Researchers doubted US intelligence conclusions about 2013 "Syrian" gas attack, say rebels could have done it

McClatchy reported here in early 2014:

“I honestly have no idea what happened,” Postol said. “My view when I started this process was that it couldn’t be anything but the Syrian government behind the attack. But now I’m not sure of anything. The administration narrative was not even close to reality. Our intelligence cannot possibly be correct.”

Lloyd, who has spent the past half-year studying the weapons and capabilities in the Syrian conflict, disputed the assumption that the rebels are less capable of making rockets than the Syrian military.

“The Syrian rebels most definitely have the ability to make these weapons,” he said. “I think they might have more ability than the Syrian government.”

Both said they were not making a case that the rebels were behind the attack, just that a case for military action was made without even a basic understanding of what might have happened.

Peggy Noonan wins the Pulitzer Prize for commentary

Reported here.

Hey Trump, where's the Big Mac for Xi Jinping?

Here's Trump with O'Reilly in 2015 saying he wouldn't throw a dinner for China's leaders but give them McDonald's hamburgers instead.

The false question remains "Why did Trump win?"

Two examples from today.

Liz Peek of FOX reassured Steve Gruber this morning on his radio program in Michigan that Trump won in 2016 primarily because the voters were most concerned to ensure we had a Supreme Court seat filled by a Scalia clone.

And then Josh Brown assures his readers in the line up at Real Clear Markets that the most important reason was class warfare: a tax cut for the middle class and a big tax increase on rich speculators.

It's been five months since the election and we still can't agree about the political state of the country. Hint: libertarians don't agree about very much.

One could go on. Ann Coulter would tell you it was the promise of The Wall and an end to indiscriminate invasion by illegal aliens. Independent small business owners and self-employed people would tell you it was the promise of repeal of Obamacare. Veterans . . . veterans' affairs. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

These various opinions tell us more about the values of the individual coalitions Trump cobbled together to win, not why he won.

Meanwhile the narrow character of Trump's victory in key states, the result of former Democrat voters boycotting Hillary by the millions, goes underestimated by the winners . . . and the losers.

That's fairly typical, even for otherwise prudent presidents.

George Herbert Walker Bush thought victory in Kuwait made him golden, promptly raised taxes after we read his lips, and was shown the door.

The same will happen to Trump if he doesn't deliver on his program.

And because his program is a Duodetrigintapus, the question is really "How many of my twenty-eight legs can I get away with chopping off and still have enough left to strangle my opponent with in 2020"?

He's already cut off three. Repeal of Obamacare has failed. DACA has not been reversed (what, did they run out of pens in the White House?), and suddenly we have to burn $100 million worth of cruise missiles because someone used a politically incorrect weapon.

What's next, an assault weapon ban?

There's still plenty of time for Trump to prove that he isn't some suicidal sea monster.

But at the rate he's going he'll be a legless jellyfish by Christmas.

Hey McMaster, let the Syrians solve their civil war, it's THEIR civil war, not ours

You say organic, Drudge says oragnic, let's call the whole thing off

George Will reminds us that the Great War, like the Great Depression, wasn't so great

Because war is essentially uniformitarian, hence the uniforms.

Here in The Washington Post.

Bomb the airfields? Yes Ma'am . . . Sir . . . er

Trump's Council of Economic Advisors to be headed by Kevin Hassett, a pro-immigration, free-trading globalist

FTAlphaville (registration required) summarizes all his problems here, with links.

The libertarians are thrilled.

Looks like Donald Trump is proving to be the Manchurian Candidate Hassett thought Obama was.

Ann Coulter promoted Michael Savage's show on her Twitter feed today

Because he was ranting against Trump's attack on Syria.

I was listening anyway. It was a good presentation of our side of the story vs. Trump.

Good on her. Good on him.

Utterly ridiculous story speculates Pompeii victims were gay

Would you embrace your male friend on the ground as you were both gasping for air while suddenly being overcome and buried by a pyroclastic flow? In your house? In a bar? 

Just ask the survivors of the Twin Towers what men and women did for each other in those dire circumstances.

This story is pure clickbait.

Numbskull Hannity calls Syria strike "successful"

But Syrian jets are still using the runways.

One-two punch: GDP forecast for 1Q2017 tanks to 0.6% today after crappy jobs and vehicle sales numbers

According to the Atlanta Fed here.

The Obama economy is still in big trouble under Trump.

Congress is off for two weeks. Maybe things will improve a little.

Trump's attack on Syria has not prevented the enemy from using the airfield

So reports the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, according to CNBC here.

Gorsuch confirmed to Supreme Court 54-45

The roll call vote is here.

3 Democrats joined the Republicans in confirming despite the changing of the filibuster rule.

1 Republican did not vote.

ADP had private payrolls up 263,000 earlier this week, but we only get 98,000 from the BLS today

When the expected BLS increase to total nonfarm was 180,000.

What's up with that?!

Long story short: Forget ADP, and employment gains have slowed by 15% in the last year. 

ADP is designed to try to predict what the BLS is going to say, and is known to fail at this. It is questioned why ADP even bothers. I agree.

A government measure from the Household Survey, the sum of usually full-time and usually part-time, not seasonally adjusted, is up only 1.89 million (157,500 per month) year over year in March 2017.

Total nonfarm, on the other hand, from the Establishment Survey, is up 2.135 million, not seasonally adjusted (178,000 per month) year over year.

That last number, 178,000 per month, is what the BLS also says is the current 3-month average in March 2017.

Compare that to March 2016 when the 3-month average was 209,000.

There's the truth.

The soft number of 98,000 in the headline today contributed to the climb-down in the 3-month average this month. It will be revised next month, probably up because it's so low. But it's the revisions down for the previous two months totaling 38,000 which are the clue to look farther back.   

The absolute number is not important because we can't be certain about it. It is only an estimate anyway, not an actual count. But we can be certain that the long-term behavior of the estimates shows an employment slow down of about 15% year over year.

It was well underway before Trump even got elected.

You can see that in full-time employment gains. Measured in March year over year, full-time gains peaked in March 2015 at almost 3 million additions. Gains have steadily fallen since, to 2.5 million in March 2016 and just 2 million now in March 2017.

And the bottom line there is we've added about only 4.7 million full-time jobs since March 2008 on net.

After NINE years.

The country remains mired in shrunken conditions from which it has not escaped.

In a real recovery, the 10 million full-time jobs lost in 2009 and 2010 would have been fully replaced by 2013 at the latest. It took until 2015, and the momentum immediately started to recede.

Trump's little display last night burned up almost $100 million in cruise missile costs

The terrorists can bankrupt the US with every atrocity at this rate: $1.17 million per victim.

Drudge as Trump propagandist: Switches to "total employed" from "95 million not in labor force"

Drudge is excited about 5.6 million extra jobs . . . after 10 years

Trump ... goooooooood.

Obama ... baaaaaaaaaad.

The Deep State: Eisenhower knew it as the military-industrial complex

The military leadership is shot through with liberal neocons bent on perpetual war to keep the warriors busy.

What interest does its intelligence network have in telling the truth to a civilian commander in chief about who did what with which to whom in Syria?

They all lied about WMD in Iraq, as surely as Obama & Co. lied to us about Obamacare.

Trump's just their latest patsy to keep the money flowing to the underlying businesses.

Trump sets off Hillary's canceled fireworks display from last November, right after she advises this Syria attack

Hillary Clinton on Thursday called for the United States to bomb Syrian air fields. ... "I really believe we should have and still should take out his air fields and prevent him from being able to use them to bomb innocent people and drop sarin gas on them."