If it hasn't been jet fuel since 2017, it won't be now

Real GDP has been 2.43% compound annual 1Q2017 through 1Q2025. And that includes all the obscene pandemic spending.

This isn't even close to the 2.8% Trump cheerleaders are promising, let alone the 3% The Speaker touts.

 

Speaker Johnson: We've Given Everybody A Tax Cut, That Will Be Jet Fuel For The Economy

 

There's no new tax cut. The Trump tax reform from his first term simply continues. There's no injection of new money on a permanent basis involving tax bracket changes, nothing substantively different for the average taxpayer.

 

There are short-term gimmicks for seniors, earners of tip income, earners of overtime pay, car-buyers, etc., but most of these are scattershot and most importantly, most of them expire in 2028.

 

The incremental adjustments which occur naturally to standard deduction amounts would occur anyway. 

More above average income filers will be able to itemize than previously, but only until 2030.

 

 

 

CNBC also is wondering where the fuel comes from for future GDP under the Trump tax cuts since they are already not cutting it lol

 

What fools these people are! What fools they think we must be!

 

Trump's Tax Cuts Spurred Growth. BBB Will Do It Again

Hassett & Miran, USA Today

 

TRUMP'S TAX CUTS SPURRED NOTHING. 

 

AND NOTHING NEW HAS BEEN CUT NOW, JUST EXTENDED.

 

THERE IS NO NEW FUEL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH. 

 

Real GDP since 1Q2017 has grown at a compound annual rate of 2.43%, 23% BELOW the post-war rate of 3.17% from 1Q1947.

 

The Trump tax cuts have been a failure. 

The consensus estimate for today's GDP report was indeed for -0.2, instead it surprised at -0.5

 

First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised lower Thursday in light of reduced consumer spending, surprising economists.

GDP contracted by 0.5 percent on an annualized basis, 0.3 percentage points lower than the last measurement from the Commerce Department.

Economists were expecting the number to stay the same at a 0.2 percent contraction. ...

More. 

Average yields at Treasury Note auctions this week have been significantly lower than at the immediately preceding auctions, indicating there has been a flight to safety on souring economic growth expectations.

Trump may get his lower interest rates . . . the hard way, lol. 

1Q2025 real GDP revised down 0.3 to -0.5 in third and final estimate on an increase in imports front-loaded into 1Q to avoid Trump's tariffs

 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

 

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment and consumer spending.

 

Real GDP was revised down 0.3 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting downward revisions to consumer spending and exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports. ...

More.

Sounds like Howard Lutnick gobbledygook at the end there. Paragraph two speaks of an increase in imports. Paragraph three of a downward revision to imports. 

Which is it lol? 

Nominal 1Q2025 GDP clocks in at $29.962 trillion in the third estimate. SPX was at 5612 on Mar 31, yielding a crazy high stock market valuation of 187.  

TACO Trump is negative for long term investment, 1Q2025 exports were the worst on record for their positive contribution to GDP

Does anybody ever talk about exports anymore? You know, from domestic production? 

... In recent years, a cautious optimism had returned, as supply chain shocks from the pandemic pushed some companies to bring production back to the US. 

But frequent changes and uncertainty around where Trump's tariff policy is headed has 'got people spooked,' Andrew Anagnost, CEO of Autodesk, told the outlet.

The company sells software used by manufacturers to design factories and improve processes. 

'The current operating mode is just the death to long-term investment,' he said. 

While construction projects that were already underway are still going ahead, he added, confusion about the future is stalling new work. ...

More. 

Exports are a " + " when calculating GDP. Imports are a " - " when calculating it.

Exports' contribution to GDP in 1Q2025 is THE WORST ON RECORD.

No wonder GDP was negative. Outside the pandemic soaring imports had their worst negative impact on GDP on record in 1Q2025.

It's a terrible time to be introducing new huge taxes on imports needed by domestic manufacturers, but that's what Trump is doing. 

 

 

 

CNBC avoids the story like the plague: Real GDP for 1Q2025 was revised up to -0.2% from -0.3% in today's second estimate for 1Q

No one wants to talk about this. Crickets pretty much everywhere. CNBC had Rosie on to discuss, but there was no article.

 

Since 2007 nominal GDP has been growing at a compound annual rate nearly 40% worse than the rate which prevailed from 1947 to 2007

1Q1947-1Q2007: 7.01%

1Q2007-1Q2025: 4.23%

 

 

Nosebleed valuations continue despite recent stock market declines

 It's a long way down to normal.

The 2022 lows got us back only to the 2000 high, and people thought it was the end of the world when all it was was a good beginning lol.

 

Nominal GDP in 1Q2025 is estimated at $29.9776 trillion by the BEA this morning.

$SPX closed at 5611.85 on March 31, 2025.

That yields a ratio of 187 vs. the historical mean of 81, or 131% overvalued. 

Guru Focus gets similar results from the Buffett Indicator:

 

Real GDP shrank 0.3% in 1Q2025

Shrink, shrank, shrunk.

U.S. economy shrunk 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses

... fueled by an unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to get ahead of the Trump tariffs ...

Tomorrow is a big day for economic reports: Core pce inflation and 1Q2025 real GDP

 The consensus estimate for tomorrow's core pce inflation number is 2.6% year over year in March, and 0.1% month over month. In February the actual numbers were 2.8% year over year and 0.4% month over month.

The consensus estimate for tomorrow's real GDP estimate is 0.4% vs. 2.4% actual the previous quarter. Yes, you read that right, 0.4%. GDPNow's final read on 1Q2025 out this morning is  . . .  -2.7%.

Yikes.

The ADP employment change will also be reported. Consensus is for +108,000 vs. +155,000 actual the previous month.

Nonfarm payrolls comes out on Friday. Consensus is for +130,000 for April vs. +228,000 actual in March.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has been in the toilet since the end of February, latest snapshot for 1Q2025 is -2.5%

 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.5 percent on April 24, down from -2.2 percent on April 17. 

More.

The BEA's first estimate of first quarter real GDP is scheduled for release on April 30th.

This number seems wei tu lo

 

IMF Warns Trump Could Cost the World a Trillion Dollars

The Guardian

 

Is that all?

 

World GDP in 2023 was $106.2 trillion according to the World Bank, whose graph shows that the 2009 Great Recession contraction was $3.34 trillion. The Grauniad is worried that the Trump trade war will cost a third of the 2009 contraction, based on an analysis by the IMF, "the most sober of global institutions" lol.

 

Meanwhile there was a 2015 contraction in global GDP which was much larger, $4.55 trillion. That was much worse than the so-called Great Recession. And much worse than the global impact of COVID in 2020, which was $2.39 trillion according to the World Bank's data.

 

Why isn't this popularly discussed?

 

AI laughably tells me "global GDP did not actually contract in 2015".

 

 

 

 

 

But the World Bank itself traces the 2015 global GDP hit to a massive contraction in trade, at the heart of which was the forced restructuring of the Chinese economy under Xi Jinping, who is a communist reactionary.

 

The sizes of the tariffs of Donald Trump, which far exceed those of the Smoot-Hawley era, especially with trade hegemon China, seem uniquely poised to wreak havoc on a world whose experts today can't draw the obvious parallel to the right year.

The Trump administration lives in the libertarian past of Atlas Shrugged, in John Galt's 1957, when US GDP was 40% of world GDP and everybody needed us more than we needed them

They are as stupid as they are insufferably arrogant.

 

US GDP as a share of world GDP has been in steady decline since 1960 to just 26% in 2023

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April 1, down from -2.8 percent on March 28

Reported here.

 

After 38 years, it's time to junk the bedrock idea undergirding conservative economic philosophy of low taxes because IT'S NOT TRUE

 AXIOS today, here:

A bedrock idea of conservative economic philosophy is [the] idea that low taxes fuel economic growth. 

This idea is simply false, and history proves it.

We've had 38 years since the Reagan Tax Reform Act of 1986 to prove it correct and it's not.

Real GDP 1986-2024 has grown at a compound annual rate of 2.586%, a rate 29% worse than for the same length of time before that when taxes were much higher.

Real GDP 1948-1986 grew at a compound annual rate of 3.635%.

Tax reform is a complicated topic, the political subject of the AXIOS article.

I can simplify it for you: Tax like we used to in the immediate post-war.

Nominal marginal rates in 1957 (dollars are NOT adjusted for inflation in the tables), the height of the Baby Boom, went from 20% to 91%.

The set up didn't stop people from marrying, having children, and buying houses, and it didn't stop economic growth, because it forced rich people to avoid these confiscatory marginal rates by investing their money domestically to earn income at lower rates of capital taxation.

Ronald Reagan's tax reform was a license to invest elsewhere, and we're all poorer for it. 

If Democrats had any brains they would propose richly rewarding domestic investment using the tax code and severely punishing foreign investment. They could start by raising top marginal tax rates on ordinary income and offering much lower long term capital gains tax rates de-linked from ordinary income but only for domestic investment.

The country desperately needs much better economic growth, and the libertarian-Republican consensus is not providing it.

 

 

Investment abroad eclipsed investment at home for the first time in 1993 and is 200% of domestic today

The March 28, 2025 GDPNow forecast for 1Q2025 GDP falls sharply to -2.8%

 

Real GDP update for Mar 27, 2025

 The third report for real GDP for 4Q2024 and full year 2024 was released today here.

The annual rate of economic growth in 4Q was 2.4%, and 2.8% for 2024.

But here's the big picture.

Real GDP for the 79 years 1929-2008 grew at a compound annual rate of 3.405%.

Real GDP for the 16 years 2008-2024 grew at a compound annual rate of 2.074%, a rate 39% lower.

We have not had, and do not now have, the greatest economy ever at any point since the Great Recession.

 

 

Atlanta Fed 1Q2025 GDP Now Model update: -1.8%

Skippin' along down there.

 

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model predicts -2.1% real GDP for 1Q2025 in today's update

 Here.

This is the 10th of 19 estimates scheduled through the end of April for 1Q.

This is the 4th negative estimate.