The weather forecast for Election Day 2024 looks pretty miserable in much of the country

 

LA could do with a wash

 WEEKEND: Hurricane threatens flooding in Southwest...

LA winds up to 80mph!

FORECAST CONE... COMPUTER MODELS...

Oceanic Nino Index shows a moderate La Nina in the 2020-2021 year just past

 

 

The anomaly at or below -0.5 persisted for 10 out of 12 overlapping periods in the 2020-2021 measuring season. For the first two periods of the 2021-2022 measuring season the anomaly continues in the negative at sum -0.9. The deepest anomaly in the last season was -1.3 in the October-November-December period, which is considered neither weak nor strong, but middling.

The trend toward lower ONI values since 1951 is consistent with wetter conditions in the Upper Midwest of the US, and greater incidence of tropical storms in the Atlantic from the 1980s. There is no need to adduce "global warming":

the historical tropical storm count record does not provide compelling evidence for a greenhouse warming induced long-term increase.

 

Phone and internet have been down in Grand Rapids, MI for many people since 2:00 AM Saturday

Because of severe thunderstorms. NOAA gave us about 30 minutes warning in an email, while we were asleep. The weather radio never went off.

Just now got back up, despite having power and A/C the whole time.

Civilization as we know it hangs by a thread, but we simply undertook useful tasks and our customary simple entertainments instead.

University of Arizona-Tucson parking lot, a great place to measure official surface temperature to prove global warming AND kill your unattended baby or dog in the car from heat exposure at the same time

Story.

IPCC puts global warming at +1.53 degrees F 1880-2012, over 3.8 times what it was in Grand Rapids, Michigan

The average temperature trend in Grand Rapids, Michigan shows warming of about only 0.4 degrees F over the 120-year record from 1898 through 2017, according to NOAA online weather data for the station. The relatively small increase combined with the recency of the highs for the data series, however, makes one wonder about possible interference from developing heat island effects at the station, which is located near the increasingly busy Ford International Airport.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change figure of 1.53 degrees F is referenced here.

The data for Grand Rapids is shown below.

NOAA's Climate at a Glance tool deliberately leaves out data going back to 1896 to misrepresent the Grand Rapids, MI, temperature trend

You can ask the Climate at a Glance tool for the data going back to 1896, but it won't give it to you:

But the data exists for Grand Rapids at the National Weather Service, from which I made this graph:

Dr. John Bates, formerly of NOAA, blows whistle on data tampering to erase warming pause

From the story here:

But the whistleblower, Dr John Bates, a top NOAA scientist with an impeccable reputation, has shown The Mail on Sunday irrefutable evidence that the paper was based on misleading, ‘unverified’ data. ... In an exclusive interview, Dr Bates accused the lead author of the paper, Thomas Karl, who was until last year director of the NOAA section that produces climate data – the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) – of ‘insisting on decisions and scientific choices that maximised warming and minimised documentation… in an effort to discredit the notion of a global warming pause, rushed so that he could time publication to influence national and international deliberations on climate policy’.

Grand Rapids, Michigan, experienced a temperature anomaly of 5.0 degrees F above normal in March 2016

Temperature averaged 40.6 degrees F, according to the preliminary monthly climate data. The cumulative reported anomaly year to date is +9.3 degrees F.

The very long term mean average temperature in March, however, is 34.0 degrees F using the full NOWdata, so NOAA is saying the normal average is 35.6 degrees F based on a smaller data set which does not incorporate the full record available. Otherwise the anomaly would be 6.6 degrees F, not 5.0. For the year to date, the anomaly from the long term mean is +13.9 degrees F.

Precipitation was 2.57 inches above normal, coming in at 4.94 inches. The very long term mean precipitation average is 2.46 inches in February, however, not 2.37, meaning precipitation was 2.48 inches above the long term normal.

Snowfall was 10.1 inches, 0.9 inches above the mean average of 9.2 for the month calculated going back to the beginning of the record. January is typically the snowiest month at 18.5 inches, followed by December at 15.9 and then February at 13.1. For the season so far, which is effectively over, snowfall has come to 51.7 inches, 11.8 inches below the long term mean average for the season so far (63.5 inches), or 18.6%. Snow is still expected in April.

Heating degree days in March at 749 were 21.4% below the very long term mean of 953. Cumulatively for the season HDD are running 1031 below the normal of 5857, about 17.6%, thanks to the El Nino.

Grand Rapids, MI in February 2016 experienced a temperature anomaly of 2.7 degrees F above normal on average

Temperature averaged 29.5 degrees F.

The very long term mean average temperature in February, however, is 24.4 degrees F using the full NOWdata, so NOAA is saying the normal average is 26.8 based on a smaller data set which does not incorporate the full record available. Otherwise the anomaly would be 5.1 degrees F, not 2.7.

Do these people know what they're doing?

Precipitation was 0.99 inches above normal, coming in at 2.78 inches. The very long term mean precipitation average is 1.76 inches in February, however, not 1.79.

Snowfall was 14.8 inches, 1.7 inches above the mean average of 13.1 for the month calculated going back to the beginning of the record. January is typically the snowiest month at 18.5 inches, followed by December at 15.9 and then February at 13.1.

Heating degree days in February were 10.35% below the very long term mean of 1140 at 1022. Cumulatively for the season HDD are running 827 below normal (4077 v 4904), about 16.9% to date, thanks to the El Nino.

Partly due to the warmer winter weather than normal, my natural gas consumption in February is down almost 26% year over year. But I also remedied an attic insulation defect last summer.

It's not just the satellite data showing a pause in global warming

The land record kept by NOAA does too. The decadal trend is actually slightly negative since January 1997: -0.19 degrees F per decade.

The warming models predict neither a pause let alone such a decline.

Great Lakes average ice cover climbs to 88.75% after 59 days of 2015

Here's the recent history of day 59 data for average ice cover in the Great Lakes:

2011: 34.87%

2012: 06.09%

2013: 18.67%

2014: 85.40%

2015: 88.75%.

Ice cover conditions can change rapidly in the Great Lakes as temperatures drop.

2014 began the year with just 20% coverage, surpassing 60% by the first of February as the average air temperature plunged in January. For example, Grand Rapids, Michigan finished January 2014 6.3 degrees below normal on average. Ice coverage peaked above 92% by the end of the first week of March after a much colder February than normal. Again for example Grand Rapids air temperature finished February 2014 9.1 degrees below normal on average.

2015 is repeating this pattern to a significant degree. Beginning the year with just 5.65% ice coverage, the average cover climbed to only 38% by the first of February 2015 as January was not as cold as the previous year. For example, average air temperature in Grand Rapids was only 3.2 degrees below normal vs. 6.3 degrees the year before. Ice cover rocketed up on average in February, however, as the temperature plunged to finish the month 13.5 degrees below normal on average in Grand Rapids vs. 9.1 degrees below normal the previous year. It took just 11 days in February 2015 for average ice cover to surpass 60%, and just 16 days to surpass 80%.

Average ice cover in the Great Lakes may well surpass 92% as average air temperatures have averaged 1.3 degrees colder in the first two months of 2015 than in 2014.

Great Lakes Ice Cover is 25% ahead of this time last year: a warning for GDP?

Last year on this date the total ice cover was just 67%, when GDP was going negative supposedly because of the terrible winter we were having. The year before, ice cover on this date was 74.3%. As of yesterday, ice covers 84.4% of the Great Lakes, 25% ahead of last year.

Will GDP tank in 1Q2015 because of this?

We won't have what passes for complete knowledge about this until the end of June.

Data here.

Attention Drudge readers: Anthony Watts booted "Steven Goddard" from WattsUpWithThat some years ago

Seen here.

Drudge recently linked to a "Goddard" (a nom de plume) story about the summer of 2014 being the "coolest summer on record" in the country, through like July 23rd, which it certainly is from the point of view of extreme summer temperatures, i.e. the annual frequency of 90 degree F or above on a percentage basis. For his story showing the chart of the NOAA data, see here. Extreme summer temperatures have been in decline for most of the last century, contrary to the alarmism of the global warming crowd, a point "Goddard" doesn't seem to have emphasized.

There is no reason to doubt his presentation of the facts that I can detect, except that it could be argued from a chart of the other extreme, the annual frequency of below zero temperatures, that for the same period, about eighty years, there has been a slight decline in the frequency of that metric, too. So there may be a decline in extremes also on the cold side if confirmed. So far "Goddard" has not supplied the trend line for that chart in the comments section. But if confirmed, that would suggest a general thesis that climate extremes have been declining within a minor warming trend which may or may not be reversing now. That's big news since climate alarmists keep telling us the warming trend will produce "extreme weather". It isn't. It's producing ameliorating conditions.

  

Oops: Last Fall NOAA Predicted Above Normal Temps November Through January

Reported here:

Surprised by how tough this winter has been? You’re in good company: Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states. ... The big red blotch in the top map represents parts of the country in which the Climate Prediction Center forecast above-average temperatures. The frigid-looking blue blotch in the bottom “verification” map shows areas where temperatures turned out to be below average. “Not one of our better forecasts,” admits Mike Halpert, the Climate Prediction Center’s acting director.

----------------------------------------------

How come the experts are always surprised?

This is another climate model failure, you know the kind, like the ones which claim global warming continues even though it stopped fourteen years ago.

Hurricane Irene Disappoints Alarmists and Catastrophists

As reported here:

From North Carolina to Pennsylvania, Hurricane Irene appeared to have fallen short of the doomsday predictions. But with rivers still rising, and roads impassable because of high water and fallen trees, it could be days before the full extent of the damage is known.

More than 4.5 million homes and businesses along the East Coast lost power, and at least nine deaths were blamed on the storm. But as day broke Sunday, light damage was reported in many places, with little more than downed trees and power lines.


At 0900 the National Hurricane center had Irene hit New York City as a tropical storm, not a hurricane, with wind speed at 65 mph:

At 1037 Stormpulse.com still had Irene as a hurricane at 75 mph: