So says John Reid, here:
'Yet if the Trump’s enduring success has taught us anything [it] is that Republican voters are not libertarian ideologues. He recognizes that politics is about “Who, whom?”'
Showing posts with label Donald Trump 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Donald Trump 2015. Show all posts
Monday, October 12, 2015
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Trump's lead in first is actually up 35% in the last USAT/Suffolk poll
When you compare Trump's performance in the last USA Today/Suffolk poll to the previous one by USA Today/Suffolk in July, he's actually up by 6 points in first place, going from 17% to 23%, or up 35%.
Since the July poll, Bush, Huckabee, Paul, Christie, Santorum, Perry and Walker (who are both out now) have all together given up 22 points to Fiorina, Carson, Kasich, Graham, Rubio and Trump, on top of 11 additional points added to those front runners from fewer undecideds in September.
In the averages in yellow, note that Trump has improved his overall lead in first by 1.2 points, or almost 21%.
In the USA Today poll, Trump's lead in first has gone from +3 to +10, up 233%.
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
The Tax Foundation says Trump tax plan will blow up the deficit, reducing revenues to 12% of GDP
From Alan Cole, here:
"Looking at these rates, collectively, note that Mr. Trump is frequently cutting rates in half, and sometimes cutting them by even more than that. Taken together, these rate reductions are enough—by my estimates—to reduce tax collections from about 18 percent of GDP to about 12 percent. Under rates as low as these, economic growth—moderate or otherwise—cannot restore federal revenues to current-law levels.
"Tax cuts can do a great deal of good; each of the provisions I outlined above could help a lot of people lead better lives. However, the reductions in federal revenue need to be acknowledged, and likely mitigated through substantial cuts in spending, in order to make this plan feasible."
Larry Kudlow really likes the Donald Trump 15% corporate tax plan, saying he never thought he'd see it
Here:
'Kudlow, who hosts his own syndicated radio show, has long championed a 15 percent corporate tax rate, but "I never thought I'd see a candidate do it. "It'll give us a gigantic advantage. Bring capital and businesses to the U.S., make us the most hospitable place to invest — and that's what Donald Trump has done."'
Zogby poll on September 20th had Trump out front with 33%
Reported here at Forbes:
Trump 33%
Carson 13%
Bush 9%
Fiorina 7%
Cruz 5%
Rubio 4%
Paul 4%
Kasich 4%
Christie 3%
Walker 2%
Huckabee 2%
Ipsos/Reuters poll of core political approval as of September 24th has Trump in the lead with 30%
Seen here:
"After the Wednesday Republican debate, Donald Trump continues to hold the support of 30% of Republicans in our tracking poll, down 5% from last week. Ben Carson remains in 2nd at 18% among Republicans. Jeb Bush is in 3rd with 10%. Carly Fiorina has made significant gains, currently at 8% among Republicans, up from 2% before the debate."
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Monday, September 28, 2015
Trump's tax plan released to the public today is ambitious and pro-growth
The Trump tax plan can be reviewed here.
Notable features include exemption from federal income taxation entirely for up to about 73 million households who make up to either $25,000 individually or $50,000 jointly.
This is in the spirit of the original income tax law, which for its first few years, that is until the demands of World War I and the bureaucratic state came into play, taxed the incomes of no one except the very wealthiest.
It is unclear whether the plan retains the child tax credit or the earned income tax credit, two programs which effectively transfer welfare to lower income families who pay no income tax anyway and who receive through these two vehicles what is effectively a rebate of Social Security taxes they pay as employees, eliminating its regressivity.
For the rest there are just three tax brackets of 10%, 20% and 25%, kicking in at joint incomes up to $100K, up to $300K and beyond $300K. Presumably, but not stated, short term capital gains are taxed at these ordinary rates. Long term capital gains tax rates are 0% up to $100K of joint income, then 15% and 20% up to $300K and beyond $300K of joint income.
Business taxes are slashed to 15% no matter the size, which is YUGE for American competitiveness.
The AMT is eliminated entirely, along with the marriage penalty and . . . the death tax. It's going to be unbelievable!
Deductions are capped for the richest Americans, but deductions for charity and mortgage interest are retained.
We'll see what the dynamic scorers will have to say about it for revenues, as time goes by.
Sunday, September 27, 2015
NBC/WSJ poll pulls Trump back to earth, still first in Real Clear Politics poll average with 23.4%, 6.4 ahead of Carson
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| Trump in the middle of summer was +4 in the NBC/WSJ poll |
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| Trump starts autumn at +1 in the NBC/WSJ poll |
Trump's poll average hasn't changed much in the last eight weeks, indicating he's stopped persuading people to join him, while the average spread of his lead has dropped by 39% in the interim. This is because support is firming for candidates below him.
While the names have changed in second and third, the level of support has improved for the person in second by 33% and remained more or less the same for the person in third over the period. Ben Carson is the most benefited, going from fifth to second, even as Fiorina rocketed up 1060% to take third, replacing Walker who dropped out.
Similarly the persons occupying fourth and fifth have improved their levels of support on average by 42%, but their names have changed, too. Marco Rubio in fourth has improved his support by 85% over the period, but Jeb Bush is the most hurt, going from second to fifth.
Ted Cruz is notably stuck in sixth in both snapshots, with the same average of support. He's persuading no one, either, except maybe so-called values voters to shift their votes around, unaware that they are just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Trump's critics of his investment success need to get a new calculator, and some brains
This morning on the Chris Plante Show on WMAL a caller complained that Trump inherited $200 million and that anyone could have $10 billion after 30 years, too, just by investing in a CD.
Chris Plante said "that's some CD"!
This meme is now ubiquitous in the media critical of Trump, and while not as obviously silly as this morning's example the critics nevertheless display remarkable investment ignorance.
Grant for a moment that Trump inherited $200 million, and keep in mind that that is the upper end of the estimates, which go as low as $40 million. Also keep in mind it's mostly real estate, not cash, not stocks, not bonds, a completely different business.
$200 million invested in the S&P 500 for 30 years from 1985 to 2015 yielded $4.2 billion, or just 42% of the net worth Trump claims to have accumulated over the period. The actual average nominal rate of return for the S&P 500 was 10.75% per annum, dividends fully reinvested. The $10 billion net worth claim, on the other hand, represents an annual net rate of return of 13.93%, again assuming the investment of $200 million, almost 30% better every year than what the S&P 500 actually yielded. But again, the S&P 500 return is not net. You still have to deduct taxes, inflation and expenses from that, which is an individual calculation and highly variable, and in New York can be quite onerous.
On the other end of the scale, the investment of $40 million becoming $10 billion is the equivalent of a net return of 20.21% per annum, 88% better than the S&P 500 nominal return every year on average.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between, but no matter how you cut it, Donald Trump capitalized on what he was given in a way which has been exceptionally more successful than what most people ever experience.
He's Yuge.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Friday, September 18, 2015
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Donald Trump again brought NFL-level ratings to Republican debate, this time 23 million to CNN, its most-watched program ever
Reported here:
"Wednesday's prime time GOP debate averaged 22.9 million viewers, making it the most-watched program in CNN's history. ... CNN's most-watched program overall was a special "Larry King Live" episode in 1993. The episode featured Al Gore and Ross Perot debating NAFTA and averaged 16.8 million viewers. ... These are NFL-level ratings -- affirming that the Donald Trump fueled Republican debate slate is one of the most popular television shows of the year."
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