When relying on technology in Flash Flood Alley lets you down

 Girls camp grieves loss of 27 campers and counselors in Texas floods that killed nearly 90 people

... Operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, said they lost 27 campers and counselors, confirming their worst fears after a wall of water slammed into cabins built along the edge of the Guadalupe River. ...

... On Thursday the National Weather Service advised of potential flooding and then sent out a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday before issuing flash flood emergencies — a rare step that alerts the public to imminent danger.

Authorities and elected officials have said they did not expect such an intense downpour, the equivalent of months of rain.

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said one of the challenges is that many camps are in places with poor cellphone service. ...

Why did the Guadalupe River flood so fast? What to know about Texas' 'Flash Flood Alley'

... The Guadalupe River and its surrounding areas in Texas Hill Country have historically been prone to flash flooding, earning the nickname "Flash Flood Alley." This area is particularly hazardous, as river levels increased rapidly at the end of last week and over the weekend. ...

 

Permitting the building of cabins along a river in a dangerous flood plain was just tempting fate.

They do things differently in Texas. 

 

If it hasn't been jet fuel since 2017, it won't be now

Real GDP has been 2.43% compound annual 1Q2017 through 1Q2025. And that includes all the obscene pandemic spending.

This isn't even close to the 2.8% Trump cheerleaders are promising, let alone the 3% The Speaker touts.

 

Speaker Johnson: We've Given Everybody A Tax Cut, That Will Be Jet Fuel For The Economy

 

There's no new tax cut. The Trump tax reform from his first term simply continues. There's no injection of new money on a permanent basis involving tax bracket changes, nothing substantively different for the average taxpayer.

 

There are short-term gimmicks for seniors, earners of tip income, earners of overtime pay, car-buyers, etc., but most of these are scattershot and most importantly, most of them expire in 2028.

 

The incremental adjustments which occur naturally to standard deduction amounts would occur anyway. 

More above average income filers will be able to itemize than previously, but only until 2030.

 

 

 

U. S. House GOP majority declines to 219-212 as Mark Green of TN-7 resigns, as expected

 Story.

Democrats are down three seats temporarily due to deaths. 

Performance of some older Vanguard funds since inception, through June 30, 2025

In chronological order:

 

Wellington Fund, VWELX, inception July 1, 1929: 8.35%

Windsor Fund, VWNDX, inception October 23, 1958: 11.24%

U. S. Growth Fund, VWUSX, inception January 6, 1959: 11.04%

Explorer Fund, VEXPX, inception December 11, 1967: 9.34%

Wellesley Income Fund, VWINX, inception July 1, 1970: 9.19%

Long Term Investment Grade Fund, VWESX, inception July 9, 1973: 7.30% 

500 Index Fund, VFINX, inception August 31, 1976: 11.50%

Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund, VWLTX, inception September 1, 1977: 5.26% 

High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund, VWAHX, inception December 27, 1978: 5.87% 

High-Yield Corporate Fund, VWEHX, inception December 27, 1978: 7.8%

GNMA Fund, VFIIX, inception June 27, 1980: 6.18% 

International Growth Fund, VWIGX, inception September 30, 1981: 10.38%

Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund, VFSTX, inception October 29, 1982: 5.43%

International Value Fund, VTRIX, inception May 16, 1983: 8.36%

Global Capital Cycles Fund, VGPMX, inception May 23, 1984/September 26, 2018: 5.15% 

Energy Fund, VGENX, inception May 23, 1984: 9.53% 

Health Care Fund, VGHCX, inception May 23, 1984: 14.57%

PRIMECAP Fund, VPMCX, inception November 1, 1984: 13.53%

Star Fund, VGSTX, inception March 29, 1985: 9.23%

Windsor II Fund, VWNFX, inception June 24, 1985: 10.91%

Long-Term Treasury Fund, VUSTX, inception May 19, 1986: 5.82% 

Growth and Income Fund, VQNPX, inception December 10, 1986: 10.93% 

Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBMFX, inception December 11, 1986: 5.03%

Extended Market Index Fund, VEXMX, inception December 21, 1987: 10.53%

Equity Income Fund, VEIPX, inception March 21, 1988: 10.32% 

Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX, inception April 27, 1992: 10.47%

Dividend Growth Fund, VDIGX, inception May 15, 1992: 9.01%

Growth Index Fund, VIGRX, inception November 2, 1992: 11.31% 

 

Vanguard performance: Total bond and total stock market indices since inception

 VBMFX, inception 12/11/1986: 5.03% through 6/30/25

VTSMX, inception 4/27/1992: 10.47% through 6/30/25 

SPX since August 2000 continues to underperform the pre-Reagan era by almost 20% in real terms, the Reagan bull market era by almost 68%

SPX 8/2000-5/2025: 7.62% per annum nominal, 4.95% per annum real (inflation rate 2.54% per annum)

SPX 1/1871-7/1982: 8.15% per annum nominal, 6.18% per annum real (inflation 1.86%)

SPX 7/1982-8/2000: 18.99% per annum nominal, 15.28% per annum real (inflation 3.22%) 

 

We'll get the June 2025 Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday July 15th. The previous read was 2.4% yoy overall, and 2.8% yoy for the core.  

SPX vs. gold since 1913

 

Gold 1913-2025 ($20.67-$3500.05 peak on April 22, 2025): 4.689% compound annual growth rate, nominal.

The S&P 500 did better than that in nominal terms.  SPX 4/1913-4/2025 (8.79-5369.50, monthly average prices): 5.895% compound annual growth rate, which does not include dividends reinvested; the nominal per annum plus dividends reinvested produced 10.14% total nominal per annum.

In real terms the $20.67 price of gold in April 1913 is only $676.62 in April 2025, or 3.164% CAGR inflation over the period. So in real terms gold is up just 1.478% per annum over the period (from $676.62 to $3500.05). 

Again in real terms SPX is up more, 2.65% per annum without dividends reinvested over the period, and even more with dividends reinvested, 6.76% per annum.

Spot gold on July 4th was lower than in April, at $3329.67. 

SPX made a new high for the Fourth of July.

 

 

US Treasury yields were down modestly in June 2025 on an average basis

Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.

 

Billionaire becomes homeless

 Welcome to the club, bub.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says he’s ‘politically homeless’ in July 4 post bashing Democrats

 

America to Ukraine: Freedom for me, but not for thee

Putin attacks Kyiv after call with Trump:

 

The GOP House bowed down and worshipped before the GOP Senate and voted for its reconciliation bill lock, stock, and barrel today at 2:30pm, including all the clowns of the House Freedom Caucus

The roll call vote is here.

The $36 trillion national debt will soar.

The interest payments on that debt were $639 billion fiscal year to date at the end of May, and they will soar, too.

The so-called fiscal conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus could have stopped this monstrosity, but they all backed down save for Massie and Fitzpatrick, and they aren't even members.

The entire House Freedom Caucus voted for it. 

 

 

Hakeem Jeffries has finished his speech in the US House, which took 8 hours and 44 minutes, a new record

 

You can't win: State and local government employment is up 175k since January, which more than offsets federal employment down 69k

 The swamp is everywhere lol.

down 69k

up 119k

up 56k

Pressure on the House GOP reconciliation bill holdouts got them all, save one, to flip at 03:23 this morning, finally allowing the bill to come to the floor for debate

Thomas Massie was originally for bringing the bill to the floor for debate, then switched to against that after Trump got testy with him lol, and then switched back to for again after getting Trump to stop criticizing him, at least temporarily.

He'll still vote against this damn thing, and will probably be the only one. 

The debate phase started at 03:30 and is still ongoing.

Hakeem Jeffries is trying to outdo Kevin McCarthy with a marathon floor speech in opposition longer than eight hours and thirty-two minutes. 

In education news, the once great Indiana University has turned its back on Western civilization and purged its traditional degree programs because the children of the barbarians don't enroll in them anymore

 A victory for the mouth breather, Marco Rubio, fellow servant of Mammon.

 

 

Donald Trump has managed to fire a measly 69,000 federal employees since January, state government employees up 56,000 lol

Looks like a lot of federal workers found new jobs lol. 

We had a record average number who were eating but not working in the United States in 1H2025, not seasonally adjusted: 102.65 million

 The seasonally adjusted figure is also a record high: 102.50 million in 1H2025.

 

The Rush Limbaugh/Donald Trump dumb ass unemployment rate was 37.58% in the first half of 2025

 

Trump's own government says he has 103.2 million eating but not working in June 2025

I don't make the rules.

Rush Limbaugh makes the rules.

 

Full time employment in June 2025 rises to 49.83%, first half of 2025 falls to 49.30%, as bad as 2021 or 2017

 

Full time was 49.83% of civilian population in June 2025

Full time was 49.30% of civilian population in 1H2025

CNBC also is wondering where the fuel comes from for future GDP under the Trump tax cuts since they are already not cutting it lol

 

House GOP can't agree to proceed to debating Senate reconciliation bill, vote stands at 206 Yea, 216 Nay (4 GOP against), with 10 GOP not voting

Yikes. 

Even if all not voting GOP vote Yea, there's a tie. Not good enough.

And moments ago Thomas Massie changed his Yea to Nay lol. 

 Trump’s megabill is in real trouble; House GOP leaders need to flip a ‘no’ vote to a yes

 

 

S&P 500 closes at another new high today

 

The Pentagon has admitted that Iran's nuclear program has been set back by at most two years

 

Deane Waldman argues Medicaid cuts of 20 million new Biden enrollees who don't belong there would save lives by shortening wait times for care which have swelled to 132 days

 Medicaid cuts could save thousands of lives  

... Reduced enrollment and cuts to nonclinical spending could shorten wait times, make care more accessible, and reduce death-by-queue. No one in the media has reported this potential benefit from cuts to Medicaid. ... 

Don Bacon: Please stop hating me

 

Jobs going bye-bye in the news

 

Microsoft laying off about 9,000 employees in latest round of cuts

 

The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, ADP says

Housing in a Fed stress test scenario

The median price of houses sold in the United States in March 1963 was $17,800.

Adjusted for inflation to March 2025, that would be $186,600.

But in fact the median price of houses sold was $416,900, 123% higher.

A 36% shock to that as contemplated by the Fed's recent bank stress tests could bring the median price of houses sold down to $266,800, dialing the clock back to 2013, which is still 43% higher than what the long term price would be merely adjusted for inflation.

A large number of homeowners who have purchased homes from 2020 when prices skyrocketed by 31% could be instantly underwater in this scenario. There have been 4.73 million new large bank consumer mortgage originations since 2Q2020.

Add losing a job and boom, you could have another foreclosure crisis all over again.

The 2007 shock to the median price of houses sold was only 19% 1Q2007-1Q2009, with prices not recovering until 1Q2013, but many millions of foreclosures were completed over the period.

A mitigating factor for homeowners generally today is owners' equity in real estate, which was almost 62% in 2005, but in 2025 is almost 72%, ten points higher. We haven't seen a level like that since 1960. 

Owners' equity had crashed by a quarter to 46% by 1Q2012, the lowest on record in the post-war.

Every major bank passes stress test from the US Federal Reserve

507 banks failed in the United States 2008-2014 inclusive, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund nearly $90 billion. Many millions of homes went into completed foreclosure.

 

Big banks all pass the Federal Reserve’s less vigorous stress tests

 

... All 22 banks tested this year would have remained solvent and above the minimum thresholds to continue to operate, the Fed said, despite absorbing roughly $550 billion in theoretical losses. ...

 

Under this year’s hypothetical scenario, a major global recession would have caused a 30% decline in commercial real estate prices and a 33% decline in housing prices. The unemployment rate would rise to 10% and stock prices would fall 50%. In 2024, the hypothetical scenario was a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices, a 55% decline in stock prices and a 36% decline in housing prices. ...      

 

The 2024 benchmarks are a mixture.

 

Commercial real estate prices year over year fell more than 11% in 4Q2008, and more than 30% in 4Q2009. Planning for a future 40% decline seems appropriate.

 

The 2007 shock to the median price of houses sold was only 19% 1Q2007-1Q2009, with prices not recovering until 1Q2013. But since the median price of houses sold has jumped by about 31% just since 2020, planning for a future 36% decline is more than appropriate.

 

Unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009. The civilian employment level contracted by almost 7 million 2007-2010 on an average basis, and did not recover until 2014, seven long years later. Pandemic unemployment peaked at 14.8% in April 2020. We got as high as 10.8% in November and December 1982. Great Depression unemployment peaked at 25.59% in May 1933. This one is a crap-shoot. 

 

The average price of the S&P 500 fell 50.8% between October 2007 and March 2009, but in 2007 the S&P 500 was valued about 26% above the long term mean, not 130% as in 2024.

 

That's the datum that worries me. Just to get to its historical median value of 81, the S&P 500 today would have to fall 61%, to about 2425.

 

Imagine the howls. 

 

 

 

  

 

Ukraine suffered its largest attack yet from Russia, Trump's response is to cut weapon shipments while dithering yet another two weeks on his Putin ultimatum

Trump is a detestable, amoral fiend.

Pentagon halts weapons shipment to Ukraine amid concerns over U.S. stockpile

... The weapons being delayed include dozens of Patriot interceptors that can defend against incoming Russian missiles, thousands of 155 mm high explosive Howitzer munitions, more than 100 Hellfire missiles, more than 250 precision-guided missile systems known as GMLRS and dozens each of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, AIM air-to-air missiles and grenade launchers, the two defense officials, two congressional officials and two sources with knowledge of the decision said. ... 

Ukraine has repeatedly appealed for additional U.S. and European air defense weaponry as Russia has stepped up its air raids in recent months. Over the weekend, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Russia had launched the largest aerial attack on the country since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022, firing 60 missiles and 477 drones. ...

The munitions were approved as part of Presidential Drawdown Authority and Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative packages during the Biden administration, the defense officials and two sources with knowledge of the decision said. Some of the shipments are already in the region but have been stopped before being turned over to Ukraine, according to a defense official and two sources with knowledge of the decision. ...

 

 

Senate reconciliation bill gives chipmakers like TSMC more tax credits while cutting Medicaid

 

Chipmakers get larger tax credits in Trump’s latest ‘big beautiful bill’ 

 

... Under the bill, passed by the Senate Tuesday, tax credits for those semiconductor firms would rise to 35% from 25%. That’s more than the 30% increase that had made it into a draft version of the bill. ... 

The new provisions expand on tax incentives under the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which provided grants of $39 billion and loans of $75 billion for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing projects. ...

 

Medicaid cuts in Trump’s megabill will leave millions uninsured, threaten rural hospitals

... Recent changes to the bill would cut roughly $1.1 trillion in health-care spending over the next decade, according to new estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. 

More than $1 trillion of those cuts would come from Medicaid, a joint federal and state health insurance program for disabled and low-income Americans, according to the CBO. The funding cuts go beyond insurance coverage: The loss of that funding could gut many rural hospitals that disproportionately rely on federal spending.

The CBO estimates that the current version of the bill would result in 11.8 million people losing health insurance by 2034, with the majority of those people losing Medicaid coverage. ...

Approximately 72 million Americans are currently enrolled in Medicaid, about one-fifth of the total U.S. population, according to government data. Medicaid is the primary payer for the majority of nursing home residents, and pays for around 40% of all births. ...

What fools these people are! What fools they think we must be!

 

Trump's Tax Cuts Spurred Growth. BBB Will Do It Again

Hassett & Miran, USA Today

 

TRUMP'S TAX CUTS SPURRED NOTHING. 

 

AND NOTHING NEW HAS BEEN CUT NOW, JUST EXTENDED.

 

THERE IS NO NEW FUEL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH. 

 

Real GDP since 1Q2017 has grown at a compound annual rate of 2.43%, 23% BELOW the post-war rate of 3.17% from 1Q1947.

 

The Trump tax cuts have been a failure. 

The US Senate's biggest phony, Republican Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, boasted he had enough votes to stop Trump's bill, but voted for it all three times in the end

 

 

The roll call votes are here, here, and here.

June 4, 2025, here:

Republican Sen. Ron Johnson on Wednesday blasted President Donald Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” as “immoral” and “grotesque,” and reiterated that he will vote against it unless his GOP colleagues make major changes.

“This is immoral, what us old farts doing to our young people,” Johnson said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” after sounding alarms that the massive tax-and-spending-cut bill would add trillions of dollars to national deficits.

“This is grotesque, what we’re doing,” Johnson said. “We need to own up to that. This is our moment.”

“I can’t accept the scenario, I can’t accept it, so I won’t vote for it, unless we are serious about fixing it,” he continued.

Johnson has been among the Senate’s loudest GOP critics of the budget bill that narrowly passed the House last month.

Johnson and other fiscal hawks have taken aim over its effect on the nation’s debt. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated later Wednesday that the bill would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

Johnson has proposed splitting the bill into two parts, though Trump insists on passing his agenda in a single package.

“The president and Senate leadership has to understand that we’re serious now,” Johnson said of himself and the handful of other GOP senators whose opposition to the bill could imperil its chances.

“They all say, ‘Oh, we can pressure these guys.’ No, you can’t.”

Republicans hold a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate, so they can only afford to lose a handful of votes to get the bill passed in a party-line vote.

“Let’s discuss the numbers, and let’s focus on our children and grandchildren, whose futures are being mortgaged, their prospects are being diminished by what we are doing to them,” Johnson said.

Johnson’s comments came one day after Elon Musk ripped into the spending bill, calling it a “disgusting abomination” that will lead to exploding deficits. The White House brushed aside Musk’s comments.

Johnson said Musk’s criticisms bolster the case against the bill.

“He’s in the inside, he showed … President Trump how to do this, you know, contract by contract, line by line,” Johnson said of Musk. “We have to do that.”

Johnson said his campaign against the bill in its current form is not a “long shot,” because he thinks there are “enough” Republican senators who will vote against the bill.

“We want to see [Trump] succeed, but again, my loyalty is to our kids and grandkids,” he said.

“So there’s enough of us who have that attitude that very respectfully we just have say, ’Mr. President, I’m sorry, ‘one, big, beautiful bill’ was not the best idea,” he added.

 

GOP coward Senator Lisa Murkowski today hopes the US House will fix the reconciliation bill she just voted for, just like GOP coward Rep. Chip Roy hoped in May the US Senate would fix the reconciliation bill he just voted for

 You can't make this up!

Cowards hope someone else will do what must be done.

Heroes do it themselves.

Vote Nay for once!

 

 

The dark side had to come to the rescue of Trump's reconciliation bill in the U.S. Senate THREE TIMES

 

 Vance breaks 50-50 tie as Senate passes GOP megabill after voting around the clock   

Vice President Vance cast the tie-breaking vote as Senate Republicans on Tuesday delivered a huge legislative victory for President Trump by passing his One Big, Beautiful Bill Act after hours of tense negotiations that lasted through the night. ... 

the three ties which J. D. Vance had to break

 

 

Trump is threatening to throttle Elon Musk's opposition to the bill in the US Senate, which still hasn't been voted on after 24 hours of debate, by deporting him

 

The current policy baseline helps Republicans hide the fact that they are spending like drunken sailors

 

 

Phony Republican current policy baseline says Trump tax cuts will cost $0 going forward, Congressional Budget Office says $3.5 trillion

 Graham claims sole authority to decide if GOP megabill complies with budget laws

... Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), the ranking member of the Budget Committee, immediately appealed the ruling of the chair.

He pointed to a letter he received from Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel asserting that the Finance portion of the bill would increase federal deficit by $3.5 trillion between 2025 and 2034 and increase deficits beyond the 10-year budget window, which ends in 2034.

“The ability of the chair to create a phony baseline has never been used in reconciliation, not ever,” Merkley argued.

“This breaks a 51-year tradition of the Senate for honest numbers,” he declared.

Merkley’s appeal of the chair’s ruling empowering Graham failed by a party-line vote. Senators rejected it by a vote of 53 to 47. ...

The IAEA's Grossi says neither Israel nor the United States has obliterated Iran's capacity to make war

 

Every Republican in the U.S. Senate drank the koolaid this morning and voted for the current policy baseline, including Thom Tillis, Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, you name 'em, they voted for it

I'm speechless.

The roll call vote is here. 

Using their magic eraser, the Trump tax cuts will cost $0 going forward. 

 

Words have a meaning, and Real Clear Politics wants you to think Donald Trump intimidated Senator Thom Tillis to disappear

NC GOP Senator Tillis Announces Resignation After Clash With Trump

Fox News is almost as bad:

 Thom Tillis announces retirement from Senate after clash with Trump 

The truth: ... The North Carolina Republican announced on Sunday that he would not seek reelection in the 2026 cycle. ...

Thom is still there, hopefully to vote Nay again today on Trump's big, ugly charade of a reconciliation bill, and will be there for eighteen more months, and there's not a damn thing Trump can do about it.

He will be a potent second potential Nay vote in the US Senate on everything with Rand Paul. 

 

Looks like there's a new chart at FRED which tracks Trump's goods-trade deficits lol, $96.5 billion in May

 

Republicans are doing an end-run around the Senate parliamentarian to make novel use of the current policy baseline instead of current law, asserting a Democrat precedent from 2022

 Senate GOP declines to meet with parliamentarian on whether Trump tax cuts add to deficit

... Republicans, however, say that the parliamentarian doesn’t have a role in judging how much the tax portion of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would add to the deficit within the bill’s 10-year budget window or whether it would add to deficits beyond 2034.

They argue that Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has authority under Section 312 of the Congressional Budget Act “to determine baseline numbers of spending and revenue.”

Ryan Wrasse, a spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), pointed to a Budget Committee report published when Democrats were in the majority in 2022 stating that the Budget Committee, through its chair, makes the call on questions of numbers, not the parliamentarian.

Graham received a letter from Swagel [CBO Director] on Saturday stating that the Finance Committee’s tax text does not exceed its reconciliation instructions or add to deficits after 2034 when scored on the “current-policy” baseline that Graham wants the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and CBO to use.

Taylor Reidy, a spokesperson for the Budget panel, asserted on the social platform X that “there is no need to have a parliamentarian meeting with respect to current policy baseline because Section 312 of the Congressional Budget Act gives Sen. Graham — as Chairman of the Budget Committee — the authority to set the baseline.” ...

All you really need to know is that whatever these yokels end up passing, the country will be $50-$60 trillion in debt ten years from now because they spend too much and tax too little.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina will not run again in 2026 after voting to stop Trump's reconciliation bill

 Tillis won’t run for reelection in North Carolina 

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) on Sunday announced he will not seek reelection to the Senate next year, firing a political shock wave into the midterm cycle after he said he would oppose President Trump’s mammoth tax package. ... 

 

Good morning to all, except to those who cannot spell yesses and noes

 Alexander Bolton at The Hill here:

... The vote to proceed to the sprawling budget reconciliation package remained open on the Senate floor for more than three and a half hours, stuck for a long time at 47 yes’s and 50 no’s. ...

 

 

 

 

Trump & Co. played up Fordow from the beginning because they knew they couldn't do anything about Isfahan

 US did not use bunker-buster bombs on one of Iran’s nuclear sites, top general tells lawmakers, citing depth of the target 

... The comment by Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, which was described by three people who heard his remarks and a fourth who was briefed on them, is the first known explanation given for why the US military did not use the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb against the Isfahan site in central Iran. US officials believe Isfahan’s underground structures house nearly 60% of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, which Iran would need in order to ever produce a nuclear weapon. ... Isfahan was only struck by Tomahawk missiles launched from a US submarine. ... 

An early assessment produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency in the day after the US strikes said the attack did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program, including its enriched uranium, and likely only set the program back by months, CNN has reported. It also said Iran may have moved some of the enriched uranium out of the sites before they were attacked. ...

Caine and Hegseth on Thursday said the military operation against Fordow went exactly as planned but did not mention the impacts to Isfahan and Natanz. 

The emphasis on Fordow from the beginning was intentional, because they knew they couldn't do anything about Isfahan.

You know, like "Look over there! A deer!"

 

 

 

 

Republican Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin folds like a house of cards, switches his Nay vote to Yea to advance reconciliation bill to the Senate floor for debate

 Trump megabill narrowly advances in Senate despite two GOP defections

Senate Republicans on Saturday narrowly voted to advance a sprawling 1,000-page bill to enact President Trump’s agenda, despite the opposition of two GOP lawmakers.

The vote was 51-49.

Two Republicans voted against advancing the package: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who opposes a provision to raise the debt limit by $5 trillion and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who says the legislation would cost his state $38.9 trillion in federal Medicaid funding.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) changed his “no” vote to “aye,” and holdout Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) also voted yes to advance the bill. 

The bill had suffered several significant setbacks in the days and hours before coming to the floor, at times appearing to be on shaky ground.

The vote itself was also full of drama. ...

Flashback to May 25 when Johnson said he had enough votes in the Senate to stop the bill:

GOP senator says resistance to Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' could stop it in the Senate

President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson are hopeful for minimal modifications in the Senate to the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" passed by the House last week, but one Republican senator said there's enough resistance to halt the bill unless there are significant changes.

"The first goal of our budget reconciliation process should be to reduce the deficit. This actually increases," Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., told CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday, urging deeper spending cuts than those in the bill to reset to a "reasonable, pre-pandemic level of spending."

"I think we have enough to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit," Johnson said. ...                                                

Didn't even have him!

 

Republican critic of Donald Trump Don Bacon of purple district NE-2 will not run for re-election

 

Bacon not running for reelection 

 

Update Monday Jun 30:

 

Don Bacon won’t seek reelection in competitive Nebraska district

 

Trump administration fails to intimidate Canada, goes Galt and ends trade talks

 

Trump ends all U.S. trade talks with Canada over digital services tax

 

 

 

 

 

 

... The first payments from Canada’s digital services tax, which was enacted last year and applies retroactively to 2022, are set to be collected Monday. The tax would hit both domestic and foreign tech companies, including U.S. giants such as Amazon, Google and Meta.

Canadian officials said this month that they would not pause the digital services tax, despite ferocious opposition from the United States.

“Obviously, we think it’s patently unfair to do it retroactively,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said later Friday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”

Bessent said the Trump administration was hoping that Carney’s government would “put a brake on” the tax “as a sign of goodwill.” ...

 

Trump's idea of good will is 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, 25% tariffs on autos, an overall 10% tariff on most everything else, and a 25% "fentanyl" tariff.