Every major bank passes stress test from the US Federal Reserve

507 banks failed in the United States 2008-2014 inclusive, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund nearly $90 billion. Many millions of homes went into completed foreclosure.

 

Big banks all pass the Federal Reserve’s less vigorous stress tests

 

... All 22 banks tested this year would have remained solvent and above the minimum thresholds to continue to operate, the Fed said, despite absorbing roughly $550 billion in theoretical losses. ...

 

Under this year’s hypothetical scenario, a major global recession would have caused a 30% decline in commercial real estate prices and a 33% decline in housing prices. The unemployment rate would rise to 10% and stock prices would fall 50%. In 2024, the hypothetical scenario was a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices, a 55% decline in stock prices and a 36% decline in housing prices. ...      

 

The 2024 benchmarks are a mixture.

 

Commercial real estate prices year over year fell more than 11% in 4Q2008, and more than 30% in 4Q2009. Planning for a future 40% decline seems appropriate.

 

The 2007 shock to the median price of houses sold was only 19% 1Q2007-1Q2009, with prices not recovering until 1Q2013. But since the median price of houses sold has jumped by about 31% just since 2020, planning for a future 36% decline is more than appropriate.

 

Unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009. The civilian employment level contracted by almost 7 million 2007-2010 on an average basis, and did not recover until 2014, seven long years later. Pandemic unemployment peaked at 14.8% in April 2020. We got as high as 10.8% in November and December 1982. Great Depression unemployment peaked at 25.59% in May 1933. This one is a crap-shoot. 

 

The average price of the S&P 500 fell 50.8% between October 2007 and March 2009, but in 2007 the S&P 500 was valued about 26% above the long term mean, not 130% as in 2024.

 

That's the datum that worries me. Just to get to its historical median value of 81, the S&P 500 today would have to fall 61%, to about 2425.

 

Imagine the howls. 

 

 

 

  

 

WeWork, which once pretended to be worth $47 billion, files for bankruptcy protection

 From the story here:

WeWork has struggled in a commercial real estate market that has been rocked by the rising cost of borrowing money, as well as a shifting dynamic for millions of office workers now checking into their offices remotely.

 

Right On Schedule, Obama's Pals In FIRE Start To Snap Up Your American Dream

Having unleashed all that pent up capital in the American dream of home equity, skimmed it, and tag-teamed it, leaving you underwater and broke, Obama's pals in the financial, insurance and real estate sectors from Wall Street are starting to swoop in and gobble up your broken dreams.

Stephen Gandel reports for Fortune, here:

In the past six months or so, a number of investment firms, hedge funds, private equity partnerships and real estate investors have turned into voracious buyers of single-family homes. And not just any homes, but foreclosures. Investment banks, who also want in on the action, are lining up financing options to keep the purchases going.

Take for instance private equity mega-firm Blackstone Group (BX). ... Blackstone now owns 2,000 single-family homes. At $300 million, that might be small compared to Blackstone's overall real estate portfolio of about $50 billion. But it's one of the biggest piles of homes ever intentionally put together (banks and Fannie and Freddie are sitting on many more foreclosed homes, but that's a different story) by an institutional investor, and it's likely not the largest portfolio out there these days. ...

[L]andlords have always tended to be mom-and-pop outfits often not owning more than a few dozen units confined to one area. Large Real Estate Investment Trusts and private equity funds generally focused on apartment buildings and commercial real estate, like malls and office buildings. That appears to be changing.

Robert Fitch tried to tell everyone that this is what was coming under Obama, because it's what Obama helped make happen on the near south side of Chicago's Loop as a state senator. Obama helped throw out all the poor black people there, nearly 50,000 of them, so his friends could buy up the land, develop it, and make lots of money off it. They ended up helping finance him to the US Senate and The White House.

Looks like they might be at it again.

I first read about it here.

FDIC Rewards Banks Which Themselves Violate Regulatory Guidelines

Richard Suttmeier noted here on February 22 that three banks which acquired the assets of failed banks on Friday, February 18, 2011, are themselves overexposed to construction and development loans or commercial real estate loans, or both:

Three of the banks that acquired the assets of Friday’s failed banks were also in violation of the regulatory guidelines for exposures of risk-based capital to construction and development loans and to commercial real estate loans. SCBT National Association (SCBT) has risk ratios of 145% for C and D loans and 423.7% for CRE loans that are 89.3% funded. Bank of Marin (BMRC) has a risk ratio of 67.4% for C and D loans, which is fine, but has a 485.2% exposure for CRE loans with a loan pipeline that’s 78.7% funded. First California Bank (FCAL) has a risk ratio of 41.5% for C and D loans, which is fine, but has a 358.2% exposure to CRE loans with a loan pipeline of 86.9%. ValuEngine rates each of these banks a Hold. The FDIC policy of rewarding banks with overexposures to real estate loans is deciding which banks fail and which banks survive, which is wrong.

State capitalism is the official economic policy of the American Fascist Police State.

Tom Petruno on the Zombie Bears

Not once in this more or less even-handed discussion does the massive rot infecting bank balance sheets because of declining housing and commercial real estate prices get mentioned.

You'd never know that half of the nearly 8000 banks in this country have serious problems, nor that the savings of millions of Americans have disappeared because of the bursting of the housing bubble.

But hey, we can live with rot, and maybe even recover, right? Cancer patients do it all the time. Except for the ones that die.

Against the sickening round of prolonged chemotherapy and radiation currently being applied through extend and pretend and stimulative liquidity, the bears instead advocate surgery:

The zombie bears are certain that the worst lies ahead, and that consumers and investors should prepare accordingly — although how exactly to prepare is a matter of debate.

"We need a deleveraging, deflationary depression, and in three to five years we're going to have a much better economy," said Michael Pento, senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital in New York.

"We just have to go through hell in the meantime."

Bank Failure Update: FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund Balance is Minus $19.8 Billion

The insolvent banks are being bailed out by an insolvent FDIC.

From Richard Suttmeier for Minyanville, here:

The FDIC Deposit Insurance fund has now been drained by $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter to date, which brings the DIF Deficit to an estimated $19.8 billion. The FDIC has already burned through the assessments for 2010. The assessments for 2011 and 2012 have been pre-paid at $15.33 billion per year. ...

The three failed banks last Friday had extreme overexposures to C&D and CRE loans. C&D exposures for the three overexposed were between 143.7% and 654.7% versus the 100% regulatory guideline. The CRE exposures were between 896% and 1397% versus the 300% of risk-based capital regulatory guideline. The CRE loan pipelines were between 96% and 99% funded versus a healthy pipeline of 60%.

FDIC In The Red . . . 140 Failed Banks Year to Date . . . $30 Billion Down, $100 Billion To Go

The Associated Press is reporting:

The 140 bank failures are the most in a year since 1992 at the height of the savings-and-loan crisis. They have cost the government-backed deposit insurance fund - which has fallen into the red - more than $30 billion so far this year. The failures compare with 25 last year and three in 2007.

The FDIC expects the cost of bank failures to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years. ...

If the economic recovery falters, defaults on the high-risk loans could spike. Nearly $500 billion in commercial real estate loans are expected to come due annually over the next few years.

Go here for the rest of the story.

"The Banks Must Be Restrained"

Total bank failures year to date reached 106 yesterday, bringing the total cost to the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund this year to about $25 billion, with only about $100 billion to go, according to the FDIC's own projections.

The FDIC likes to take over banks on Friday afternoons, believing you won't notice it as readily with the weekend intervening before the next regular day of business. They wouldn't want you to panic, you know. So people who watch this stuff carefully like to call the last day of the work week "Bank Failure Friday." Yesterday, I noticed that the 106th bank to fail this year was in Itasca, Illinois, near where I used to live, and it reminded me of these words posted by Mish (who lives in Illinois) in July of 2008:

23. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said the FDIC is looking for ways to shore up its depleted deposit fund, including charging higher premiums on riskier brokered deposits.

24. There is roughly $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. $2.60 Trillion of that is uninsured. There is only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. Indymac will eat up roughly $8 billion of that.

25. Of the $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cash on hand at banks is a mere $273.7 Billion. Where is the rest of the loot? The answer is in off balance sheet SIVs, imploding commercial real estate deals, Alt-A liar loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, toggle bonds where debt is amazingly paid back with more debt, and all sorts of other silly (and arguably fraudulent) financial wizardry schemes that have bank and brokerage firms leveraged at 30-1 or more. Those loans cannot be paid back.

What cannot be paid back will be defaulted on. If you did not know it before, you do now. The entire US banking system is insolvent.

Since those words were penned, the FDIC is planning to charge premiums several years forward to banks to the tune of $45 billion, its deposit fund is down to about $10 billion, and its troubled bank list has ballooned to over 400 banks, with nearly 300 in serious trouble. The FDIC expects to need at least another $100 billion for bailouts through 2013. Let's see, $10 billion on hand plus $45 billion charged forward = $55 billion. Only $45 billion short! Hmm. And you think we can afford to federalize health care?!

When you go down to the bank to ask for a loan to buy a house, you typically get leverage of only 5 to 1 (20% down), because nobody's got your back but you. So why does the bank get leverage to the tune of 25 to 1 (4% down)? Because of the taxpayer guarantee, that's why. And "rules" which let them, written by politicians on the take. It's high time we ended all that or this country will surely go bankrupt. Consider Citigroup.

It alone has $800 billion in "assets" off the books, and looks to be in serious trouble: suddenly this week it ended its gasoline credit card program and dramatically hiked interest rates on its other cards. Forget about the FDIC covering Citigroup with forward charged premiums to its member banks if it goes under. There isn't enough money there. The taxpayer will be on the hook. Again. Are you mad as hell yet? Are you going to take it anymore? Vote the bums out.

No wonder Jesse keeps saying, "The banks must be restrained . . . before there can be any sustained recovery."