Winter's coming . . .

. . . it's 65 degrees F right now in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

The winter, January through March, is forecast to be colder and snowier than normal.

How to know the WaPo/ABCNews poll showing Clinton +8 overpolled northeastern liberals

The poll here ("detailed" view), still included in the Real Clear Politics presidential average this morning, gives away its northern liberal pedigree in the ZIKA questions appearing at the end.

Apart from the fact that Republicans represented only 23% of the sample, by question 33 you start to get the feeling that this poll comes primarily from the Acela Northeast corridor where the denizens of the Establishment live and have a clear interest in seeing the status quo maintained: Fully 58% want an Establishment president in November, not an outsider like Donald Trump.

This feeling is confirmed by question 48: Just 35% are somewhat or very worried about a ZIKA outbreak personally affecting them. Well of course not, not if you live up north. What? Me worry?

In question 49, the last in the poll, fully 69% are somewhat or very convinced that the Feds can handle anything ZIKA throws our way. The Federal Government is nothing if not competent, you see. We ought to know. We work there. Please keep sending your tax dollars to Washington.

Oh yeah, and 56% of them love Bill Clinton.

Once again, this is polling to shape opinion, not measure it. Otherwise known as the Democrats using all means at their disposal to suppress the Republican vote by demoralizing it, trying to get them to believe the election is already over, so you might as well give up now.

Please delete me, let me go . . .

But none of you remember "Release Me", do you?

Hillary didn't have a seizure, she had a Seagram's

Bribery: Hillary approved Russian uranium deal, her foundation got $2.35 million, and she accuses Trump of being pals with Putin

From the San Diego Union-Tribune editorial, here:

[Special interests] are not paying hundreds of thousands of dollars [to the Clintons] to hear shopworn speeches because they expect to obtain profound insights. They want the Clintons’ help, and they’re willing to pay for it.

That is the obvious conclusion to draw from The New York Times’ 2015 bombshell about how a Russian firm obtained control of one-fifth of all U.S. uranium production capacity from 2009-13 — which required approval from then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — while the company’s owner used a Canadian partnership to surreptitiously convey $2.35 million to the Clinton Foundation.

DNC finance director Jordan "no homo" Kaplan is out, returns to full time consulting

Story here, which of course doesn't mention his Wikileaks "no homo" fame.

Another reason to throw Turkey out of NATO: age of consent for sex lowered to 12

Story here.

Crack pusher given early release by Obama in August 2014 killed three in January 2016, now eligible for death penalty

Way to go, Brownie! Your man slit the throats of children, who could have been yours.

Story here, here and here.

"A convicted crack dealer who left prison early as part of the Obama administration’s mass release of federal inmates has been indicted by a grand jury for fatally stabbing his ex-girlfriend and her two kids in Columbus, Ohio. The gory crime drew national attention because the children, ages 7 and 10, were murdered to eliminate them as witnesses in the brutal massacre of their 32-year-old mother."

Hillary actually took twice as much money from the Saudis as Manafort supposedly took from "Ukraine"

$25 million.

Inspector General says Hillary's State Dept. mismanaged $6 billion in contracts

From the story here:

The [Inspector General] alert revealed that State Department officials lost contract files and maintained incomplete contract files, thus exposing taxpayers “to substantial financial losses.” Federal law and State Department policy requires maintenance of all files required to document a government procurement from start to finish.

In a blistering summary, the IG alert said such failures create “conditions conducive to fraud, as corrupt individuals may attempt to conceal evidence of illicit behavior by omitting key documents from the contract file. It impairs the ability of the department to take effective and timely action to protect its interests and, in turn, those of taxpayers. Finally, it limits the ability of the government to punish and deter criminal behavior.”

Polls troll, and Brexit showed the bookies weren't any better

Seen here:

Analysing outcome likelihoods in the real world is a risky business. But if all else fails, you can always rely on the one interest group that has a consistent stake in accurate outcome prediction – betting companies. OddsChecker currently has best odds for a leave vote at 11/4 (27% likely) and stay at 1/3 (75% likely). Make of that what you will.

Mark Belling's right: Hillary's a lying liar and will only continue to lie to you as president

And Donald Trump isn't going to stop being who he is, either.

Better bookmark his Twitter feed.

Hillary suspends campaign Thursday through Saturday to rest, news media shift you to Olympic swimmers' "lies"

Nothing on Hillary's schedule 18th-20th

The only possible headline in the political universe: "Hillary Bush suspends campaign to rest from rigors of the trail".

Notice how Hillary's calendar doesn't treat Sunday as the first day of the week, as in all Christendom?

How the mighty are fallen: The Financial Times calls National Review "establishment GOP"

Here:

"Publications such as the National Review have long been part of the establishment GOP while drawing on outsider status as the Democrats held control of the White House."

That whir you're hearing is William F. Buckley, Jr., who died in 2008, spinning in his grave.

State Dept. spokesman finally admits US paid ransom for hostages in Iran, making Obama a liar yet again

Quoted here:

The State Department admitted Thursday that the US would not hand over $400 million in cash to Iran until it released four American hostages — two weeks after President Obama insisted the payment was not a “ransom.”

State Department spokesman John Kirby was asked at Thursday’s press briefing: “In basic English, you’re saying you wouldn’t give them $400 million in cash until the prisoners were released, correct?”

“That’s correct,” Kirby replied.

Flashback: One week before the November 2012 election Rasmussen had Romney ahead by 2+ in FL, OH, VA and NH but Romney lost them all

And with those losses Romney did not get to 270 and finished instead with 206.

Romney lost by 166,000 votes in OH, 149,000 in VA, 74,000 in FL and 40,000 in NH . . . 429,000 votes.

Flashback here.

The Rasmussen presidential poll isn't really a poll of likely voters, either

From the Rasmussen methodology page, here:

For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are [sic] used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions. 

Well, that's not polling likely voters. That's polling people who SAY they are going to vote. Likely voters are voters you KNOW voted recently, say in 2014 or 2012.

Polling such people is very expensive, which is why they don't do it.

The polls are not reliable because you can count on only about 30% of the population to tell the truth unfailingly.

The rest of you are liars, and you have the government you deserve. You lie, and you elect liars.  

 

"Science": "Hottest July on record", but not in Seattle, Boulder, Madison, Chicago or Grand Rapids

Seattle's hottest Julys

Boulder's hottest Julys

Madison's hottest Julys

Grand Rapids' hottest Julys

Chicago's hottest Julys

July 2016 hottest on record, they say, but not in Grand Rapids, MI: Average temperature ranked 21st since 1892

Warmest average July temperatures in Grand Rapids ranked

"July 2016 Was The Hottest Month Ever Recorded"

But 70% of the top ten hottest Julys in Grand Rapids, Michigan occurred before World War II.

Michael Warren of The Weekly Standard is convinced the polls are right because they are "scientific"

The guy probably believes the Arctic is ice-free, too.

Here:

Cohen's obstinate challenge to the plain fact that scientific polls show Trump is losing indicates this head-in-the-sand mentality has permeated the culture in Trump World. Remember, it's not spin if you believe it.