Core pce inflation has been higher and rising in May, June, July, and August than it was when Trump took office in January

 

Core pce inflation year over year in August 2025 rose again for the fourth consecutive month to 2.90% from 2.85% in July

 CoRe InFlAtIoN rAtE hElD aT 2.9% In AuGuSt, aS eXpEcTeD, FeD’s GaUgE sHoWs

The damn thing's elevated 74% above the average 1.67 for the twenty-five years 1996-2020 and we're supposed to be OK with it because it's "as expected".

Jai Ya.

 

 

CNBC has a good table of all the stuff that cost more in August 2025

I had to shell out a grand for new brake lines on one old car last month, and nearly half that on a tune-up for the other.

Beats buying a new car by a long shot, but holy hell, motor vehicle repair up 15% yoy.

 

 Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2025 — in one chart

 

 

You're telling me the Fed is going to cut when core cpi inflation at 3.1% year over year in August 2025 is a rate 72% higher than prevailed 2010-2020?

 

Core producer prices, not seasonally adjusted, were up 2.827% year over year in today's report for August 2025

 The climb-down from last month's report for July 2025 at 3.655% year over year was YUGE.

The numbers have been quite volatile for the last four months. 

In today's release, the yoy numbers for Nov 2024 through Mar 2025 remain unchanged from last month's report. The five month average of these for the yoy increase in core wholesale prices has been 3.711%.

Last month the average for April through July came in lower, at 3.144% year over year, but that has now been revised even lower in this month's report, by 2%, to 3.081% yoy.

Combined with the fresh August reading at 2.827% yoy, clearly the trend for the rate increases has been lower overall.

But these levels are far higher than the average 1.629% which prevailed 2012-2020 inclusive. Our new lower August reading is a rate still nearly 74% higher than that.

The wholesale price environment remains highly inflationary compared with the pre-pandemic era.

 

 

 

Treasury Secretary Bessent tells a whopper

 

Bessent: Tariff Income And Fiscal Improvement Have Made The U.S. Bond Market The Best Performing In The Developed World

 

These jokers have added $1.2 trillion to the national debt in TWO months.

 

The 10-year US Treasury has returned 1.013% nominal in the last twelve months, -1.419% real. 

Gaslighting: Spot gold to $3,433.99, spot silver to $39.14 on persistent core inflation of 2.77% average yoy for the last 18 months, 85% higher than the old normal, not on rate cut probability

 

They want a rate cut so bad, everything points to one, including what doesn't. 

 Gold on track for best month in four as inflation data bolsters rate cut bets

... Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,433.99 per ounce. Bullion has gained 4.4% in August so far. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $3,497.30. ... 

Spot silver added 0.2% to $39.14 per ounce and gained for the fourth straight month. ...                        

PM Update:

... Spot gold was up 0.9% at $3,447.09 per ounce. ... Spot silver added 2.1% to $39.89 per ounce ... 

The core pce inflation rate was 48% lower 2009-2020 than it was in July 2025

 The July 2025 yoy rate of core pce inflation, the Fed's key measure, rose to 2.877%, the third increase in the rate since April.

The average rate 2009-2020 was 1.5%.

Averaging 2.77% for the last year and a half is not progress. 

 

When the deck should have been the headline

 

Frozen orange juice concentrate, coffee, bananas, and chocolate chip cookies also made new record high average prices in July 2025

 

Frozen orange juice concentrate $4.641/12oz

Coffee $8.414/lb

Bananas $0.657

Chocolate Chip cookies $5.264

 

Even though bananas and chocolate chip cookies made new highs, they are good values adjusted for inflation since 1980. Bananas are 49% lower than they should be, and the cookies are 12% lower. Most US bananas come from Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Honduras.

Coffee is running 3.9% ahead of its inflation adjusted price from July 1984, and OJ is running 3.4% ahead of its inflation adjusted price since July 1980.

All nearly fifty food items I track are still near their all time highs. 

We've had no fewer than seven spikes of serious food inflation running ahead of core inflation just since the year 2000.

Agricultural export prices also have soared since then. What a coincidence.

 

 

All eight beef prices I track made new record average highs in July 2025

Adjusted for inflation since July 1984, 100% ground beef should cost $3.88/lb in July 2025, but it's actually 61% higher than that.

 

  

100% Ground Beef $6.254/lb

Ground Chuck 6.338

Round Roast 7.909

All uncooked beef roasts 8.397

Choice chuck roast 8.439

Round steak 8.69

All uncooked beef steaks 11.875

Choice sirloin steak 13.554 

 

 

Adjusted for inflation since 1980, eggs should cost $3.03 a dozen in July 2025, instead they cost $3.60

 

At least Santelli told the truth

 

 ... We’re a couple seconds away, folks, from our July release of the Producer Price Index.

Headline number is– WHOPPINGLY big! Oh my goodness!

Up 9 tenths of a percent. Up 9 tenths. And if you strip out food and energy, guess what? It’s still up 9/10ths. Boy, that equals June of 22! ...

More. 

Forecasters YUGELY underestimated July producer price increases, aka wholesale prices, forecasting +0.2% month over month, getting +0.9% instead lol

 

Hey, they're only off by a factor of 4.5x.

Low inflation expectations based on June were clobbered by the facts, but to hell with the facts. $SPX is down only 0.07% at this hour.

The market cheerleaders desperately cling to the belief that the Fed must lower interest rates in September. When the numbers come in 0.1 below expectations, they go wild and drive up stocks like madmen believing they must be right. When the forecast misses like this they just hold.

On a year over year basis, the forecast was for +2.5% for overall wholesale prices, but they got +3.3% instead, seasonally adjusted.

For core wholesale prices the consensus forecast was for +2.9% year over year, but they got +3.7% instead, again seasonally adjusted.   

Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected

Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.

The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest monthly increase since June 2022.

Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022. ...

It's not a potential sign of inflation, you idiots. It's a real sign.

The year over year numbers, not seasonally adjusted, for core wholesale price increases in the July report are oddly unchanged from the June report in no respect, for the increases since October 2024. In fact, the figures are exactly the same to five decimal places. It's like everybody went on vacation and just copied and pasted and went to the beach: 

Nov 2024: 3.35987

Dec 2024: 3.74962

Jan 2025: 3.92532

Feb 2025: 3.73239

Mar 2025: 3.78846

Apr 2025: 3.07652

May 2025: 3.21542

Jun 2025: 2.62853

and Jul 2025: 3.65568.

The average of these Nov thru May is 3.54965. July looks like that, but June sure the hell still does not.

I smell a rat.

Meanwhile . . . 

Core cpi inflation yoy averaged 2.9% in the first half of 2025, but 3.1% in July.

Core pce inflation yoy averaged 2.8% in the first half of 2025 (July numbers come Aug 29th). 

But core wholesale prices were up 3.4% in the first half on average, and 3.7% in July according to today's report.

How long can producers not pass that along? Or do we have a broader issue here with trustworthy numbers, because Mad King Ludwig is in charge?

CPI food inflation was 2.9% year over year in July 2025 vs. the 1.86% average 2009-2020 and we're supposed to be happy that the Fed might cut interest rates in September

S&P 500 jumps to record high as inflation report gives Fed green light to cut rates: Live updates

The current rate of food inflation is running 56% higher than the average rate for the entire prior decade and more.

Nothing would sing "we can't fix it" more than a rate cut in September, but three in the Autumn would shout "we don't care!" 

 

Core cpi inflation year over year is back above 3% to 3.1% in July 2025, more than expected, the second consecutive monthly increase

But of course overall inflation is what CNBC wants to trumpet because there was an expectation for higher at 2.8% yoy and they got lower.

But one could just as easily say the tariffs are to blame for the higher than expected core rate at 3.1% instead of 3%.

But that wouldn't be cheerleading the markets, now would it?

 

Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries

 

 

Republican Ralph Norman (SC-5), who wants to be South Carolina's next governor, says higher prices due to Trump's tariffs are for the good of the country

 You be happy paying more. 

 ... Notably, Norman was one of the few House lawmakers not to endorse Trump in 2024, backing former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley instead.

In his late July announcement of his upcoming gubernatorial bid, however, he praised Trump, predicting “what he did [in Iran] is going to put him in the annals of the greatest presidents we have ever had.” ...

More. 

There are already five Republicans running for governor in South Carolina. 

The Treasury Secretary is such a kiss-ass and knows damn well that the Fed's so-called full employment mandate was a set of handcuffs put on the Fed in 1978

And why did the Congress do that to the Fed?

So the Congress could evade responsibility for high unemployment as well as for high inflation, that's why.

A bunch of cowards six ways to Sunday they are.

Besides, core personal consumption expenditures is the Fed's key metric, as everyone knows, and that is an inflation metric, not an employment metric. 

And The Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act specifically recognizes that reducing inflation is the Fed's main job, actually mandating ZERO inflation, not 2% inflation as widely misinterpreted. 

Meanwhile there is another report of employment besides the total non-farm payrolls report which the Fed can consult, and it shows employment continues near all-time highs in July.

No change to DFF was the appropriate response of the Fed to persistent core inflation way above 2%.  

 

Bessent: How Can The Fed Set Rates When Jobs Data Is This Broken? "This Was A Five Standard Deviation Mistake"

 

 

 

 

 

The cost of groceries is a major source of stress for 53% of US adults according to AP-NORC poll, followed by the cost of housing

... Esther Bland, 78, who lives in Buckley, Washington, said groceries are a “minor” source of stress — but only because her local food banks fill the gap. Bland relies on her Social Security and disability payments each month to cover her rent and other expenses — such as veterinary care for her dogs — in retirement, after decades working in an office processing product orders.

 

“I have no savings,” she said. “I’m not sure what’s going on politically when it comes to the food banks, but if I lost that, groceries would absolutely be a major source of stress.”

Bland’s monthly income mainly goes toward her electric, water and cable bills, she said, as well as care of her dogs and other household needs.

 

 “Soap, paper towels, toilet paper. I buy gas at Costco, but we haven’t seen $3 a gallon here in a long time,” she said. “I stay home a lot. I only put about 50 miles on my car a week.” ...

 

Bland, the Washington state retiree, said she’s paid for pet surgery with a pay-later plan. ...

 

More. 

 

 

As bad as inflation has been since the pandemic, imagine living with core pce inflation above 3% year over year for twenty-six consecutive years 1967-1992

 If they lived through that, we can live through this, and we will.