Climate Update for KGRR: July 2021 was utterly normal

 

 

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: July 2021 was utterly normal, UTTERLY I SAY!

Max T 89, Mean 94

Min T 53, Mean 49

Av T 72.3, Mean 72.3

Rain 4.44, Mean 3.15

Cooling Degree Days 236, Mean 242; CDD to date 505, Mean to date 426.

 

By average temperature, July 2021 was utterly normal, registering the mean. But to listen to the headlines, July 2021 was the hottest July ever globally. How then did Grand Rapids escape such abnormality by registering such utter normality? Should there not be some sign of temperature pressure in Grand Rapids from this horrible state of affairs all around us, as there was for example in 1936, the hottest July in the United States on record, or in 1901, the second hottest July? 

It's all BS. Grand Rapids' hottest days are long behind us, as are the world's, as Tony Heller frequently demonstrates.

Grand Rapids' 11 hottest months of July by average temperature are overwhelmingly a thing of the past. 8 of the 11 instances, 73%, occurred from 1936 and earlier. Just three instances occurred in the post-war. The record breaking heat waves of 1936 and 1901 made themselves clearly felt in Grand Rapids, both years making the top five, while the so-called hottest July ever globally, July 2021, was a giant nothing burger for heat.

1921: 79.7 degrees F

2012: 79.2

1916: 78.7

1901: 78.1

1936: 77.3

2011: 77.0

1955: 76.9

1934: 76.8

1935: 76.5

1897: 76.3

1931: 75.8.

 

 

The weekend help at KGRR ain't cuttin' it: They predicted 90 F, we made it to 86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Imagine being that far off about temperature predictions for a decade from now, or for a century from now, and you get my meaning.

Climate Update for KGRR: June 2021

June 2021 was very warm, and about as wet as it gets. The month was the 12th warmest on record by average temperature, and the second wettest, behind only June 1892 when 13.22 inches of rain fell.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: June 2021

Max T 90, Mean 91

Min T 41, Mean 43

Av T 70.9, Mean 67.7

 

Rain 8.49, Mean 3.58 (there are now 23 months since 1892 in the record with rain in excess of 8.0 inches-13 months in the range of 8.0, six months in the range of 9.0, one at 10.01, two in the range of 11.0, and the all time record 13.22 inches)

 

Snow 0, Mean T, Season now concludes with 46.1 inches, Mean season 66.6 (21st least snowy season on record)

Heating degree days 26, Mean 53, Season now concludes with 6170, Mean season 6697 (15th warmest on record at 7.9% fewer HDD than the mean)

Cooling degree days 207, Mean 140

 

July is 2/3 in the bank and is already behind the mean to date for both rain and cooling degree days. 

The crabbed little view of climate from Worcestershire

Something called the "environment manager" from Worcestershire has circulated these charts on Twitter, as if they say something profound about "how things have changed".

Oh really.

 

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June 1976 vs. June 2021 are compared for temperature anomaly relative to what amounts to a microscopic baseline, 1951-1980. This baseline was doubtlessly cherry-picked because average temperatures were conveniently cooler during this period than both before it and after it.

For my station, KGRR, the June average annual mean temperature during the baseline period is 67.1. But before that it was 67.7, and 68.1 after it.  That little baseline period gives you the maximum anomaly. June 1976 was 2.3 degrees F higher than 67.1, and June 2021 3.8 degrees F higher, but this tells you nothing important.

 

You can't conclude anything significant from this when there were three hotter Junes than June 2021 in 1987, 1991, and 2005. Hot as it was, June 2021 was cooler than those three Junes. Are we cooling?

In fact, for KGRR since 1892, there were 11 Junes HOTTER than June 2021 all told. And while three of those occurred since the end of the chosen baseline period in 1980 as just mentioned, eight occurred before 1951: June 1919, 1933, 1921, 1934, 1923, 1949, 1894, 1931.

 

That's 8 Junes before 1951 all hotter than June 2021, and 3 Junes since 1980 which were hotter.

Nothing's really changed. Hot Junes were more frequent in the distant past.

And keep in mind that those global temperature maps aren't based on measurements. Temperatures all over the place aren't "taken". Most are modeled, and many are "imputed" from measurements taken too far away to pass the smell test.

 

But they are very colorful.

June 2021 to date is 2nd rainiest June ever in Grand Rapids, MI, and one of just 23 months since 1892 with 8 inches of rain or more, ranking 14th so far

June 2021 to date is the 14th rainiest month in Grand Rapids, MI, since 1892:

 

Jun 1892: 13.22

Sep 1986: 11.85

Apr 2013: 11.10

May 2001: 10.01

Oct 2017:  9.69

May 2000: 9.59

Sep 2008:  9.54

Sep 1981:  9.52

May 2004: 9.29

Sep 1961:  9.15

Jul 1992:   8.83

Aug 1987: 8.46

Jul 1950:   8.42

 

Jun 1-26, 2021: 8.40

 

Oct 1954: 8.32

Apr 1909: 8.29

May 1981: 8.29

Jun 1967: 8.21

Sep 1993: 8.20

Sep 1915: 8.11

Jul 1994: 8.07

Jun 2010: 8.04

Jun 1928: 8.03.

 

Among the 23 months with 8 inches of rain or more in Grand Rapids, MI, since 1892, June 24-26, 2021 stands out as one of just five 2-3 consecutive day rain events with 5.5 inches or more:

May 10-11, 1981: 6.51 inches of rain

Sep 9-11, 1986:    6.43

 

Jun 24-26, 2021:  6.17

 

May 14-16, 2001: 5.97

Jul 5-7, 1994:       5.54.

 

74% of the 23 months with 8 inches of rain or more in GR occurred after 1960, consistent with the higher rainfall trend generally in the graph below.

 

The June 2021 event caused a run on portable submersible pumps needed by homeowners to evacuate pooling water in low areas and basements due to saturated ground. Flood warnings remain in effect for the area through Monday.

 

Even so, Grand Rapids is still running over 2 inches behind on mean rainfall year-to-date.

 

June 26, 2021 ranks 7th for daily maximum rainfall on a single day in June since 1892 at 2.81 inches.

 

The most rain ever to fall on a single day in Grand Rapids is 4.22 inches, occurring on June 5, 1905 and again on August 19, 1939. Those extreme events are associated with the hotter, dryer pre-1960 half of the graph.

 

Mean annual daily maximum precipitation in GR is 2.27 inches, with June ranking the highest month at 1.29, followed by September at 1.26.

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: May 2021

Climate Update for KGRR: May 2021

 

Max T 86, Mean 86

Min T 30, Mean 32

Av T 57.5, Mean 57.9

Rain 1.92, Mean 3.47

Snow 0, Mean 0.2

Heating Degree Days 281, Mean 253; HDD season to date 6144, Mean season to date 6648

Cooling Degree Days 59, Mean 39 

The heating season has been about 7.6% milder than the mean. There have been well over 50 years in the record since 1902 which have been milder still.

Climate Update for KGRR: April 2021

Climate Update for KGRR: April 2021

Max T 80, Mean 79

Min T 16, Mean 22 (14th coldest on record-tie)

Av T 48.5, Mean 46.5

Precip 1.91, Mean 3.3 (18th driest on record)

Snow 0.3, Mean 2.4

Heating Degree Days 491, Mean 553

HDD season to date 5863, Mean 6395 (8.3% warmer than mean to date; season set to make the top 20 warmest on record)

Cooling Degree Days 3, Mean 5

Climate Update for KGRR: March 2021

Climate Update for KGRR: March 2021

Max T 74, Mean 66

Min T 13, Mean 7

Av T 41.2, Mean 34.1 (eighth warmest on record-tie)

Precip 1.51, Mean 2.45

Snow T, Mean 9.0 (second least snowy on record)

Heating Degree Days 728, Mean 952 (eighth warmest on record)

Cooling Degree Days 0, Mean 0

Climate Update for KGRR: February 2021

Climate Update for KGRR: February 2021

Max T 48, Mean 50

Min T -12, Mean -2

Av T 20.8, Mean 24.5

Precip 1.84, Mean 1.79

Snow 30.6, Mean 13.3

Heating Degree Days 1231, Mean 1136

HDD to date 4644, Mean to date 4890, season to date 5% below mean

Mean annual HDD 6702, Max was 7712 in 1904 (15.1% above mean, coldest ever), Min was 5253 in 2012 (21.6% below mean, warmest ever)

Feb 2021 was the 30th coldest Feb on record in Grand Rapids, MI, bringing the year to date down to 5% warmer than normal from 9% last month. 

Climate Update for KGRR: January 2021

 

Climate Update for KGRR: January 2021

Max T 41, Mean 48

Min T 11, Mean -3

Av T 28.1, Mean 23.8

Precip 1.37, Mean 2.07

Snow 9.9, Mean 18.4

HDD 1136, Mean 1269

HDD season to date 3413, Mean 3754 (season to date 9.08% below the mean)

Climate Update for KGRR: December 2020 and 2020 Annual

 

Climate Update for KGRR: December 2020

Max T 53, Mean 53, Annual Max T 94, Mean 94

Min T 18, Mean 4, Annual Min T 4, Mean -7, tied for eighth highest on record with 2010 and 1911

Av T 32.4, Mean 28.4, Annual Av T 50.1, Mean 48.2, fifteenth highest on record

Rain 2.81, Mean 2.45, Annual 37.44, Mean 34.77

Snow 4.9, Mean 16, Snow season to date 5.3, Mean 22.7

HDD 1001, Mean 1128, HDD season to date 2277, Mean 2485

CDD Annual 832, Mean 694, Peak year was in 1921 at 1200

By average temperature 2020 was 3.9% warmer than the mean, not because the shorter summer season was especially hot but because minimum temperatures in the longer winter season moderated.

Climate Updates for KGRR: October and November 2020

 October 2020 Climate Update for KGRR

Max T 79, Mean 79

Min T 25, Mean 28

Av T 48, Mean 51.3

Rain 2.67, Mean 3.03

Snow Tr, Mean 0.4

Heating Degree Days 527, Mean 424

Cooling Degree Days 0, Mean 9

Cooling Degree Days to date 829, Mean 700

 November 2020 Climate Update for KGRR

Max T 77, Mean 66

Min T 22, Mean 17

Av T 44.3, Mean 39.1

Rain 2.27, Mean 2.84

Snow 0.4, Mean 6.3

Heating Degree Days 614, Mean 772

Cooling Degree Days 3, Mean 0

Cooling Degree Days to date 832, Mean 700

Average Temperature Year to date 51.7, Mean to date 50: 2020 average temperature is running 3.4% above the mean.

Peak average annual temperature since 1898 occurred in 2012 at 52.8 degrees F, 9.5% above the mean average annual temperature of 48.2.

So it's been warmer than normal in 2020 to date, but nothing record-setting.

Grand Rapids, MI is forecast to receive its first sub 20 degree F temperatures of the season this week.

Climate update for KGRR: September 2020

    Climate update for KGRR: September 2020

Everything was sub-mean in September 2020.

Max temp 85, Mean Max 88

Min temp 36, Mean Min 37

Av temp 61.5, Mean av 62.7

Rain 3.07, Mean 3.59

Cooling degree days 36, Mean 76

Heating degree days 133, Mean 134

Cooling degree days to date 829 vs. mean to date 691 puts the summer measuring season, almost over, so far about 26th warmest on record. Whoopdeedoo.

Heating degree days to date (yes, we start measuring in July) 135 vs. mean to date 161. The furnace and the fireplace don't have much work to do yet.

Climate update for KGRR August 2020

Climate update for KGRR August 2020

Max T 91, Mean 92

Min T 52, Mean 47 (tied for 5th warmest low on record with 2018, 2001 and 1938; 1900 and 1939 are tied for warmest minimum at 56)

Av T 72, Mean 70.3

Rain 2.6, Mean 3.07

CDD 228, Mean 189

Cooling Degree Days, season to date 793, Mean to date 615

Climate Update for KGRR July 2020

Climate Update for KGRR July 2020

Max Temp 94, Mean 94

Min Temp 58, Mean 49 (tied for second highest minimum since 1892 with 2011 and 1921)

Av Temp 75.7, Mean 72.3

Rain 4.75, Mean 3.14

Cooling Degree Days 340, Mean 242

CDD Season to date 565, Mean 426

Climate Update For KGRR June 2020

Climate Update For KGRR June 2020

Max T 93, Mean 91

Min T 42, Mean 43

Av T 69.6, Mean 67.7

Precip 2.84, Mean 3.55

Snow measurement season officially ends: Actual 53.5, Mean 66.7.

Heating degree day measurement season officially ends: Actual 6269, Mean 6702; season 6.46% milder than the mean, ranks a "meh" 18th among mildest winters since 1891-92.

Cooling degree days 2020 season to date: 225, Mean 184, hot start to summer 22.3% above the mean.

Climate Update for KGRR May 2020

Climate Update for KGRR May 2020

Max temp 90, Mean 86

Min temp 26, Mean 32

Av temp 56.7, Mean 57.9

Rain 4.22, Mean 3.48

Snow trace, Mean 0.2

HDD 298, Mean 252, Season 6240, Mean 6651, anomaly -411, season to date 6.17% milder than mean and currently ranks only 18th in the list of mildest winters

CDD 50, Mean 39, Season 50, Mean 45

April 2020 Climate Update for KGRR, Grand Rapids, Michigan

April 2020 Climate Update for KGRR

Max temp 75, Mean 79

Min temp 24, Mean 22

Av temp 44.2, Mean 46.5

Precip 4.09, Mean 3.31

Snow 2.2, Mean 2.4

HDD 617, Mean 553

HDD to date 5942, Mean to date 6399

Using Heating Degree Days, a deficit of 457 HDD from the mean to date indicates that this winter has been 7.14% milder through April than the mean winter through April.

May has already racked up enough HDD, however, to take this winter season out of the running to make the list of top ten warmest winters on record. 

Climate Update for KGRR March 2020

Climate Update for KGRR March 2020

Max Temp 63, Mean 66

Min Temp 17, Mean 7

Av Temp 38.6 Mean 34.1

Precip 3.27 Mean 2.46

Snow 2.8 Mean 9.0

HDD 808 Mean 954

HDD YTD 5325 Mean HDD YTD 5846

Using Heating Degree Days, the winter season in Grand Rapids, MI, year-to-date has been 8.9% milder than the mean.

As always, my mean data is from the beginning of the record, which in most cases means 1892. There are lacunae for some months in the earliest years.

Climate update for KGRR February 2020

Climate Update for KGRR February 2020

Max Temp 51, Mean 50

Min Temp 4, Mean -2

Av Temp 27.5, Mean 24.5

Rain 1.2, Mean 1.79

Snow 15.9, Mean 13.2

HDD 1081, Mean 1136

HDD to date 4517, Mean to date 4892

By heating degree days the winter has been milder than the mean winter in Grand Rapids, Michigan, by 7.7%.