Welcome to the new age of belief: credo ergo sum

I believe therefore I am . . .

a woman

an African-American

skinny and conservative!

part Cherokee

a climate expert

a success!

Trump pulls the trigger, runs for president as a Republican

[H]e said he'll be "the greatest jobs-president that God ever created" . . ..

He said he will: "repeal and replace the Big Lie, Obamacare";

"build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will have Mexico pay for that wall" ("nobody builds walls better than me");

and "find the General Patton or … General MacArthur" in the U.S. military to fight the Islamic State.

More here.

Glengariff poll in Michigan obviously skewed by opinions of Lansing elites, designed to get the results it wanted

The socially liberal results of the Glengariff poll reported here were skewed by polling "Lansing leaders" and "Michigan residents". What counts is voters, and a decent sample size of same.

From the story:

"The 600-person representative sample of state voters, Lansing leaders and Michigan residents found that participants have different views on gay rights."

Parsing the meaning of Libya email: Oh we thought you just wanted the BENGHAZI email, you want the Libya too?

Hillary better hope the State Dept. has all the same email Sidney Blumenthal has just turned over.

From the Politico story here:

'House GOP Benghazi investigators have discovered additional Libya communications between Sidney Blumenthal and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a congressional source told POLITICO — suggesting that either the State Department or the 2016 Democratic presidential contender withheld correspondence the panel had requested. ...

'At the crux of the back and fourth is whether the committee specifically asked State for all Clinton’s Libya emails or only Benghazi-related emails. State says the panel initially asked for Benghazi material and only recently expanded that request to include all correspondence on the Middle Eastern nation. But the initial requests for information from Clinton did include all Libya correspondence, according to the congressional source.'

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Obstructing justice. The Hillary gift that keeps on . . . er . . . not giving.

British newspaper and David Cameron government try to smear Edward Snowden

The Guardian reports on the story, here:

'Downing Street and the Home Office are being challenged to answer in public claims that Russia and China have broken into the secret cache of Edward Snowden files and that British agents have had to be withdrawn from live operations as a consequence.

'The reports first appeared in the Sunday Times, which quoted anonymous senior officials in No 10, the Home Office and security services. The BBC also quoted an anonymous senior government source, who said agents had to be moved because Moscow gained access to classified information that reveals how they operate. ...

'[Eric King of Privacy International] added that if Downing Street and the Home Office believed that Russia and China had gained access to the Snowden documents, then why was the government not putting this out through official channels.

'He added: “Given Snowden is facing espionage charges in the US, you would have thought the British government would have provided them with this information.”'

The Guardian destroyed the Snowden hard drives in front of British security in July 2013 after the British government threatened to shut down the newspaper, as reported here:

'New video footage has been released for the first time of the moment Guardian editors destroyed computers used to store top-secret documents leaked by the NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden.

'Under the watchful gaze of two technicians from the British government spy agency GCHQ, the journalists took angle-grinders and drills to the internal components, rendering them useless and the information on them obliterated.'

The Guardian acknowledged at the time that the Snowden files exist in other jurisdictions:

'[The Guardian's] Rusbridger told government officials that destruction of the Snowden files would not stop the flow of intelligence-related stories since the documents existed in several jurisdictions. He explained that Glenn Greenwald, the Guardian US columnist who met Snowden in Hong Kong, had leaked material in Rio de Janeiro. There were further copies in America, he said.'

So . . . who in the United States would want the twofer of smearing Snowden by outing British operatives?

The 86 Republicans who voted for TAA/the 54 who voted against TPP: Just five appear in both lists

Aderholt Barletta Barr Barton Benishek Bishop (MI) Blum Bost Boustany Brady (TX) Brooks (IN) Calvert Coffman Cole Comstock Costello (PA) Crenshaw Curbelo (FL) Davis, Rodney Dent Dold Donovan Emmer (MN) Fitzpatrick Fortenberry

Frelinghuysen Graves (MO) Grothman Guinta Guthrie Hanna Herrera Beutler Huizenga (MI) Hurt (VA) Issa Johnson (OH) Jolly Katko Kelly (PA) King (NY) Kinzinger (IL) Kline Luetkemeyer Marino McCarthy McHenry McKinley McMorris Rodgers Meehan Messer Mica Miller (MI) Moolenaar Murphy (PA) Nunes

Paulsen Pitts Reed Reichert Rigell Rogers (AL) Rogers (KY) Rokita Roskam Royce Ryan (WI) Scalise Shimkus Shuster Simpson Stefanik Stivers Thompson (PA) Thornberry Tiberi Trott Turner Upton Valadao Wagner Walberg Walden Walters, Mimi Whitfield Wilson (SC) Young (IA)

The roll call vote for the TAA is here. John Boehner notably voted "No" with Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats to defeat TAA in order to be able to say at election time that he has street-cred as a conservative. Typically the Speaker doesn't vote unless the outcome the Speaker supports is in doubt. This was obviously a throw-away vote for him.

Failing 126-302, the bill was one half of a binary bill passed by the Senate which would have provided assistance to US workers displaced by the trade agreement. Its defeat meant the whole bill including the free trade half of the bill, TPP, would not advance to the president's desk for a signature.

A symbolic vote (roll call here) for the free trade half of the bill, TPP, passed 219-211, with these 54 Republicans voting "No" (note the five in blue, who appeared in both lists and voted in this instance ostensibly for the worker and against free trade):

Aderholt Amash Brat Bridenstine Brooks (AL) Buck Burgess Clawson (FL) Collins (GA) Collins (NY) Cook Donovan Duncan (SC) Duncan (TN) Farenthold Fleming Garrett

Gibson Gohmert Gosar Griffith Harris Hunter Jenkins (WV) Jolly Jones Jordan Joyce Katko Labrador LoBiondo Lummis MacArthur Massie McKinley Meadows Mooney (WV) Mulvaney

Nugent Palmer Pearce Perry Poliquin Posey Rohrabacher Rothfus Russell Smith (NJ) Webster (FL) Westmoreland Wittman Yoho Young (AK) Zeldin

Democrats who voted for TAA and against TPP were similarly few in number, just thirteen: Bass, Carney, Clyburn, Eshoo, Foster, Heck (WA), Hoyer, Israel, Larson (CT), Perlmutter, Price (NC), Richmond, and Smith (WA).

Romney's apt description of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

"Secretary of Schlep".

Here.

Apparently WaPo doesn't read Foreign Policy.

Completed foreclosures in April 2015 reported by Corelogic still running 90% above normal

The level has not budged much from October 2014 when there were 41,000 completed foreclosures.

Seen here:

There were 40,000 completed foreclosures nationwide in April 2015, down from 50,000 in April 2014. ... 

Completed foreclosures are an indication of the total number of homes actually lost to foreclosure. Since the financial crisis began in September 2008, there have been approximately 5.7 million completed foreclosures across the country, and since homeownership rates peaked in the second quarter of 2004, there have been approximately 7.8 million homes lost to foreclosure. ...

As a basis of comparison, before the decline in the housing market in 2007, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month nationwide between 2000 and 2006.

George Will appears content with judicial tyranny, the price we pay for stymieing the legislative and executive

Here:

With the composition of the Supreme Court likely to change substantially during the next president’s tenure, conservatives must decide: Is majority rule or liberty — these are not synonyms, and the former can menace the latter — America’s fundamental purpose?

A healthy housing market would have 1-2% underwater, but we still have 15% with negative equity

Mostly in the lowest third of valuation.

From the Bloomberg story, here:

"A decade after U.S. home sales peaked, 15.4 percent of owners in the first quarter owed more on their mortgages than their properties were worth, according to a report Friday by Zillow Inc. While that’s down from a high of 31.4 percent in 2012, it’s still alarmingly above the 1 or 2 percent that marks a healthy market, said [Stan] Humphries, the chief economist at the Seattle-based real-estate data provider. Worse yet: The pace of healing is losing steam. ... While 25.5 percent of homes valued in the lowest third are underwater, just 14.1 percent of those in the middle have negative equity. For the top group, the figure is even lower -- 8.3 percent."

Underwater mortgages still number 8 million, down from 25.5 million in 2011

From the story here:

"Nearly eight million borrowers, or 15.4 percent of homeowners with a mortgage, still owe more than their homes are worth, according to Zillow. While the numbers continue to improve, about half of those borrowers owe the bank at least 20 percent more than their homes are worth."

Once conservative National Review magazine is all-in on free trade bill written by the corporate oligarchy

Here:

"Republicans should side with free trade".

Poverty thresholds for 2014

The thresholds are used for statistical purposes in the estimation of the number of people actually in poverty on a yearly basis, while the guidelines are a simplified form used to determine current eligibility for government assistance.

Poverty guidelines for 2015

I just got the call from the fraudsters posing as the IRS trying to shake-down the sheeple

The call originates from Bainbridge Island, Washington, and the number is 206-201-2799.

The voice is female, obviously a computer.

Presidents ranked by average monthly additions to total nonfarm employment in the post war, not seasonally adjusted

Clinton: 235,000

Carter: 215,000

Reagan: 166,000

JFK/LBJ: 164,000

Obama to date: 136,000 (77 months 1-1-09 to 5-1-15)

Nixon/Ford: 115,000

Truman: 111,000 (1949-1952/drops to 87,000 going back to April 1945 when FDR died)

GHW Bush: 49,000

Eisenhower: 34,500

GW Bush: 13,500

John Crudele isn't running for president

But he has some good ideas and some not so good ideas, just like those who are:

"When there are plenty of jobs, immigrants are no longer as unwelcome."

"[A]ll you have to do is change the rules regarding how people can use their trillions in retirement savings, and you’ll give a big boost to the economy that neither spendthrift politicians nor the Federal Reserve can accomplish now."

Read the rest, here.

Doug Short makes our point: Part-time surged because of the recession, not because of ObamaCare

Here:

"With regard to Obamacare and part-time employment, the surge in part-time employment was triggered by the recession, not by the Affordable Care Act, as the next chart clearly illustrates."

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After studying the issue since 2010 we first began to express doubts about the meme that ObamaCare part-timed the country in July of 2013, here.

In August 2013 here we realized a part-timing trend, to be real, would have to show up in the hours data and wasn't.

By September 2013 here we were calling the meme a myth, and here we identified the part-time statistics as incapable of capturing such a trend due to the high bar set by the government definition of part-time as less than 35 hours worked.

In October 2013 here we blamed the part-time explosion on the recession.

In February 2014 we noted here that The Atlantic had finally caught on.

Mish started to catch on in September 2014, here.

Now Doug Short joins the party.

Hooray.

I still want my Pulitzer.

Reason dot com caves to the tyranny's censors

Libertarianism doesn't really believe in what it says it believes in, and can't save you from what's coming. They fold like a house of cards.

Seen here:

"Wielding subpoenas demanding information on anonymous commenters, the government is harassing a respected journalism site that dissents from its policies. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York claims these comments could constitute violent threats, even though they’re clearly hyperbolic political rhetoric. ... Reason has since removed the offending comments."

Newspeak from the Orwellian president: Ending ObamaCare would punish millions with higher costs of care

Oldspeak from the true born sons of liberty: ObamaCare has already punished millions with higher costs of care, when they can find it.

Here.