Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Obama's war on coal kills Peabody Energy, the US' largest coal company

Number two Arch Coal went belly up in January.

Story here.

Meanwhile 7 coal-fired power plants in Michigan are closing this week to meet new EPA emission regulations. Almost 1,000 megawatts of electricity generating capacity go away as a result, to be replaced by north of 500 megawatts of capacity from a natural gas plant.

Details here.

Conservative elites want us dead, Trump wants us to live, any questions?

Watch it here.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

No, it's all the savage thugs under-executed


When the Supremes rule that men can pee and poop in all little girls bathrooms, John Kasich will just say it's time to move on


OK, somebody confiscate this guy's Republican registration right away before someone gets hurt.

Lyin' Ted is on Hannity right now claiming he's won the last eleven primary elections

The guy still can't count. 

Let's see. Trump has won Michigan, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Arizona. That's seven.

Cruz has won Utah and Wisconsin. That's two.

Kasich's won one, Ohio, and Rubio one, DC.

Total = eleven.

It would be good if Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota held actual elections, but they haven't, and won't.

Imagine the fibs he'll tell as president. 


Delegate race update: Trump rises to 755, and after April 26th it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz

Trump is up to 755 today with 12 from Missouri. Cruz has 545. Trump needs 57% of the 842 left to get to 1237. Cruz needs 82%.

It will be mathematically impossible for Cruz after April 26th, by when 267 delegates will have been decided in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, leaving just 575 delegates for contests in May and June.

Missouri finally hands over 12 delegates to Trump a month after he won them, pushing him up to 755

From the story here:

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump added 12 delegates from Missouri on Tuesday, nearly a month after his narrow victory in the state's primary.

Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander — a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate — certified the March 15 primary results, giving Trump the additional delegates.

The race had been too close to call, but according to the final tally, Trump won with 383,631 votes. Ted Cruz had 381,666 votes.

The difference between conservative talk radio and Donald J. Trump is basically religious

Conservative talk radio accepts the rules but Donald J. Trump flouts them.

He's a good Protestant, and a great American: The father of our country, George Washington, refused to take communion, and wouldn't kneel in prayer.

The GOPe can write all the rules they want, and then they can rewrite them.

Better get started.

In response to angry caller about Colorado Republicans, Limbaugh says Colorado wrote the rules to stop Cruz, not help him

This is the standard Limbaugh response, which is nothing more than Ted Cruz' own "me-too" argument in a different form.

Trump will stop illegal immigration? Me too! (nevermind I'm trying to expand immigration)

Trump wants to build a wall? Me too! (nevermind I never mentioned it until Trump came along)

Trump is against lousy trade agreements? Me too! (nevermind Paul Ryan and I are for TPA and TPP) 

Claiming that Colorado wrote its rules to stop Cruz is nothing more than trying to paint Cruz with Trump's colors, as if Cruz is a victim just like Trump. THEN WHY DID CRUZ WIN ALL THE DELEGATES, HUH?

It's called reaching for the coat tails.

Limbaugh's man Ted Cruz has been sucking air since Trump arrived on the scene and has only survived by learning how to run in Trump's slipstream.

John Kasich thinks the Supreme Court runs this country, not the people, just like the GOPe thinks it picks the candidate, not you


“I do believe in traditional marriage, but the court has ruled, and it’s time to move on.”

Hey honey, look at this! Intellectuals!

John Kasich in NY today
Rick Perry

#NeverTrump Ricketts family billion$ behind the delegate poaching effort benefiting Ted Cruz in North Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming

From the story here:

After that contest [North Dakota], Brian Baker, a senior adviser to the PAC [Our Principles PAC], issued a statement asserting that the race “is coming down to a ground game battle for delegates. We will fight for every last delegate vote all the way to Cleveland.” Baker also advises the PAC’s biggest donors, the Ricketts family, who had contributed $5 million of the $8 million raised by the PAC through the end of February, and who had come under fire from Trump when their involvement was revealed.


Weekly NBC/SurveyMonkey poll gives it in November to Hillary, by only 2 over Trump, by 5 over Cruz

The race has always been closer than MSM let on. Most of their polling is designed to shape opinion, not measure it.

Details here.

In early March Rasmussen here showed Hillary ahead of Trump 41-36 for the first time after two polls in late 2015 had shown that match-up close at one or two points either way, in other words, too close to call.

Clueless Gruber quotes Mark Levin criticizing #NeverTrump, doesn't realize he's joined it

At the top of this last hour on his radio show.

Mark Levin, quoted here last Friday:

"So count me as never Trump.”

Keep working at it, Steve, you'll get it right someday.

Your vote means something: Now that would be a revolution

Donald Trump, quoted here:

'It's not right. We're supposed to be a democracy. We're supposed to be: You vote and the vote means something, all right? You vote, and the vote means something. And we've got to do something about it. We should have won a long time ago but we keep losing where we're winning. Today winning votes doesn't mean anything,' he said.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Rush accepts misleading NBC analysis showing Trump over performing delegate wins by 22%

From the NBC analysis here:

Trump now leads the Republican field with 756 delegates — or 45 percent of all delegates awarded to date. Yet he has won about 37 percent of all votes in the primaries, according to the NBC analysis, meaning Trump's delegate support is greater than his actual support from voters.

The math is not mistaken, just misleading.

If roughly 1635 delegates have been awarded so far to all GOP players, then Trump's delegate count represents 46% of those. The difference from 37% of the votes cast is indeed 22%.

But that's not a measure of Trump's "gaming" of the system, only of his real popularity over his competitors.

He's won, after all, 20 states outright in the popular vote while Cruz has won only 9. Trump should have a greater percentage of the delegates for that reason. And he does.

Republican proportional voting rules are bleeding delegates from both Trump and Cruz at about the same 35% rate

Trump has won the popular vote in 20 contests representing 924 delegates, of which he has been allocated only 609, or 66%. The proportional voting rules based on congressional district performance have thus bled away 34% of his support in those races. Ted Cruz bled away 206 delegates from Trump in these states, 22% of the total.

Cruz has won the popular vote in only 9 contests representing 433 delegates, of which he has been allocated just 271, or 63%. The rules have thus bled away 37% of his support in those races. Donald Trump bled away 115 delegates from Cruz in these states, 27% of the total.

And, on average, 10% of the delegates legitimately owed to both Trump and Cruz have gone to candidates who have had no chance of winning whatsoever, and wouldn't be able to argue they have a chance of winning were it not for this insane way of proceeding which gives them the delegates to say so in the first place.

It doesn't seem fair to the voters in these 29 states that their candidates won the popular vote but didn't win all the delegates, as in winner take all, which will most certainly be the rule when the Republican nominee finally faces the Democrat in November.

If all delegates in the Democrat primaries were allotted on a winner take all basis, the outcome wouldn't be much different than it is

Based only on the 29 states so far where Democrats have held contests which collected a popular vote, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders with 1142 pledged and super delegates to his 371 based on the Bloomberg data here, which are not complete in instances. That's a 75% to 25% race.

Turn it into winner take all instead, and the result isn't significantly different. Hillary would have 1803 pledged and super delegates from the 16 states in which she was the popular vote winner, and Bernie would have 698 from the 13 states in which he won the popular vote. That's a 72% to 28% race.

This analysis leaves out the 301 delegates so far where no popular vote was taken. They come from Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Washington, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana islands and something called "Democrats Abroad".

It also leaves out the delegates Bernie has "poached" from Hillary under the rules in the states she has won, as well as the delegates Hillary has poached from Bernie where he has won the popular vote. On net I calculate Bernie has had the advantage from poaching, with 334 extra delegates in his column as a result in the 29 popular vote contests (661 minus 327).

As the delegate race stands today including all contests, it's a 62% to 38% race, with Clinton holding 1756 pledged and super delegates to Sanders' 1068.

That's close to the popular vote result on a percentage basis, where Clinton leads with 57% of the popular vote so far to Sanders' 43%, keeping in mind that we don't have a popular vote from 8 states and territories so far to make the analysis complete. 

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Trump has won the popular vote in 20 of 32 states, should have 924 delegates under winner take all, gets only 743 under Republican rules

To date Donald Trump has won the popular vote in 20 of the 32 primary/caucus contests, entitling him to their 924 delegates on the winner take all principle, but the Republican "rules" made at the state level give Trump just 80% of these overall, while enriching others with undeserved delegate allocations at his expense.

Imagine if that happened in actual presidential elections, where the winner of the popular vote in a state normally wins all the state's electoral college votes representing both political parties. Under the current Republican rules applied to the presidential election, the Republican candidate and the Democrat candidate might so split the electoral college vote between themselves that the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives under the 12th amendment because no one happened to reach the majority of 270. Think of that at the federal level as the equivalent of a party convention at the state level deciding the outcome because, in the case of Trump, he failed to reach 1,237. The more likely outcome would be Republicans losing national elections because of close contests in traditionally Republican states where Democrats still lose but cut into their electoral college allocations if winner take all goes by the roadside. Republicans at the state level are actually paving the way in practice for Democrat reform efforts of electoral college rules.

The unfairness of that is self-evident. Winner take all in a state in presidential elections is designed to smooth the way to national unity. But the Republicans have instituted "proportionality" rules to the extent that they can't, in their mad factionalism, unite along lines which are similarly simple, reasonable and attractive to people who wish to embrace the party, and their country. Donald Trump has brought hordes of new voters to the Republican Party, but all Republican Party elites can do is turn up their noses at them. 

Ted Cruz, who has won the popular vote in just 9 contests so far compared to Trump's 20, is entitled to only 433 delegates using winner take all. But he has 545 at this hour, 26% more than he should have, some of which come from states and territories where the people themselves aren't even allowed by the Republican elites to formalize their opinion by voting.

There is no popular vote taken this year so far in Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands or American Samoa. Republican elites from these places decide who gets their combined 153 delegates. And #NeverTrump factions in these and other states have worked hard to make sure Trump gets as few of them as possible, if any.

To make matters worse, obvious losers like Marco Rubio and John Kasich are playing spoiler roles out of all proportion to their standing because of these rules.

Kasich has a legitimate claim on the delegates of only the one state he has won, Ohio. Instead of the 66 delegates he's entitled to, the Byzantine rules of Republicanism give him 143, 117% more than he should have.

In the case of Little Marco, he's still trying to bind his allotted 171 delegates to himself when they should be free agents because he's dropped out of the race entirely. Entitled to only 57 delegates from winning just two contests in Minnesota and DC, Rubio's unfair influence has been magnified 200% beyond what he's legitimately won because of proportional allocation rules in this year's contests.

The message being sent by Republicanism is obvious to everyone. The Republican Party is an exclusive club which has complicated, intricate rules for membership designed to keep out the riffraff, not win national elections.

Unfortunately, those rules will continue to keep the executive power far out of reach for them.

If they want to win the White House, Republicans should embrace the new voters, and Trump.

To do otherwise is political suicide.

Trump has big delegate win at Michigan Republican convention, libertarian wack job Rep. Justin Amash DEFEATED

Justin Amash endorsed Rand Paul in May 2015; Cruz is only his default candidate
CNN reports here:

Trump's national delegate director, Brian Jack, called it a "big win" for Trump. "The most important votes occurred this afternoon -- we went 5-0. Five delegates for Mr. Trump ran for committee assignments; all five were elected," Jack said. He added, "This was a big win for Team Trump. We won 25 delegates from Michigan last month, and now, at least 25 supporters of Mr. Trump will be delegates to the Republican National Convention." ... Of Michigan's 59 delegates selected Friday and Saturday, Trump supporters filled 25 spots, Cruz supporters filled 17 and Kasich supporters took another 17 -- although it was unclear who all the delegates were permanently aligned with. ... Kasich supporter Chuck Yob -- the father of Republican operative John Yob -- beat Cruz supporter Rep. Justin Amash for the other spot on the credentials committee.