Maybe John Kasich knows.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
National Review contributor tries to make the case that Trump 2016 would have beaten Obama 2012
The author repeatedly mentions that he knows he's comparing apples to oranges but never adjusts his figures for population growth over the period.
As of this morning, Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.9 million votes, but the country has grown by 9 million since 2012.
The Trump performance figure in 2016 presupposes having so much more to work with from the increased population growth but still comes up short of Romney who had so much less to work with because of a smaller population.
Trump toyed with the idea of competing in 2012 but wisely left Romney to do that and fail, knowing instinctively that the shiny, happy and clean novelty incumbent was going to be very hard to beat.
Obama was beatable in 2012, had fewer than 500,000 votes in four states east of the Mississippi gone a different way, but Romney possessed insufficient charisma compared to Obama, too few boots on the ground to make up for that, and the formidable problem of Obama's incumbency.
And on top of all that, Romney was a lousy candidate. His wife had to reassure us that "Mitt doesn't change positions".
As with all fortunes from Chinese cookies, always add "in bed" for maximum amusement.
Polling in Wisconsin was the poster boy for polling failure in 2016
From the story here:
There were no surveys released this year from Wisconsin that showed Trump with a lead.
Clinton held a 6.5 point lead in the Badger State heading into Election Day, and the state was not even discussed as on par with Michigan or Pennsylvania as a potential blue state pick-up for Trump.
Trump’s victory in Wisconsin — a state that has not gone for the GOP nominee since 1984 — helped him seal the deal.
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.
The revulsion election, Obama vs. Hillary, shows 10.25 million missing Democrat voters, and Trump underperforming both Romney and McCain
Obama garnered 69.499 million votes in 2008, so far in 2016 Hillary has just 59.245 million.
Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.912 million votes, 59.022 million to 60.934 million, and also McCain, who collected 59.950 million votes in 2008, by just shy of 1 million votes.
Expect changes to these spreads as the 2016 numbers finalize.
The revulsion election update: turnout down 3.6% from 2012
So far 124.6 million have voted in 2016, down 4.6 million from 2012 when 129.2 million voted.
Expect revisions in this space in coming days.
That useless rag USA Today says turnout was up 4.7%, missing the revulsion election
"Voter turnout up 4.7% around the country", says that useless rag USA Away.
The data in the upper Midwest says otherwise.
In Michigan, turnout was 4.7 million, a little lower than in 2012 when 4.8 million showed up. In 2008 5 million did.
In Wisconsin, turnout was 2.9 million vs. 3.1 million in 2012 and 3 million in 2008.
In Pennsylvania 6 million turned out yesterday, the same as in 2008, up slightly from 2012's 5.8 million.
In Ohio there's been a steady decline since 2008 when 5.7 million turned out. In 2012 it fell to 5.6 million and just 5.3 million in Election 2016.
When the final numbers come in, I'll bet we'll see this phenomenon of suppressed turnout in other places as well. And generally speaking, suppressed turnout favors Republicans because Republicans are often more energized, more scrupulous and more dutiful, as was the case yesterday.
What we had here was a revulsion election. People stayed home because they couldn't vote for either candidate. And because the voters found Hillary more intolerable than The Donald, Mr. Trump is our new president. The smoke generated by the ugliness of the battle on the field obscured the fact of troops staying behind in camp.
In the end America chose the rake over the robber, which was the right choice.
But don't confuse it with a sea change.
Polling on the morning of Election 2016 in the toss-ups vs. the outcome
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Florida: Trump wins by 1.4, vs. 0.2 predicted
Maine CD2: Trump wins by 9.8 with 90% counted vs. 0.5 predicted
New Hampshire: Clinton wins by 0.6 vs. 0.3 with 97% counted (!)
Nevada: Clinton wins by 2.4 vs. Trump predicted by 0.8
North Carolina: Trump wins by 3.8 vs. 1.0 predicted
Pennsylvania: Trump wins by 1.1 vs. Clinton predicted by 1.9
Colorado: Clinton wins by 2.2 with 88% counted vs. 2.9 predicted
Iowa: Trump wins by 9.4 with 99% counted vs. 3.0 predicted
Michigan: Trump winning by 0.3 vs. Clinton predicted by 3.4
Ohio: Trump wins by 8.6 vs. 3.5 predicted
Arizona: Trump wins by 4.0 with 98% counted vs. 4.0 predicted (!)
Maine: Clinton wins by 3.0 with 91% counted vs. 4.5 predicted
Georgia: Trump wins by 5.7 vs. 4.8 predicted
Virginia: Clinton wins by 4.7 with 99% counted vs. 5.0 predicted
New Mexico: Clinton wins by 8.3 vs. 5.0 predicted
Wisconsin: Trump wins by 1.0 vs. Clinton predicted by 6.5 (arguably the biggest upset of the evening)
The numbskulls on Fox are still debating whether Trump can claim victory on stage
Trump shocked by taking Wisconsin in addition to Florida and Ohio, then Pennsylvania put him over the top, and Michigan and Arizona will put the nails in Clinton's coffin.
Over an hour ago the New York Times projected Trump to win with 305.
All this talk at Fox is just jibber jabber.
Thanks to Mitch McConnell the Scalia seat will be filled by Donald Trump
Jonathan Turley is saying right now that Trump is going to make almost unprecedented changes to the make-up of the Supreme Court.
Asian stocks plunge on Trump victory
The Nikkei 225 is down over 5% at this hour. The Hang Seng is down over 3%. Smaller losses elsewhere in Asia.
Trump is coming for you, Asia.
Hillary won't appear tonight to concede, Podesta says she's not done yet
Hillary was done a half hour ago.
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Bob Dole votes for Trump, George Bush doesn't vote at all
That, my friends, is the difference between the greatest generation, and the generation to which it gave birth.
Last night Mark Levin almost sounded like the anti-immigration Pat Buchanan he has so often derided
Tonight he's worried the conservative panhandle of Florida isn't turning out for Trump. The guy has spent most of 2016 railing against Donald Trump. What the hell does he expect?
The fact of the matter is Donald Trump doesn't have a ground game, and the Republican Party hates the guy and isn't working for him in the absence of that. It could, but it isn't.
Meanwhile the vicious infighting among Republicans which has continued since Trump was a fait accompli has simply demoralized the rank and file, the base of the party.
October 2016 climate summary for Grand Rapids, Michigan: 17th warmest on record and 8th wettest
October 2016 climate summary for Grand Rapids, Michigan
Average temperature was 54.7 degrees F. Normal is 51.3. The month ranked 17th warmest October since 1892.
The YTD average temperature was 54.2. The normal YTD average temperature is 51.1. The YTD average temperature in the hottest full year on record in 2012 was 55.8.
The lowest temperature in October was 33. The normal lowest temperature is 28. The highest temperature in October was 79, which is also the normal highest.
October 2016 was the 8th wettest on record with 6.15 inches of precipitation. Normal is 2.92 inches. YTD precipitation is 40.09 inches, normal 29.23.
There were 10 Cooling Degree Days in October. Normal is 8. YTD there were 936 CDD, the 15th warmest on record so far. Normal CDD is 694.
Heating Degree Days totaled 44 in September and 324 in October, for a total of 368 for the season so far. Normal HDD seasonally is as follows: July, 6, August, 14, September, 132 and October, 440 for a seasonal normal to date of 592.
Actual lower HDD were indicative of the warmer conditions prevailing after the end of the El Nino this summer. The Very Strong El Nino of 2015-16, averaging 1.43 on the index and 15 months long, was longer but weaker than the 1997-98 episode, which averaged 1.56 on the index and was 13 months long. The 1982-83 VSE averaged 1.3 on the index and was 15 months long.
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