Jobless claims in August fall to 253,000 weekly on average

Jobless claims have fallen in August 2014 to 253,000 weekly on average, not seasonally adjusted. The rate is equivalent to 13.1 million claims annually, a very low level. The level averaged 280,000 weekly in August 2013, equivalent to 14.6 million annually, meaning the current month is an improvement of 10% from one year ago.

Last month the average weekly level was 310,000 first time claims for unemployment, and in the first half of the year claims averaged about 326,000 weekly. So with the first two months of the second half of 2014 coming in well below that, the trend remains very positive, but it should be remembered that summer is peak full-time employment season and that many of the seasonal jobs will drop off with the start of the school year.

PIMCO's Bill Gross wakes up to the wall hit by TCMDO, but not fully

Others saw this in April 2013.

Here's Bill Gross in September 2014:

The current outstanding total [credit] approximates $58 trillion and has been expanding at an average annual rate of 2% for the past five years, and 3.5% for the most recent 12 months. Put simply, if credit needs to expand at 4.5% per year, then the private and public sectors in combination must create approximately $2.5 trillion of additional debt per year to pay for outstanding interest. They are underachieving that target in the U.S., which is the reason why GDP growth struggles at 2% real or lower and nominal GDP growth seems capped at 4.5% or lower. Credit creation is essential for economic growth in a finance-based economy such as ours. Without it, growth stagnates or withers.

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What Bill Gross doesn't seem to appreciate is the gravity of this slowdown historically to total credit expansion of just $1.14 trillion annually. TCMDO, total credit market debt outstanding, in the post-war DOUBLED every 6 to 11 years until 2007. That implies that normal credit expansion until 2007 was between 6% and 11% PER ANNUM. At 8.5%, an average level, TCMDO should grow well in excess of $4 trillion annually at these levels. 4.5% isn't going to cut it. And the actual 2% or even 3.5% is a catastrophe compared with the historical record.

By 2013, according to historical norms, TCMDO could have already reached $100 trillion if it matched the fastest pace on record under Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Instead it's stuck at $58 trillion in 2014.

The system has hit the wall. Decades of economic shrinkage, to borrow Chris Whalen's phrase, lie ahead, and we're already in the first one.

Incidentally, nonfinancial corporate debt has grown on average $567 billion annually between 2010 and 2014, accounting for about 50% of the average increase in TCMDO. And in 2013, corporations bought back something like $600 billion worth of their own stock. 

The broad US stock market presently is valued 58.5% higher than at the end of 2002

At the end of 2002, the Wilshire 5000 (x 1.2) divided by the nominal GDP for the year stood at 0.912. As of June 30, 2014, the same calculation yields 1.446.

You have been warned!

Total Market Capitalization To Nominal GDP Ratios, Selected Years

I have used the Wilshire 5000 level at year end multiplied by 1.2 as a proxy for total stock market capitalization (except where noted by the month), and the latest summer revisions for calendar nominal GDP, in summer 2014 for the period back to 1999, and in summer 2013 for the period back to 1971.

A ratio close to 1.0 indicates the market is fairly valued relative to GDP. A ratio less than 1.0 indicates the stock market is "on sale" to some extent (for example, a ratio of 0.48 indicates the market is trading at a 52% discount). A ratio of more than 1.0 indicates the stock market is expensive and may be considered overvalued for investment purposes (for example, a ratio of 1.72 indicates the stock market is as much as 72% too expensive).

1971   .975

1981   .480

1987   .595

1990   .622

1994   .745

1997 1.296

1999 1.715
2000 1.420
2001 1.209

2002   .912

2003 1.125
2004 1.170
2005 1.147

2006 1.234

2007 1.228

2008   .740

March 2009   .676

2009   .962

2010 1.071

2011 1.019

2012 1.113

2013 1.410

March 2014 1.407

June 2014    1.446

Historically considered, valuation of the stock market by the end of 2008 made then a much better investing opportunity than was late 2002 and early 2003, almost 20% better. And valuations have remained reasonable throughout 2010-2012 and only became expensive in 2013. The four year period beginning in late 2008 has been an excellent opportunity for those with cash to invest.

I maintain that a primary driver of conditions in 2013 was the midnight hour 2012/2013 resolution of tax uncertainty, in the form of making the Bush tax cuts and alternative minimum tax rates permanent, ending the tinkering with Social Security, and reaching a compromise on capital gains tax rates.

All hail John Boehner.

Brad DeLong believes we are in a depression

And calls it the true name for what we are experiencing, here.

Market capitalization to GDP for 1999, before the August 2000 high and subsequent crash

The Wilshire 5000 level at the end of December 1999 was 13,812.7. Multiplied times 1.2 yields a total market capitalization of $16.57524 trillion.

Nominal GDP for 1999 was $9.6606 trillion according to the latest figures from the BEA.

The former divided by the latter yields 1.72.

The ratio through March 2014 is 1.41.

The ratio through June 2014 is 1.45.

Rush Limbaugh says Rutgers survey which mentions Obama 5 times never mentions Obama while blaming Bush!

Ah . . .  no.

The survey never mentions Bush, mentions Obama 5 times, and two of those times are in questions from the actual survey. See for yourself here.

Rush Limbaugh transcript here . . . not just reliably getting it wrong, but lying about it. No wonder people are pessimistic about the future.

Dim bulb Rush Limbaugh doesn't know what an L.E.D. is

Transcript here.

Does anyone really know what is the level of stock buybacks?

The LA Times reported yesterday here that the level was $598 billion in 2013.

But The Washington Post reported last December here that is was $754 billion, not counting a big buyback announced by Boeing.

How do they know?

2Q2014 GDP, second estimate, at 4.2% vs. 4.0% in advance estimate and -2.1% in 1Q2014

If today's report of GDP holds up in the final estimate of 2Q2014 GDP about a month from now, Obama will have racked up just three quarters in his entire presidency with prints in the fours:

4Q2011  4.6%

3Q2013  4.5%

2Q2014  4.2%.

Here's Obama's full record incorporating the latest annual revisions from bea.gov at the end of July and the annual revisions from the summer of 2013:

2009: -5.4, -0.4,  1.3,  3.9

2010:  1.6,   3.9,  2.8,  2.5

2011: -1.5,   2.9,  0.8,  4.6

2012:  2.3,   1.6,  2.5,  0.1

2013:  2.7,   1.8,  4.5,  3.5

2014: -2.1,   4.2.

Average report after 22 quarters: 1.7%.

Pathetic!

Congressional Budget Office quietly predicts 1.5% real 2014 GDP one day before BEA.gov announcement

Is 2Q2014 GDP of 4% just a memory?

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (!) had the story here:

"The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday forecast that the U.S. economy will grow by just 1.5 per cent in 2014, undermined by a poor performance during the first three months of the year."

Why S&P500 2000.02 isn't the all time high

Because adjusted for inflation the August 2000 high was 2048.10, so we remain 48.08 points away from the all time high, or another 2.3%.

S&P500 makes historic close above 2000 yesterday

The housing riot: Average time in mortgage delinquency is 2.7 years nationwide, 4 years in New York State

Lawlessness and mayhem isn't just for po folk in Ferguson, Missouri, where law enforcement was overwhelmed by the bad actors doing millions of dollars in damage on the streets. Same goes for freeloaders in judicial mortgage states like New York where the authorities do not have the capacity to deal with the widespread problem of non-payment.

From Michael Sincere, here:

Millions of homeowners are already seriously delinquent. “The average length of time that houses remain delinquent nationwide is 995 days,” [Keith] Jurow says. “The worst culprit is New York State. The average delinquency period there is four years.” Many homeowners are aware that banks are not in a rush to file foreclosures, so they stay in their houses mortgage-free. “The banks are not initiating foreclosure proceedings because once the servicer forecloses, the lender takes a hit on earnings,” Jurow says. “They also have to manage the property, and most banks don’t want to do that.”

Postmodernism at The Atlantic, continued, where the seven-day week is completely man-made

What's completely man-made is this account of the week, "Where the Five-Day Workweek Came From", in which long observation of four lunar phases of 7.4 days in length over millennia means nothing to an architect, who is, fittingly, cited as an authority, as in architects making stuff up.

The author, one Philip Sopher, an economics graduate from Princeton who should know his dates better, is completely ignorant of the Julian calendar reform of the Roman market day cycle of eight days to the more natural seven, which together with its other changes in 46 BC helped remove ever after in the West, not add, deliberate human meddling with the calendar, a common problem at the time of Caesar, here:

“Seven days,” wrote Witold Rybczynski in the August 1991 issue of The Atlantic, “is not natural because no natural phenomenon occurs every seven days.” The year marks one revolution of the Earth around the sun. Months, supposedly, mark the time between full moons.  The seven-day week, however, is completely man-made.

If it’s man-made, can’t man unmake it? For all the talk of how freeing it’d be to shave a day or two off the five-day workweek, little attention has been paid to where the weekly calendar came from. Understanding the sometimes arbitrary origins of the modern workweek might inform the movement to shorten it.

... At the very latest, the seven-day week was firmly entrenched in the Western calendar about 250 years before Christ was born.

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Little attention, indeed.

Federal Reserve banks rob the people a minimum $400 billion annually through ZIRP, so far have paid just $125 billion in fines for financial crisis crimes

Bank of America is a chief offender appearing in the lists. The latest fine against it, among others, is detailed here:

"The Bank of America deal announced Thursday, the government’s largest-ever settlement with a single company, means the nation’s second-biggest bank will shell out $16.65 billion over allegations that it knowingly sold toxic mortgages to investors. ... The sum surpasses Bank of America’s entire profits last year and is significantly higher than the $13 billion it offered during negotiations in July."

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The story doesn't mention the nearly $90 billion paid out by the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund for the failed banks which have numbered over 500 since 2007, the funds for which are supplied by insurance premiums extorted from the honest banks. But it is the depositors who end up paying for that cost of doing business in the end. Nor does it ruminate on the effects of the Federal Reserve's Zero Interest Rate Policy, which allows those first in line for money to get it rock bottom cheap and speculate with it. The financial sector now rivals the household sector in stock ownership. Savers meanwhile get the crumbs which fall from their masters' table. Ten years prior to 2007 the country was finally beginning to recover from a decade long Savings and Loan crisis which witnessed over a thousand institutions fail, costing the taxpayers directly about $130 billion. No sooner was that over in 1995 when the wizards of smart conspired to abolish the Glass-Steagall banking regime in 1999, precipitating the recent panic less than a decade later. And, of course, the Great Depression after 1929 followed closely on the heels of the establishment of the Federal Reserve itself in 1913, signed into law by one Woodrow Wilson, Ph.D., Johns Hopkins University. Over 700 banks failed in 1930, and 9,000 over the ensuing decade. The professionals have a long history of failure. The prudent avoid them.

S&P500 posts its 28th record close in 2014 at 1992

That's one new record high every 1.18 weeks to date, down from just slightly more than one per week in 2013, or one new high every 1.02 weeks.

Sentier Research: Real Median Annual Household Income Down 3.1% From 2009, 4.8% From 2007, 5.9% From 2000

The metric has recovered between 2011 and 2014 by 3.8%, so things could be a lot worse. But the report means incomes remain in a depression now fourteen years long and counting.

Read the full report here.

Missouri governor calls in the National Guard to protect . . . the police

The New York Times reports here in "National Guard Troops Fail to Quell Unrest in Ferguson":

"Early Monday, after a new spate of unrest, Gov. Jay Nixon said he was bringing in the National Guard. Hours later, he said that he was lifting the curfew and that the Guard would have only a limited role, protecting the police command post. ... at the police command post, National Guard members in Army fatigues, some with military police patches on their uniforms, stood ready but never entered the area where protesters were marching. State and local law enforcement authorities oversaw operations there."

The market crash is not coming with signs to be observed

John Hussman, here:

"Compressed risk premiums normalize in spikes.

"Those spikes will make it quite difficult to exit in the nice, orderly manner that speculators seem to imagine will be possible. Nor are readily observable warnings (beyond those we already observe) likely to provide a clear exit signal. Galbraith reminds us that the 1929 market crash did not have observable catalysts. Rather, his description is very much in line with the view that the market crashed first, and the underlying economic strains emerged later: 'the crash did not come – as some have suggested – because the market suddenly became aware that a serious depression was in the offing. A depression, serious or otherwise, could not be foreseen when the market fell.'"