If anyone is stuck, it's Gen Xer Peter Thiel

 ... I’m always anti-boomer ...

In The New York Times, here. 

The decline of worker hours in America

 In 1966 all the hours worked by all the full time and part time workers divided by the civilian employment level peaked at about 35.35 hours per worker per week. That's full time level work. That's prosperity.

The flood of Baby Boomers, especially Baby Boomer women under the influence of feminism and the social revolution of the 1960s, and also foreign born workers after the Immigration Act of 1965, into the labor markets after the mid-1960s reduced hours per week per worker by almost 11%, not forming a new stable bottom until the 1980s at about 31.5 hours per week.

Increased labor supply = fewer hours to go around = less prosperity.

By 1999, when peak Baby Boom had passed 40 years of age, hours per week had risen as high as 32.68 per worker per week. That was the end result of the good times kick-started by Ronald Reagan twenty years prior, which hit in four waves: 1984-85, 1989, 1995, and 1999.

But the whole subsequent period 2003-2019 inclusive fell apart.

Many, many troubles reduced hours worked per worker by almost 7% between 1999 and 2009, not the least of which were admission of China to the World Trade Organization in 2001, and the Great Recession.

Hours per week per worker have risen again as of 2022, but only to the old bottom, at around 31.57 per week.

Median real earnings per week are up just $38 since 1979.

Will that be As Good As It Gets?

 

 

 

Peak Baby Boomers worked when they were teenagers, at 2.07% of population, still the peak, today at just 0.78% of population

Get a haircut and get a real job
Clean your act up and don't be a slob
Get it together like your big brother Bob
Why don't you, get a haircut and get a real job?

-- George Thorogood, 1993

 

It's not a perfect one to one comparison, let alone an actual measurement, but about 20% of teenagers worked in 1979, and not quite 12% today:

One reason Americans are fatter than ever might seem to be sloth, except for the fact that 60% of the population worked in both 1979 and 2022 but the average work week dropped by just one hour over the period

According to the CDC, obesity is most severe among those of late middle-age, so if you can prevent it before then you are more likely to escape it later:

The prevalence of severe obesity was highest among adults aged 40–59 compared with other age groups.

Peak Baby Boom turned 40 in 1997.

Americans worked 32.61 hours per week on average in 1979 and 31.57 hours in 2022

All countries in 2016 with 30% of population or more obese

60% of the US population was working in both 1979 and 2022

Greek historian Victor Davis Hanson, born in 1953, flips his lid, laughably blames every single problem in America today on the Baby Boomers in a wildly insane rant, my favorite being . . .

 

 . . . the Baby Boomers destroyed the southern border . . ..

Here.

Immigration policy in the United States was forever radically altered in 1965, by no one born in the Baby Boom.

The average age of a US Representative in 1965 was 51.4, the Congress of which overwhelmingly passed the destructive reform 320-70, which ended the American commitment to social homogeneity prevailing from the 1920s.

This was an act of American hubris, born of victory in WWII. One would think Hanson would know about that.

Their average birth year puts them in 1914, children of the mentally-ill Progressive Era (1896–1917) which gave us the income tax (1909), popular election of senators (1913), prohibition of alcohol (1919), and women's suffrage (1920), all of which were sufferable as long as their was social stability. Well, except for the prohibition.

The biggest problem affecting Baby Boomers is a lazy attention to our own history, and perhaps self-hatred.

Peter Thiel is so mistaken about homeownership in his interview with John Gray

 Peter Thiel says "To unshackle ourselves economically, one should start by attacking the extraordinarily distorted real estate market", but never once mentions how the prime culprits of the distortion were and are all Federal.

These were the commoditization of housing by the so-called Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 under Clinton and Gingrich, followed by Federal Reserve interest rate suppression under Obama after the collapse of the ensuing housing bubble it caused, re-inflating that bubble.

To Thiel "interest rates went steadily down", as if by the influence of some mysterious force. What could it be? He is not i n t e r e s t e d.

Nor does he mention a third Federal culprit, how the demand side for housing was and is distorted by 15% of the population swelling with foreign born in the UK and the US as a direct result of legally admitting millions of immigrants since 1990 in the US and since 1994 in the UK.

These are the legacies of the Bushes, Bill Clinton, John Major, and Tony Blair, now augmented by deliberate non-enforcement of the border in America by the likes of Obama and Biden, turbo-charging the demand side for housing, and prices with it, by flooding the country with illegal aliens.

Thiel observes that culturally "We became too risk-averse, too bureaucratic, too reliant on peer review in the sciences" somehow, but doesn't connect this to the aging demographics, even though he is aware of it. Not re-inflating the prices of homes of Baby Boomers would have been political suicide. He fancies this is now "over", but misses that the heirs of all this property are voters too.

This is not over.

Thiel is essentially a radical, as was Ronald Reagan and also Margaret Thatcher. He completely misses how the libertarian impulse to deregulate under Reagan and Thatcher led in a straight line to the housing catastrophe we all live with these many years later. His libertarianism is myopic.

John Gray: "The difference is that this Truss wing of the Conservative Party wants to go back to Thatcher because they see that as a radical moment and they want to repeat the radical moments. But radical moments are very hard to keep repeating."

Peter Thiel: "They’re hard to repeat by doing the same thing. It was a one-time move to deregulate and lower taxes and then it’s not clear that doing it the second time does much good. ... The Reagan and Thatcher administrations ... allowed more companies to be acquired, more M&A activity to happen. It was a somewhat brutal but very powerful reorganization of society that was possible and in fact the right thing to do in the 1980s."

Incessant headlines about deep American discontent tell us we don't particularly like this now reorganized society. The new world order means your kid is saddled with horrible college debt, can't find a decent job, has to live at home with you, can't buy a house, can't get married, can't have children. 

But Thiel is still dreaming the pipe dream of "exponential growth" to solve these problems. He hopes technology will come to the rescue in the form of remote work:

"Is there some way to reopen a frontier in real estate? The possibility where I think the jury is very out, though it doesn’t look that promising in 2023, would be remote work. Could the internet be a way that people are not stuck in these cities? And that would reset all these real estate values tremendously because even in a rather densely populated country like England, there is plenty of space if you’re not forced to be within the green belt of London itself. And in the United States even more so."

The interview is here.  

CNBC story blames capitalism's law of supply and demand for inflation: 92 million millennials caused it, not Federal Reserve interference with interest rates and mortgages

... too many people with too much money chasing too few goods ... millennials are still making up the largest chunk of the homebuyer market by generation ... 

More.

Meanwhile, this housing bubble dwarfs the last one, and we're supposed to blame millennials for it.

Sounds like a repeat of the excuse for the last one: greedy Baby Boomers.

Just forget about Zero Interest Rate Policy artificially driving down borrowing costs for over a decade, and forget about the crappy low-yielding $2.7 trillion in MBS still on the Fed Balance Sheet nobody wants, because millennials are to blame!

The chutzpah.

Michigan deaths exceed births by 12,921 in 2020 due to pandemic: Births down 50% from peak Baby Boom year 1957

There were 104,166 births in 2020 in Michigan, 50% fewer than in 1957 when there were 208k, the peak year of the Baby Boom in the USA.

There were 117,087 deaths in 2020 in Michigan.

And ~ 99,000 deaths occurred annually in Michigan, pre-pandemic.

Story here.

Therefore ~ 18,087 deaths in 2020 are possibly attributable to the pandemic according to this accounting (117,087 minus 99,000), except NYT data shows only 13,010 pandemic deaths in Michigan in 2020, which is very close to the 12,921 net deaths minus births.

The 5,077 (18,087 minus 13,010) difference in deaths represents 39% more deaths.

Due to what, exactly?

"Alcohol drinking was at its highest point between 1976 and 1978"

 That's because peak Baby Boom from 1957 turned 20 in 1977.

More young thirsty mouths, relatively speaking.

Gallup.

Rush Limbaugh dead at 70, FOX obituary includes famous "preamble to the Constitution" blunder from CPAC 2009

Rush Limbaugh, conservative talk radio pioneer, dead at 70 :

"We believe that the preamble to the Constitution contains an inarguable truth that we are all endowed by our creator with certain inalienable rights, among them life, liberty, Freedom and the pursuit of happiness."

The mistake is fairly typical, both of Rush, and of Rush's audience the Baby Boom for whom basic knowledge of civics had long been in decline. For Rush, and for them, conservatism was always more aspirational than actual, often conflating present perspectives with historical realities.

An example is the Straussians who in our time explicitly argued for the unity of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, giving Thomas Jefferson's more revolutionary, Enlightenment-tinged views in the former too much sway over the interpretation of the latter.

The irony of that fusionism was always that Jefferson sought for the United States "to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them", not the "exceptional" American position touted by Limbaugh as an heir of America's post-war position of global domination.

The Constitution's preamble expressed a matter-of-factly self-interested goal, "to secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity", a country of Americans, by Americans, and for Americans, not a nation of immigrants, by immigrants, and for immigrants, not a nation of heroes marching forth in search of monsters to destroy. America's founding was above all modest, which is perhaps the surest indicator of its inherent conservatism.

If Rush Limbaugh slaughtered the important details on a regular basis, what made the show so enjoyable was the entertainment, which largely came from the sheer pleasure Rush derived from doing it and communicating it, "having more fun than a human being should be allowed to have". If nothing else, Rush Limbaugh was a conservative of enjoyment, and who doesn't want to be around people having a good time? It is one reason for Rush's tremendous success in a career spanning more than three decades.

Students of conservatism might think this a whimsy, not to be taken seriously, but no less a figure than Russell Kirk devoted a chapter to such conservatism in his "The Conservative Mind". Rush himself, from time to time, in his own non-academic way had observed how liberals are not funny and don't have fun, and in this he was on to something. Generally speaking conservatives possess contentment to a far greater degree than do liberals, derived from a judiciously formed view of the self as sinners saved by grace. It is a freeing thing which allows people to accept things as they are, even as God accepts sinners as they are.

Of course in the post-war there has been a tremendous amount for Americans to enjoy, to the point that we have become completely distracted by this. One may rightly say we have overdone it, and that enjoyment has frankly become conservatives' Achilles' heel. It has produced a myriad of problems, not the least of which has been a failure to reproduce, inattention to religion, and a proclivity for the easy politics of the executive where we look for one man to save us. As America was not built by Protestants enjoying religious entertainments and all-you-can-eat brunches on Sundays, it will not be recovered, if that is still possible, but by serious, religious people who work hard, deny themselves, and save.

Rush Limbaugh was an optimist about America because he still believed there were enough individual Americans remaining who exemplified the old virtues. America's future will depend on Rush having been right.

Washington Examiner lists Pocahonky's identity lies, starting with, well, Pocahonky

Here:

It's common knowledge by now that Warren, one of the top four 2020 Democratic presidential contenders, identified as a Native American, despite being somewhere between 0.1% and 3% Native American . . ..

[T]he senator also fibbed when she promised to serve her full Senate term if reelected in 2018. Her 2020 presidential run began a few weeks after she won that election.

Warren has emphasized again and again that her children attended public schools. Her storyline here suffers from a material omission: Her kids also attended private schools. Perhaps this particular misdirection stems from the fact that she’s campaigning against the school choice programs . . ..

Warren’s brother told the Boston Globe, “My dad was never a janitor," and he said it makes him “furious” that Warren has repeatedly claimed otherwise on the campaign trail.

Warren must know that her own background, as a millionaire whose children attended private school, doesn’t fit easily with her soak-the-rich rhetoric.

Commentators often lump Warren's run in with that of Bernie Sanders. But Sanders's base comes from the young and the working class, while Warren's base is mostly highly educated baby boomers who surely feel a warm glow from the belief they are part of some populist uprising.

If it's a number and it comes out of Rush Limbaugh's mouth, it's probably wrong

Today Rush Limbaugh corrected a caller about the Summer of Love, saying it was in 1968, not 1969.

Actually it was in 1967.

Rush also said the Beatles had already broken up by the summer of 1969, the summer of Woodstock, the 50th anniversary of which is happening right this very minute.

The break-up of the Beatles actually occurred Dec 31, 1970, when the band members John, George and Ringo first publicly confirmed it. The last photo of all of them together with Paul as a band was taken August 22, 1969, just after Woodstock had ended.

I know these things because I'm younger than Rush Limbaugh. The Beatles were YUGE to my segment of the Baby Boom generation, but not to his to the same degree.

But Rush gets lots of numbers wrong, about far more consequential things than these, as my readers know.

The only ones he doesn't get wrong are the ones that go in his pocket.

Trump is the permissive Baby Boomer who can't say No, will let in 2 million illegals seeking "asylum" by Election Day 2020

Much smaller than first thought to be, the gig economy lies prostrate before the great wall of state capitalism

"The Gig Economy Increasingly Defines Late-Stage Capitalism

Annie Lowrey, Atlantic" 

 

is how Real Clear Markets links to:

The Truth About the Gig Economy

Uber and similar companies aren’t driving huge changes in the way that Americans make a living.

 

Real Clear Markets' libertarian headline writer completely missed the point of the article, which is that the gig economy is as much as 80% smaller than we first thought. A capitalism disintegrating into a chaos of millions of small holders in risky circumstances, careening into the ditch, is a complete myth. The leftists who still long for this resemble no one so much as the Christian millenarians.

Clearly Marxism-light thoroughly infects economic thinking at the popular level in more places than just The Atlantic, blinding us to where we really are, which is in the golden age of fascism. Here tax reform for the individual is an afterthought, a necessary piece of propaganda in the big scheme of things having to do with state capitalism and its myriad forms of corporate welfare. What really matters is the relationship between government and business, protecting their mutual interests.

The West's version is little different from China's. China exercises top down control through the corrupt Communist Party, but we increasingly have the same thing from the bottom up through the unjust hand of Political Correctness, populated through the right schools and the revolving door of Washington where the regulators become the richly rewarded regulated.

The extension and consolidation of control by this globalist fascist system since the Reagan Revolution is responsible for all the failure lately attributed to capitalism by the coddled generations of children of the post-war Baby Boom. It couldn't be otherwise in a world where everything has been organized to feed the corporation through the glorification of the job. You must go to school, you must get good grades, you must get a college degree in order to get hired, you'll need loans to make this happen, and for the car to get to work, and good credit, and . . .. And then they've got you. It's called preying on human nature.

The declarations of independence of our former youth often used to take the form of getting out of Dodge as soon as they turned eighteen. Now those declarations are a mere shadow of their former selves, taking the form of tattoos on that creature that still lives in your basement in his twenties . . . or thirties.

The risk-taking of capitalism has been expunged, and the consequences of rebelling against the new rigidity have been amplified. Stenosis has set in, and if the barbarians finally do overtake us they will find that the bones break easily.     

Pat Buchanan blames Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama for squandering away the world Bush 41 gave us

Jawohl, the Baby Boom presidents, except Pat won't yet admit that Trump is simply Squanderbucks IV.

Who Lost the World Bush 41 Left Behind?:

Was it not the three presidents who sat so uncomfortably beside President Donald Trump at the state funeral of 41?

Marijuana legalization is the spearhead of America's anti-conservative libertarian tide and ultimately of America's decline

Eventually there will be no place left to hide from marijuana users in America. And they are going to be the end of America as we once knew it. Marijuana legalization is coming to every state in the country, for the reason that a shared version of libertarianism is now America's dominant ideology, irrespective of political party. The consequences of extreme individualism are about to assert themselves like never before. Formerly, self-control and self-denial as practised by countless millions of America's original inhabitants and their descendants had been key to making America the great country which it became. Those values made possible the hard work and savings which were the necessary predicates of that greatness. But all that is in the rear view mirror now. As Baby Boomers squandered  the achievements of their parents, their children have learned from them only too well and have drunk deep from their well of narcissism. People like this will never make the country great like it was. A country full of laid back mellow folks  will never work hard and save, nor even acknowledge its need to do so. It is not a coincidence that the most hated men in America in 2012 and 2016 didn't even drink.

Marijuana Won The Midterm Elections :

Michigan voters approved a ballot measure making their state the first in the midwest to legalize cannabis. Missouri approved an initiative to allow medical marijuana, as did Utah. Voters in several Ohio cities approved local marijuana decriminalization measures, and a number of Wisconsin counties and cities strongly approved nonbinding ballot questions calling for cannabis reform. While North Dakota's long-shot marijuana legalization measure failed, cannabis also scored a number of big victories when it came to the results of candidate races. ... In Illinois, Democrat J.B. Pritzker won the governor's race after making marijuana legalization a centerpiece of his campaign. ... Minnesota Gov.-elect Tim Walz (D) wants to "replace the current failed policy with one that creates tax revenue, grows jobs, builds opportunities for Minnesotans, protects Minnesota kids, and trusts adults to make personal decisions based on their personal freedoms." ... In New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), who won the governor's race, said legalizing marijuana will bring “hundreds of millions of dollars to New Mexico’s economy." In New York, while easily reelected Gov Andrew Cuomo (D) had previously expressed opposition to legalization, he more recently empaneled a working group to draft legislation to end cannabis prohibition that the legislature can consider in 2019, a prospect whose chances just got a lot better in light of the fact that Democrats took control of the state's Senate. In Wisconsin, Democrat Tony Evers supports decriminalizing marijuana and allowing medical cannabis, and says he wants to put a full marijuana legalization question before voters to decide. He ousted incumbent Gov. Scott Walker (R) on Tuesday. ... Last month, a national Gallup survey found that 66 percent of Americans support legalizing marijuana, including a clear majority of Republicans.

 

That idiot Republican Judd Gregg of New Hampshire thinks Woodrow Wilson changed America for the better

He's also the idiot who wrote the TARP bailout.

And now he's the idiot who blames the Baby Boom for the programs bankrupting America: Social Security and Medicare, which pre-date it and were passed by spendthrift Democrats.

Here.

Sorry Jonathon Trugman, one month does not a full-time story make

Here he is, without data:

"Yes, folks, things really are looking better for full-time employment." 

It's true that the percentage of the population working full-time in May 2018 is up, to 50.1%.

Unfortunately the average for the first five months of 2018 is only 49.3%, the same as for the whole of 2017. Despite the surge in May, the average indicates no progress over 2017, yet.

Full-time peaks every year in July or August, so we'll see what happens. But when all is said and done, I'm expecting the full year to average about 49.8%, up about a half point.

In any event, we're still down in the basement trying to climb back to 52.1%, the pre-Great Recession average. To do it, we'll need another 5.1 million jobs, right quick like. If using the averages, 7 million.

But there is no driver for such jobs in this country, because we threw out the old one: housing. The whole economy was based on housing in the post-war, and once the Baby Boom bankers and politicians got their grubby little hands on it under Clinton and Bush 43, they managed to screw that pooch right along with everything else they've touched. A bunch of spendthrifts and squanderers are we. 

Time article joins The Atlantic attacking the new aristocracy's moats, styling it the Baby Boom even though the author doesn't mention it even once

Here in "How Baby Boomers Broke America", which never once mentions the role of the Baby Boom and is really about how lawyers did it.

Steven Brill should sue.

Arbeit macht GDP: At root America's basic economic problems lie at every level in not working enough

There is no age tranche working up to its potential, especially not teenagers, but also not the college-aged, not the core 25 to 54 years, and now not even the over 55 crowd. The latter in fact has only been held up more or less by those over 65 ramping up their participation in the wake of The Great Recession.

It all starts with the phenomenon of "failure to launch" in the teenage years. Baby Boomers didn't simply have fewer children and work less. They had fewer children who also lacked a vigorous work ethic. And that now appears institutionalized in the children of the children as well. This has now rippled through the system, as can be seen in the increasingly later dates for peak average annual participation in the age tranche charts below (1979, 1987, 1997, 2012, and 2016-2017?). GDP will not improve without a cultural reestimation of work. And a return to work will not occur without a need to return, which can only mean one thing:

“from rice paddy to rice paddy in three generations.”

16 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 54

55 and over

65 and over (subset)