 with 97% counted (!)
Nevada: Clinton wins by 2.4 vs. Trump predicted by 0.8
North Carolina: Trump wins by 3.8 vs. 1.0 predicted
Pennsylvania: Trump wins by 1.1 vs. Clinton predicted by 1.9
Colorado: Clinton wins by 2.2 with 88% counted vs. 2.9 predicted
Iowa: Trump wins by 9.4 with 99% counted vs. 3.0 predicted
Michigan: Trump winning by 0.3 vs. Clinton predicted by 3.4
Ohio: Trump wins by 8.6 vs. 3.5 predicted
Arizona: Trump wins by 4.0 with 98% counted vs. 4.0 predicted (!)
Maine: Clinton wins by 3.0 with 91% counted vs. 4.5 predicted
Georgia: Trump wins by 5.7 vs. 4.8 predicted
Virginia: Clinton wins by 4.7 with 99% counted vs. 5.0 predicted
New Mexico: Clinton wins by 8.3 vs. 5.0 predicted
Wisconsin: Trump wins by 1.0 vs. Clinton predicted by 6.5 (arguably the biggest upset of the evening)
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