There is something deeply insane about all this.
Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines which can by-pass the Strait of Hormuz and replace a part of the lost export capacity. Production will have to be curtailed because there's nowhere to go with it. And everyone in the world will be poorer for it.
WASHINGTON—President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.
In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said. ...
Persian Gulf Activity: 1.7/day last week vs. 0.3/day prior week
Red Sea Activity: 11.1/day last week vs. 18.6/day prior week
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| JMIC Advisory Mar 29 |
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| JMIC Advisory Mar 22 |
The UAE is bypassing the Strait of Hormuz with 1.9 million barrels per day now coming out of Fujairah via its overland pipeline, and Saudi Arabia's overland pipeline west to Yanbu is moving about 4.5 million barrels per day out through the Red Sea, but that's not the 20 million barrels per day lost due to the war, and no LNG is moving at all.
Pakistan and Bangladesh get two thirds of their LNG from the Gulf, Taiwan gets one third of its LNG. Taiwan says its has eleven days' supply remaining. Many others are also severely affected by the cut-off of LNG from Qatar. About 20 LNG tankers are trapped in the Gulf, half the global fleet available for charter.
Meanwhile Iran has increased export of its oil from 1 million barrels per day in February to 2 million in March, 90% of which goes to China, and Iran is now charging tolls to vessels to exit the Gulf along its coast, which occurs only under Iranian escort.
Trump couldn't finish the Houthis off last year, and now they come back to bite.
Oil tankers filling at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port in the Red Sea because it was too dangerous in the Persian Gulf may soon have nowhere to fill.
All because Donald Trump has been mistaken twice in the Middle East.
The energy crisis will soon be a global energy catastrophe, leading to an inflation catastrophe, leading to an economic catastrophe. And maybe a world war.
Trump invokes emergency powers with $23 billion in Gulf arms sales as Iran war wages on: WSJ report
... For some of the deals, the American government invoked the emergency clause of U.S. arms control law, a mechanism that allows the executive branch to proceed without the standard 30-day congressional review period, according to the report.
... Iran is still believed to have a vast stockpile of mines, cruise missiles on trucks and hundreds of undamaged boats in hidden facilities with deeply dug tunnels along the coast and on islands, said Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iranian defenses at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“I think it will take weeks to reach a point where there can be safe operations in the strait,” he said. “Even then, a lot of the Iranian assets will survive.” ...
Houthi militants in Yemen, who are aligned with Iran, waged a two-month campaign last year with missiles, drones and unmanned boats against international shipping that parallels Iran’s closure of the strait. The U.S. struck more than 1,000 targets in Yemen, but never succeeded in halting Houthi attacks fully until the two sides declared a truce in May. ...
More.
They've lit the world on fire. They're madmen.
WATCH: Iranian gas, oil infrastructure at Iran’s South Pars and Asaluyeh hit in Israeli air strike
Facilities linked to Iran’s gas and oil industry in South Pars and Asaluyeh were targeted in an Israeli airstrike on Wednesday, a source confirmed to The Jerusalem Post.
The South Pars gas field is the world’s largest natural gas reserve and is jointly operated by Iran and Qatar.
An Israeli official told the Post that the attack was coordinated with the United States, adding that the target was Iran’s largest gas facility in Bushehr. ... Those Israeli strikes were coordinated with the United States, Axios reported a senior Israeli official as saying. ...
... This should have always been a team effort.
... The UKMTO said it had received 17 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman between Feb. 28, when the war began, and March 11. These include 13 attack reports and four reports of suspicious activity. ...
Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway
... Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers, told CNBC on Tuesday.
The firm monitors vessel movements with satellite imagery, allowing it to capture vessels that would otherwise go undetected if their tracking systems are switched off. Many vessels have “gone dark” after Tehran threatened to attack any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway. ...
Over the years, China has built up large crude stockpiles, accumulating an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of inventory as of January, which could fulfill demand for 3 to 4 months, according to Atlantic Council. ...
U.S. forces sink 16 Iranian minelayers as reports say Tehran is mining the Strait of Hormuz
... A CNN report Tuesday said that Iran had started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, albeit not extensively. Sources that CNN spoke to said only a “few dozen” had been laid in recent days.
The report also said that Iran still retains more than 80% of its small boats and minelayers, and could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.
Located between Oman and Iran, the strait saw roughly 13 million barrels of crude per day passing through it in 2025, representing about 31% of all seaborne crude flows, according to energy consulting firm Kpler. ...
CBS News, which reported that Iran “may be getting ready” to deploy naval mines, said the country was using smaller crafts that can carry two to three mines each to lay them in the strait. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines, the report said. ...
... the U.S. had decommissioned four Avenger-class minesweepers that were stationed in Bahrain in late 2025.
The replacement vessels for the Avenger-class, the Independence-class littoral combat ships, have “struggled to meet the requirements of operational mine countermeasures missions,” according to global naval publication Naval News.
Win or lose, Donald Trump has begun the last war the United States is ever likely to fight in the Middle East. ...
That's what we thought in 1991 about the victorious George H. W. Bush. And then somehow we lost our minds and elected blow-job Bill with his Sunday-go-to-meeting Bible under his arm, big enough to choke a mule.
The state of mind – and the state of the world – that made possible the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, has passed, never to return. ...
There wasn't a single state of mind from 1991 to 2003.
We didn't choose 9/11. It chose us and changed our minds. And the lunatics in Tehran are crazier and far more dangerous than Osama ever was.
Hell, we didn't even choose the Gulf War. Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, and set it on fire as it withdrew in January 1991.
We didn't choose this Iran War, either. Iran chose it for us when its proxies invaded our ally Israel in October 2023.
The state of mind and the state of the world . . . hasn't changed at all, except that Trump's a little slow on the uptake.
The passions that involve us in foreign conflicts in the future will be those of a younger cohort. ...
Yes, it isn't just about a state of mind, is it? Things happen which we can't control. You can't predict "no more wars" anywhere, even though you can pretend for a long time, for example from the summer of 1939 to late 1941, and then something forces your hand.
... if the Iran war goes badly – as badly as the Iraq War did for Bush – Trump’s new style of interventionism will be repudiated by voters as thoroughly as Trump’s own election repudiated the neoconservatives.
Bush 41 was popular because he won the Gulf War and suddenly wasn't because of the economy. And Bush 43 was re-elected convincingly in 2004, hello. If America didn't support his Iraq War, it had a funny way of showing it. There is no comparison with Trump.
Trump's economy already sucks and unsurprisingly right out of the box polling indicates Americans are against his attack on Iran. We're blowing up $1 billion a day over there and can't afford a lousy hamburger at home. We don't have to wait for Iran to go badly for the voters to repudiate Trump.
The only thing Dan is probably right about is this, unfortunately:
. . . what comes next will be an even more radical phase in domestic politics. ...
Here.
Bloomberg reports:
Ship Signal Jamming in Persian Gulf Worsens as Conflict Widens
Navigation signals from more than 900 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf went awry over the weekend, creating confusion in the shipping chokepoint as the fighting between Iran and Israel intensified. ... The Joint Maritime Information Center, an international naval task force monitoring the area, warned on Sunday that there are instances of “extreme jamming” of signals from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. ...
Update:
Two oil tankers collided and caught fire on Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz, where electronic interference has surged during conflict between Iran and Israel, but there were no injuries to crew or spillage reported.
With Iran and Israel firing missiles at each other since Friday, interference has disrupted navigation systems near the vital sea route between Iran and Oman which handles about a fifth of the world's oil. ...
