... With nuclear weapons in hand, Iran could threaten the global order with impunity. ... Tehran would recover, build atomic weapons, decide who may pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, and slowly strangle the global economy by demanding tribute for access to precious Gulf oil and LNG.
Very odd essay.
Here.
Trump says Iran’s president asked for ceasefire, but U.S. wants Hormuz Strait open first
President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Iran’s “New Regime President” has asked the U.S. for a ceasefire. ...
There is something deeply insane about all this.
Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines which can by-pass the Strait of Hormuz and replace a part of the lost export capacity. Production will have to be curtailed because there's nowhere to go with it. And everyone in the world will be poorer for it.
WASHINGTON—President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.
In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said. ...
Trump lashes out at UK and France, telling allies ‘the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore’
... “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!,” he concluded. ... For its part, Tehran continues to demonstrate its ability to dominate and derail maritime traffic in the strait, hitting a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port earlier Tuesday.
He thinks this is a bargaining chip instead of a requirement.
... So far in March, the first full month of war, barely six vessels per day on average have traversed the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world, in either direction. That compares with about 135 a day in normal times, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Over that time, 80% of the small number of oil tankers exiting the strait have been Iranian — or belong to countries with which it is on cordial terms, the figures show. ...
Out of the 110 individual ships that left the gulf this month, more than 36% were sanctioned Iranian ships or part of the so-called dark fleet serving Tehran, data compiled by Bloomberg show. For oil tankers, 21 out of 35 that have exited had direct Iranian ties — but most of the remainder went to nations with whom Tehran has a friendly relationship.
Until this war, one long-held assumption around Hormuz was that Iran would never attempt to close the strait, for fear of risking its own exports, a vital economic lifeline. In fact, ship-tracking data suggest that Tehran’s oil has continued to flow — almost entirely to China — even as other ships are stranded and producers in the region have been left scrambling for alternatives or forced to stop producing as storage fills up.
Iran exported roughly 1.8 million barrels a day this month, a nearly 8% increase from its average over 2025, according to figures from data intelligence firm Kpler as of March 26. That likely facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars of oil revenue for Tehran, a Bloomberg News analysis shows. ...
More.
Persian Gulf Activity: 1.7/day last week vs. 0.3/day prior week
Red Sea Activity: 11.1/day last week vs. 18.6/day prior week
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| JMIC Advisory Mar 29 |
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| JMIC Advisory Mar 22 |
The UAE is bypassing the Strait of Hormuz with 1.9 million barrels per day now coming out of Fujairah via its overland pipeline, and Saudi Arabia's overland pipeline west to Yanbu is moving about 4.5 million barrels per day out through the Red Sea, but that's not the 20 million barrels per day lost due to the war, and no LNG is moving at all.
Pakistan and Bangladesh get two thirds of their LNG from the Gulf, Taiwan gets one third of its LNG. Taiwan says its has eleven days' supply remaining. Many others are also severely affected by the cut-off of LNG from Qatar. About 20 LNG tankers are trapped in the Gulf, half the global fleet available for charter.
Meanwhile Iran has increased export of its oil from 1 million barrels per day in February to 2 million in March, 90% of which goes to China, and Iran is now charging tolls to vessels to exit the Gulf along its coast, which occurs only under Iranian escort.
Brent oil tops $110 again after Chinese ships are turned away from Strait of Hormuz
... “The oil market did not underreact to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz; it absorbed it,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil analyst at Rystad Energy.
“For nearly four weeks, markets have shown remarkable resilience … supported by a combination of pre-war surplus, crude-on-water, and policy barrels that provided a temporary buffer and kept prices contained. That phase is now ending,” she said.
According to Rystad, the global system has shifted from “buffered to fragile” after weeks of supply losses and inventory drawdowns, leaving little room to absorb further shocks.
Nearly 17.8 million barrels per day of oil and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted, the firm estimated, with close to 500 million barrels of total liquids lost so far.
Trump says Iran let 10 oil ships through Strait of Hormuz as ‘present’ to U.S.
... “That was three days ago, and I didn’t think much about it,” he said. ...
No kidding.
This cockamamie idea sounds like it was thought up by Howard Lutnick.
The vessels went to China and India, and transited along the coast of Iran after passing between Qeshm and Larak and did not take the usual central passage, so they probably had to pay tolls.
I wonder if they sent the bill to Mexico? 🤣
Sounds more like a gift to our competitors and enemies than to us.
UKMTO reported ten transits two days ago, but not all were oil, and some were outbound and some inbound; this summary is probably what someone showed to Trump and they just assumed it was all oil outbound when it was not:
Oil prices fall as Iran signals safe passage for ‘non-hostile’ ships through Strait of Hormuz
... Iran’s mission to the United Nations said Tuesday that “non-hostile vessels” would be able to pass through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, provided they coordinate “with the competent Iranian authorities.”
The social media post appears to establish a protocol that has emerged in recent days, with some ships from China, India and Pakistan able to pass through the waterway as Iran flexes control over it. ...
Normal transits are about 138/day vs. four on March 22 and six on March 23.
Not only do the Iranians control the Strait, they've turned it into a racket.
Vessels have been tracked passing between Qeshm and Larak, presumably for visual inspection, instead of through the main track of the Strait of Hormuz.
... More than 20 vessels of over 10,000 dwt have thus far made the detour, which goes between Iran’s Qeshm and Larak Islands. ...
More.
... He advises Trump to abandon his magical thinking and “face the fact” that he must use the military to open the strait, neutralise Iranian defences along the coast and deploy ships to escort oil tankers through.
“There’s no question there’s going to be lives lost and it’s clearly going to expand the war but I don’t see the alternative. He’s got to do it. He’s talked a great deal about the strength of the United States. This is a test of whether the United States can be able to deal with that situation which otherwise is not only going to prolong the war but create a lot of economic damage to the United States with those soaring fuel prices and cause what some have said is a potential worldwide recession.”
Panetta added frankly: “There’s not much choice. You’ve got to do what you have to do and, if you can open the strait, it might give you a better chance to then have a basis on which you can negotiate hopefully some kind of ceasefire. That’s the only way that he can go at this point; otherwise he will clearly have failed to find a solution.” ...
More.
He's right.
The economy has Strait of Hormuz deadline for Trump: Two weeks
... For now, the C-suite has its own view of the matter: it’s roughly two weeks and counting for the Trump administration and any allies that join the effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or corporate executives have to assume that the conflict will drag on until at least mid-year, with all of the negative consequences that come with that for the global economy. That was the conclusion on a call among members of the CNBC CFO Council earlier this week with energy and commodities market expert John Kilduff of Again Capital, who joined CFOs to share his view of the oil price outlook from inside the trader and investor community. ... If the military and government do not have good answers by April 1, “The crunch is coming.” ... by the end of the year, even in the U.S., “We’re going to have a major energy crisis on our hands. … I think the shortages would certainly have come to California by then,” Kilduff said. ... "if this goes on much more than two weeks or so, we’re going to reprice the barrels of oil here considerably higher,” he said. ...
