Perpetual Fascism: Government Still Owns 458 Companies, Is Owed $133 Billion Under TARP

Brought to you by the friendly folks at the two main political parties.

As reported by the AP this week:

A government watchdog says U.S. taxpayers are still owed $132.9 billion that companies haven't repaid from the financial bailout, and some of that will never be recovered.

The bailout launched at the height of the financial crisis in September 2008 will continue to exist for years, says a report issued Thursday by Christy Romero, the acting special inspector general for the $700 billion bailout. Some bailout programs, such as the effort to help homeowners avoid foreclosure by reducing mortgage payments, will last as late as 2017, costing the government an additional $51 billion or so.

Read it all here.

2.5 Million Homes Lost to Foreclosure. How About At Least Another 4.5 Million?

Laurie Goodman is back in the news on housing, here:

All told, Goodman warns that more than 10 million of the nation's 55 million mortgage holders could default by 2018. ...
To avoid the "moral hazard" of rewarding foolish borrowers, Goodman recommends that lenders swap immediate principal reductions for shares of any gains on the mortgaged house when it is sold.

In 2010 she was talking 11-12 million defaults, so the new, only slightly lower, estimate shows that in the intervening two years she has corrected her predictive range by at most 16 percent.

The Next Bailout: Think Fed Leverage at 53:1 is Bad? Try the FHA at 417:1.

So says Fortune (link), or else it's curtains for Ginnie Mae:

The second catalyst [for government support of housing to decline] is the FHA, which looks increasingly like it will need a bailout. In its annual report to Congress, released a few weeks ago, the FHA reported estimated economic net worth of $2.6 billion backing $1.078 trillion insurance in force, for a capital ratio of just 0.24% (or 417x leverage). One year ago, the capital ratio was 0.50%, and in 2007 it was 6.4%.  The FHA's annual report claims it's adequately capitalized, but this conclusion relies on home prices not falling at all from here. ...

The government will have to pony up to recapitalize the FHA. FHA mortgages are fed into Ginnie Mae MBS, and Ginnie Mae MBS are explicitly backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. So if the FHA runs out of funds, the government will have little choice but to step up. To do otherwise would be a default – not out of the question these days, but not very likely either.

FHA and VA loans fill void left by private lending

Dr. Housing Bubble weighs in with the big picture (link):

The trend for lower home prices has been baked in for nearly a year now. Last summer we had a mini burst of buyers thanks to artificial tax credits and low interest rates. I still view the current market as being designed for the nothing down leverage happy mentality that is present in our society. You have a large number of buyers purchasing homes with 3.5 percent down FHA mortgages and the default rates are soaring in this category. ...



Over half a decade ago I knew the bigger issue would be the cognitive dissonance that would linger from a post-bubble world. Many now realize that what occurred in the housing market was a once in a lifetime spending binge induced by debt. Yet some still think those days are only around the corner. The global debt crisis will not allow that. This is why most of the mortgage market is now dominated by the government. How many foreign governments or investors are going to trust Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley when they drop by their door steps with new mortgage backed securities? I think some have learned their lessons well and the data reflects this.


The housing market was bound to have a day of reckoning and it looks like it is slowly unraveling. It was simply impossible to have a shadow inventory growing with banks just ignoring the reality. We are now going into year five of the housing bubble bursting. You have millions of those in foreclosure who have not made a payment in one to even two years.


Ultimately the burden falls largely on the middle class. The Federal Reserve has a primary mission to protect banks. That is their bottom line. They are not looking out for the best interest of homeowners or working Americans. For the cost of the bailouts and shadow loans, they could have paid off close to every mortgage in the country. Yet even principal reductions were never on the radar because to do that, it would be to admit a financially broken system. Instead they opted to give out $7.7 trillion in backdoor loans to banks and forced the public to deal with “free market” solutions. An interesting situation no doubt but the problems we are now facing are based on this two-tiered system.



Confounded Interest points out (link) just how high the FHA default rates are:

As of October 2011 17.02% of FHA loans were at some stage of delinquency. The serious delinquency rate is 9.05%.


Clearly another government sponsored enterprise is repeating the mistakes of the past as we speak, having destroyed its capital base with non-performing loans swelling its balance sheet. FHA obviously should require down payments which are much higher than 3.5 percent in order to strengthen its bottom line, but it's probably too late to avoid bailing it out for the mistakes it has already made.

California Democrat Calls Obama's Mortgage Crisis Responses Abysmal Failures

At TheHill.com, here:

"The administration has been AWOL on this issue," charged Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-Calif.), "and the American people are suffering because of the mismanagement."

"In my entire political career, I've never seen anything this irresponsible," he added. ...

"I couldn't wait to get Obama in office because I was sure a Democrat would do a better job," Cardoza said, referring to the foreclosure-relief efforts under the Bush administration. "And, frankly, nothing's happened. The programs that were put in place were abysmal failures."

All is Not Well on Martha's Vineyard: Pres. Obama's Vacation Spot

The Boston Globe has the story here:

At the core of islanders’ misgivings is the shaky local economy. ...

Empty storefronts dot main streets in Vineyard Haven, Edgartown, and elsewhere. ...

[N]early 700 of the roughly 16,500 year-round Vineyard residents are unemployed, state labor statistics show. In January, the jobless rate was 13.2 percent. ...

Islanders have lost homes to foreclosure at a rate of two per month since 2008, a rate not showing any signs of abating, according to The Warren Group, a company that tracks real estate transactions.

Net Return On Massive Secret Loans To Biggest Banks By Federal Reserve Was Barely 1 Percent During Subprime Meltdown Between 2007 and 2009

Bloomberg has the story here.

This while home buyers in the US in 2007 with excellent credit were paying 6 percent or more for 30 year fixed rate mortgages.

Here's the propaganda line from the article:

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages.

But the depression wasn't averted, no matter how much lipstick Bloomberg tries to put on this pig:

While the 18-month U.S. recession that ended in June 2009 after a 5.1 percent contraction in gross domestic product was nowhere near the four-year, 27 percent decline between August 1929 and March 1933, banks and the economy remain stressed.

Instead of "banks and the economy remain stressed," how about, "it was a depression nevertheless"? We now know thanks to revised GDP numbers released by the government in its annual revision in July that GDP went slightly negative for the first time in 2008, followed by a substantial negative GDP report for 2009. Two back to back years of negative GDP are a depression, just as surely as two back to back quarters of negative GDP are a recession. Clearly not the Great Depression, but a depression nonetheless.

Yet we still can't bring ourselves to say it.

As usual, the banks are ground zero for depression, whether it's under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 which was meant to prevent booms and busts, or not:

Data gleaned from 29,346 pages of documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and from other Fed databases of more than 21,000 transactions make clear for the first time how deeply the world’s largest banks depended on the U.S. central bank to stave off cash shortfalls. Even as the firms asserted in news releases or earnings calls that they had ample cash, they drew Fed funding in secret, avoiding the stigma of weakness.

Why do you think there's been such a flight to cash ever since, first by the banks, then by the corporations, and now by the citizenry, always the last to know?

Nothing has changed, and nothing has been fixed. 

Debt that can be repaid might be. What cannot be repaid won't be. Not ever. And that's what depressions in real capitalist economies are for: quick, dirty and nasty little episodes of failure which reset the chess board. Except we can't seem to accept that because we're not really a capitalist society anymore, which is why this sorry tale keeps dragging on.

AP Reports Householders Converted to Renters Total 3 Million

With 3 million more expected by 2015:

Since the housing meltdown, nearly 3 million households have become renters. At least 3 million more are expected by 2015, according to census data analyzed by Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies and The Associated Press.

Read the rest of the story here, which says that the GSEs presently own 250,000 foreclosures.

Imagine 1.2 Million Mortgagors Not Making ANY Payments in Over Two Years

And about 3 million more who haven't paid anything in over a year.

The story is here.

Looks like judicial foreclosure states only, of course.

If You Don't Have the Note Today, You Don't Have No Game

Chris Whalen here shows the regrettable continuity between the problems of today and the 1930s with respect to the legal issues in judicial foreclosure and concludes with the following:

One thing you can depend upon is that there will be no fixing of what is wrong with the US real estate sector until Congress addresses once and for all the issue of delivery of a note as collateral for a mortgage backed security. Unless, and until, we fix the private mortgage securitization market, the housing sector will not stabilize and the chance of further deflation will remain a threat to economic recovery.

Florida Couple Foreclosures on Bank of America!

I kid you not!

The story is here.

Don't try this in a non-recourse state.

Barry Ritholtz Can't Even Spell Other People's Book Titles Properly

His latest demonstration of illiteracy is here (which I rather like to point out now and again since Ritholtz seems to think he's God's appointed corrector of innumeracy--what's so great about being able to count when you can't read or write, either?):

The Case Shiller chart showing home prices in the 1920s or 30s does not use actual sales data, but are [sic] hypothesized by Prof Shiller in his book Irrational Exuberence.

On the substantive issue, Ritholtz is right to stress that there are problems comparing the two eras since data are not complete for the past in the same way that they are today for many things.

I rather liked one commenter's response to this post, objecting to the obvious straw man argument among other things: 

Mark A. Sadowski Says: 

June 1st, 2011 at 10:19 am

There’s a couple of problems with this post.

1) You’re conflating the claim that residential housing has done worse with the claim that this recession is as bad as the Great Depression. These are two seperate [ah, that would be "separate"] claims and one does not imply the other.

2) The relative absence of mortgages in the Great Depression would have greatly reduced the foreclosure problem relative to our own times.

3) High end real estate in Manhattan [!] in the 1930s was not a proxy for housing nationally.

Grebler, Blank and Winnick constructed a fairly decent index of nominal housing prices nationally (Shiller uses it). It fell 30.5% from 1925 to 1933.

http://www.nber.org/books/greb56-1

In contrast the S&P/Case-Shiller index has fallen 34.0% from 2006Q2 through 2010Q4.

Moreover your claim ignores the fact that there was considerable deflation in everything during the Great Depression. Taking into account the CPI, real housing prices only fell 12.6% from 1925 through 1932. In contrast real housing prices have fallen 40.1% this time around (so far).

P.S. For comparison[']s sake on the 67% decline in housing prices in Manhatten [Manhattan] between 1929Q3 and the end of 1932, consider the city of Las Vegas today. From peak in April 2006 to present housing prices in Las Vegas have fallen 58.4%. Adjusting for CPI the decline in housing prices in Manhatten [Manhattan] in the early 1930s is 57% whereas the decline in Las Vegas today it is 62.7% (so far).

If Ritholtz is so smart, how come it's not called the Case/Ritholtz index?

Now wasn't that fun? 

The Housing Pox-Eclipse

As reported here by Stephen B. Meister, there are currently 2.25 million foreclosures, 1 million repos, 1.8 million more than 90 days delinquent, and 3.8 million legitimate listings. Add to that another 12 million underwater.

There were places like these.

Cities.

They were called cities.

They had lots of knowing.

They had skyscrapers. . .

. . .videos and they had the sonic.

Then this happened.

This Pox-Eclipse happened, and it's

finished. It isn't there anymore.

-- Savannah, Mad Max 3 Beyond Thunderdome

Banks are Overwhelmed with Real Estate Owned

More than 872,000 properties, almost double the number from before the housing catastrophe began in 2007, are owned by big banks and lenders, according to a story from The New York Times reproduced by CNBC here.

Another million foreclosures are expected this year, and millions more in years to come.

It not being their stock-in-trade, they say, the banks are finding it difficult to process them all in through foreclosure, as we're all too familiar, and processing them out through sales. Something about not having adequate staffing.

Gee, where would you think they could find people ready to work those jobs?

Meanwhile, Obama is enjoying being president. That's the important thing. He's drinking beer in Ireland today, reconnecting with his roots. Isn't that nice?

Yes, There is a Hell. It's Called the Housing Market.

Stephen B. Meister for The New York Post takes us on a grand tour of The Inferno, from the first level to the last:

Sales of existing homes dropped 9.6 percent in February to their lowest level since 2002 -- 4.88 million per year. And that's the good news.

Sales of new homes have collapsed. In February, they dropped 16.9 percent to an all-time-record low -- 250,000 a year, down from 900,000 in early 2007. ...

The median price of an existing home dropped 5.2 percent to $156,100, while the median new-home price is down 13.9 percent, to $202,100. ...

The official statistics show an inventory of 3.67 million new and existing homes -- 8.6 months' worth at the present anemic sales rate. But the real inventory is likely double that . . ..

Nearly one in four borrowers -- more than 11 million households -- owes more than the house is worth. Another 2.4 million homeowners have less than 5 percent equity, putting them right on the edge. And those numbers will all soar as prices slide further. ...

All this means there's a backlog of some 10 million homes that must get sold before housing can truly recover. But fewer than 5 million homes now trade hands in a year -- and that's mostly sales of nondistressed homes, which aren't even part of the glut. So it's clear that home prices are bound to go down further and remain down for years.

Every economist knows you get more of what you subsidize. Due to all the overbuilding from years of federal housing subsidies, today a staggering 18.4 million homes are empty year-round. (That's down from 18.9 million a year ago, as lower prices have lured investors who've rented out homes bought at foreclosure.)

Given that there are 112.5 million occupied housing units (including rentals) in America, that means that there's one vacant home for every six occupied ones.

Short of bulldozing the millions of unneeded homes, it will take years of population growth and household formations to absorb the excess.

You won't like the rest, either, here.

Q4 2010 GDP 2nd Estimate = 2.8 Percent, Down from Initial 3.2 Percent

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, here.

Q3 2010 GDP rises to 2.6 percent from previously estimated 2.0 percent.

Overall, despite TRILLIONS in loans, bailouts and other government guarantees, all we've got to show for it is a huge steaming pile of new debt, millions still out of work, housing values in the toilet, foreclosures reaching new heights, smaller banks failing and the biggest banks sailing, giant GSEs on government life support, record numbers on food stamps, the Federal Reserve punishing savers and livers on fixed incomes with artificially low interest rates . . .

and GDP? Basically treading water, so that the losses of 2009 were recouped in 2010 and we're back to where we were in December 2008, a lovely time as I recall:  

Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in 2010 (that is, from the 2009 annual level to the 2010 annual level), in contrast to a decrease of 2.6 percent in 2009.

Was it worth it? WELL WAS IT?

Teachers Averaged $272,000 in Salary Under Obama's Stimulus Bill

Stimulus funds preserved 367,524 teacher jobs in 2009-2010, and the amount spent on saving these education-related jobs in the nation's public schools was nearly $100 billion, according to a story in The Baltimore Sun which relies on data from the US Department of Education.

That's about $272,000 for each teacher. Wow. Those must be some kind of wonderful teachers.

That also means taxpayers all across America ended up on the hook for the salaries of about 7,350 teachers per state.

Formerly these teachers were paid directly from local property tax revenues, not borrowed funds, but these revenues have been in dramatic decline due to the crash in the housing market and due to skyrocketing unemployment and home foreclosures.

It is highly unlikely that more stimulus funds are on the way, and it is highly unlikely that property tax revenues will be raised easily in this economy, so isn't it time for the teachers in Wisconsin to pack it in already and quit the illegal strike?

They should be thankful just to have a job.

A Housing Lotto?

Reuven Brenner for Forbes thinks a lottery might be the solution to the foreclosure and shadow inventory mess. He got the idea from Thomas Jefferson:

Shortly before Thomas Jefferson died, he tried to pay debts that amounted to $80,000 by disposing of land he owned through the use of a lottery, a well-established method at the time. He explained the rationale for such financing: "An article of property, insusceptible of division at all, or not without great diminution of its worth, is sometimes of so large value that no purchaser can be found ... The lottery is here a salutary instrument for disposing of it, where men run small risks for a chance of obtaining a high prize."

Go here to read how Brenner thinks it could be made to work.

Nine Years of Housing Inventory Owned by Banks

Which is why Chris Whalen calls the banks unwilling REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts). This is a national catastrophe which threatens our very way of life. No one can sell. No one can move.

As reported here by the Wall Street Journal on October 30th:

As of September, [banks] owned nearly 994,000 foreclosed homes, up 21% from a year earlier. The shadow inventory stood at 5.2 million homes, down 7% from a year earlier. Grand total: 107 months of inventory.

And Obama's off on another junket at taxpayer expense, costing an estimated $200 million PER DAY according to widely circulated reports.

Why are Americans putting up with this?

Foreclosure and Securitization Fraud: Conjuring Collateral Documents From Thin Air

Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism writing for the New York Times zeroes in on the fraud which lies at the heart of the mortgage securitization and foreclosure crisis:

Consider a company called Lender Processing Services, which acts as a middleman for mortgage servicers and says it oversees more than half the foreclosures in the United States. To assist foreclosure law firms in its network, a subsidiary of the company offered a menu of services it provided for a fee.

The list showed prices for “creating” — that is, conjuring from thin air — various documents that the trust owning the loan should already have on hand. The firm even offered to create a “collateral file,” which contained all the documents needed to establish ownership of a particular real estate loan. Equipped with a collateral file, you could likely persuade a court that you were entitled to foreclose on a house even if you had never owned the loan.

That there was even a market for such fabricated documents among the law firms involved in foreclosures shows just how hard it is going to be to fix the problems caused by the lapses of the mortgage boom. No one would resort to such dubious behavior if there were an easier remedy.

Read the rest of her excellently presented discussion here.

A Libertarian Defends Local Bankers

An analyst of the banks and an increasingly visible commentator on the foreclosure mess, R. Christopher Whalen puts in a good word for local bankers on his blog at Reuters.com:

The bad guys in the housing bust are not the banks who must foreclose on homes, but the politicians in both political parties who used reckless housing policies to further their personal interests. This is a bipartisan national scandal. Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Phil Graham, Alan Greenspan and their contemporaries are the authors of our collective misery, not the local banker who must clean up the mess created by government intervention in the housing market.

Read the rest here.