Some foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities are selling them to buy oil, which is denominated in DOLLARS, not in yuan

 Thank you for your attention to this matter.

DXY: 99.893 

Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war

 

CNBC doesn't mention that the dollar rallied in the last month along with bonds and gold

 Gold heads for seventh straight monthly gain on safe-haven demand

... The metal has climbed 6.5% so ⁠far in February, bringing gains for the seven months to a whopping 58%. ... The benchmark 10-year yield fell to a three-month low ‌on the day, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying gold. ...

The New York Times on the global economy had me and then it lost me

Because it, like too many commentators, uses an obsolete dollar index in DXY, which measures dollar strength or weakness relative to just SIX currencies: EUR, JPY (!), GBP (!), CAD (!), SEK (!), CHF (!).

 

The Federal Reserve has developed broader indices weighted to the countries the U.S. trades with the most.

 

U.S. GDP is $31.1 trillion. 

EURO ZONE GDP: $16.5 trillion.

Japan: $4.3 trillion.

Great Britain: $3.6 trillion.

Canada: $2.3 trillion.

Sweden: $0.6 trillion.

Switzerland: $1 trillion.

Global GDP: $117 trillion.

 

 The Global Economy’s Warning Signals Are Broken

 

 ... It’s as if cars, instead of slowing down at a flashing yellow light as expected, started speeding up. ...

 

The traditional connection between the American economy’s performance and the value of the dollar has also been snapped. Uncertainty tends to increase the dollar’s value compared with other currencies as investors seek a safe haven in risky times. But the dollar has sunk to its lowest level in years. ...

 

Analysts backed down on their predictions that Mr. Trump’s tariff blitz last spring would cause higher prices ... 

 

Even by DXY standards, the dollar is not weak at 97, well within its long term average range between 95 and 105.

 

And The New York Times is ignoring that wholesale prices increased at a higher rate in 2025 than in either 2024 or 2023. 

 

Anyway, you know what happens when people ignore the flashing yellow:

 

Traffic fatalities surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research highlights the fact that disadvantaged communities bore the brunt of the increase and calls for holistic solutions to promote equitable access to safe transportation.

 

 

Yes, the dollar weakened in January 2026, but within a big picture environment of a strong dollar not a weak dollar

The nominal broad U.S. Dollar Index last averaged below 120 in December 2023.

Gold and silver climbed to all time highs in January 2026, defying the standard narrative that precious metals are the haven of choice when the dollar is weak. 

 

117.89 on Jan 30th

119.22 average in Jan 2026

Gold bug Peter Schiff's problem is that gold represented at best only about 18% of the value of total global international reserves, and that was yesterday before gold started this price plunge

"The dollar is going to collapse", he said.

"The dollar is going to be replaced by gold", he said.

Central banks "are getting rid of dollars", he said.

"They're getting rid of treasuries", he said.

None of that is true.

The nominal broad dollar index remains relatively strong. 

Even foreign official ownership of treasuries is up slightly year over year, shifting slightly from long dated securities to short, while total foreign ownership is up solidly. 

Meanwhile fiat currencies represented about 78% of the value of total global international reserves yesterday. The U.S. Dollar alone represented about 55% of the value, followed by the Euro close to 20%.

Gold is not going to replace the dollar.

But Peter will be happy to sell you some, especially today lol. 

 

The dollar is crashing is the stuff of hysteria

Chart showing US dollar crashing...

 

They do not remember 2008.

And they use an index, .dxy, which many now consider obsolete. 

The dollar is strong. 

 

 

Yet more gold and silver record highs this week in the strongest dollar environment in years: Gold to $4,887.82 per ​ounce on Wednesday, silver to $95.87 on Tuesday

 -- CNBC

But the media and the so-called experts prattle on about dollar weakness.

 

The dollar remained strong in Dec 2025 at the same time that the metals have been surging

 

Stories like this about China destroying the U.S. Dollar just make me want to howl

But hey, what do you expect from MarketWatch?

China quietly destroying the dollar...

... As more commodities get priced in yuan instead of dollars, demand for dollars softens. As central banks diversify into gold, they buy fewer Treasurys. As fewer foreigners buy U.S. debt, interest rates drift higher. As the dollar’s purchasing power erodes, everything you import costs more. ...

This, like most of the story, is a load of BS.

Global demand for U.S. debt is at an ALL TIME HIGH, a record $9.2 trillion in the last three months through October.

You'll know the yuan has replaced the dollar when the world buys Chinese sovereign debt instead of ours. And right now the world owns less than $300 billion of Chinese sovereign debt, billion with a B, not trillion with a T.

Nobody trusts China like they trust us. 

The writer, who owns gold and silver, wants you to dump long term bonds and buy short term bills and . . . gold and silver. Gee, what a coincidence. 

Meanwhile foreign governments continue to prefer long term U.S. Treasuries and own relatively few bills.

And the dollar is relatively strong, not weak as the writer says, in November 2025. 

click to enlarge

 

Year to date spot gold is up ~54%

By comparison, Total Stock Market Index VTSAX is up 14.83% ytd through yesterday.

Total Bond Market Index VBTLX is up 6.4%.

... The [gold] rally has been driven by a cocktail of factors, including . . . a weak dollar. ... -- CNBC 

Would these people know a weak dollar if they saw it?

Trying to explain gold like this is just silly.

The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is 120.51, down 7.4% from the January all time high of 130.21.

The all time low for this index was under Obama in July 2011, at 85.46.

You remember the summer of 2011, right? 

The dollar was at its weakest, America lost its AAA rating, and precisely net zero jobs were created that August, the first time since WWII.

We have a strong dollar today, not a weak one.

 

Oh yes, the poor, poor dollar, that old thing

Dollar heads for worst week since July; yen underpinned by BOJ

I keep hearing that gold is soaring because of continued dollar weakness lol

On the contrary, gold has risen despite continued dollar strength.

The enormous gains for gold in 2024 and 2025 are not explained by a round trip in the dollar index from 120 to 129 and back again. That's just a little side show in the bigger picture of dollar strength.

 

 

The dollar index has made steady progress out of the pit of despair at 85.46 in July 2011 under Barack Obama, the enemy of fossil fuels, to a place of relative strength today averaging above 120 in 2022 and 2023, 123 in 2024, and 125 in the first half of 2025.

Speaking of a weak dollar in this context is laughable.

Maybe the dollar is so strong again because the United States has become a net exporter of oil. The 1975 ban on oil exports was lifted in December 2015. Net imports of oil went negative for the first time since 1950 in 2020.

Gold is probably so strong in part because of increasing debt globally, which like rising prosperity helps drive demand for it as a hedge. Extreme poverty gripped half the world in 1950 but by 2020 it afflicts just 10%. Meanwhile gold production has nearly tripled over the period.

As a percentage of global GDP, global debt has gone from just above 100% of global GDP in 1980 to a whopping 235% of global GDP in 2024.

 

 

 

 

On lowering the Federal Funds Rate when the economy is just fine

John Tamny of Forbes spends four pages trying to convince us falling oil prices are always due to a rising dollar

Here, in Forbes:

"Falling crude prices ... were a function of a rising dollar that revealed itself in a major decline in the price of gold that is and was priced in dollars."

I don't know. Maybe he's trying to convince himself, not us. Reminds me of listening to a religious fanatic who can't stop talking. You know the kind. They usually get older and eventually think the better of it and move on. But not John Tamny.

The idea that a falling dollar produces higher oil prices is a nice theory occasionally supported by the data. The trouble is, there are too many examples of the correlation breaking down.

Crude oil prices from the mid-1980s to 2004 were remarkably range-bound between $12 and $35 a barrel despite the huge drop in the dollar from 1985 and its subsequent rise through the early 2000s. The dollar's rise in the late 1990s did nothing to change this. In fact, oil rose in tandem with the dollar then, as it did marginally after 1995 and as it did at the end of the late recession.

The sheer scale of the moves in oil prices is not commensurate with the relatively small moves in the dollar since 2005, nor is the relative tranquility of oil prices before that explained by the out-sized moves in the dollar.

The case is similar with gold, which at the current price of the dollar is still much, much higher than a dollar at this level in the past would indicate is called for. Gold was quiescent for 20 years and a lot lower than now all the while the dollar moved dramatically down and up again and down, off the 85 level. Contrary to Tamny, the recent decline in the price of gold has hardly been major, and hardly enough to convince that it is hewing to the performance of the dollar.

To illustrate how little gold has cared for the dollar's level, just look at how long it took for gold to peak after the 2008 all-time low in the dollar: over three years. And there is also that roughly 13 point rise in the dollar during the late recession when gold also began its long and biggest leg up.

That's not supposed to happen.

Sorry!

Dollar soars almost a percent to close at 91.15, highest close since December 2005

IEA revises down 2015 oil demand growth by 20%, a third of British oilers in big trouble, mostly smaller

Andrew Critchlow reported Dec. 12th here:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that world demand for oil will grow by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year, a downward revision of 230,000 bpd from its previous estimate.

The Paris-based watchdog now expects world demand to reach 93.3m bpd in 2015. The agency said: "A strong dollar and the lifting of subsidies have so far limited supportive price effects on demand."

And here on the 29th:

A third of Britain’s listed oil and gas companies are in danger of running out of working capital and even going bankrupt amid a slump in the value of crude, according to new research.

Financial risk management group Company Watch believes that 70pc of the UK’s publicly listed oil exploration and production companies are now unprofitable, racking up significant losses in the region of £1.8bn.

The dollar is trading above 90 today

The dollar is trading above 90 today, for the first time since early 2006.

Told ya: Exports decline 1.5% in September, imports at record levels, signaling GDP of 3.5% will be revised lower

And to think just five days ago our masters of deception had no idea this was coming. As usual, this was unexpected.

Reported here:

The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in September as exports hit a five-month low, suggesting slowing global demand could undercut economic growth in the final three months of the year. ...

September's shortfall in the overall trade balance is bigger than the $38.1 billion deficit that the government had assumed in its advance gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the third quarter published last week. This suggests the 3.5 percent annual growth pace it estimated will probably be trimmed when the government publishes its revisions later this month. Trade was reported to have contributed 1.32 percentage points to GDP growth. Exports in September fell 1.5 percent to $195.59 billion, the lowest since April, a sign that weakening demand in key markets such as China and the euro zone was starting to weigh. ...

Apart from slowing global demand, export growth is seen crimped by a strong dollar, which has so far this year strengthened by about 4 percent against the currencies of the country's main trading partners. ...

Consumer goods imports, however, were the highest on record, as were non-petroleum imports. Imports from China also hit an all-time high, leaving the politically sensitive trade gap at $35.6 billion, the highest on record. Imports from Canada were the highest since July 2008.

The dollar closed tonight at 85.19

The 52-week high was 86.746 on October 3. The 52-week low was 78.906 on May 8, just five months ago.

I don't find that big of a move in so short a space very encouraging yet. A stable price at a high level is better. Let's see what it can do.

Larry Kudlow's Kudlow Report On CNBC Ended Tonight

CNBC posted the farewells here on the day ending the television show's 5-year run, which wraps up 25 years with the network so far.

Kudlow remains affiliated with CNBC in a senior capacity and will appear daytimes on occasion instead of nightly at 7:00 PM.

Kudlow, 66 and an avid tennis player,  has had back problems requiring surgery in the last year, according to his own remarks on his 10:00 AM Saturday radio program on WABCradio.com, where you can download podcasts.

Ending his television program was reportedly his own choice and was made in the interest of slowing down.

Others have pointed to the show's very poor ratings as the reason for ending it, but the show has an enthusiastic and devoted, if not large, following.

The Reaganite supply-sider is known for his belief in free market capitalism as the best path to prosperity, as well as for strong dollar policy, growth oriented economic policies and a militarily strong America which welcomes and befriends others wishing to be free.

Kudlow credits his conversion to Roman Catholicism with helping him overcome a drug and alcohol addiction.