As gold’s tumble continues, traders bet the pain may last for two more years
... “Turkey’s central bank is selling gold and buying dollars trying to
support the lira, and the gulf nations – Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia – they
need the money for the war so they’ve been selling gold, too,” Nigam
Arora, founder of the Arora Report, said in a call. “At the same time,
India’s raised duties on gold, and anyone who’s just watching charts,
they had stops under $4,400 and had to start selling when it broke that
level.“ ...
Meanwhile in India . . .
Reserve Bank of India’s forex defense tool surpasses $110 billion as rupee slides
The RBI's net-short dollar book has ballooned to
record levels as India's central bank fights to stabilize a currency
under siege from oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and capital
outflows.
India’s central bank is burning through an unprecedented amount of
financial ammunition to keep the rupee from cratering. The Reserve Bank
of India’s forward dollar-selling contracts have crossed the $110
billion mark, reaching an estimated $110-115 billion in early June 2026,
a record for the institution’s net-short dollar book.
Think of it like this: instead of selling dollars from its vault
today and watching reserves drain in real time, the RBI is writing IOUs
to sell dollars at a future date. It’s a way to defend the currency now
while kicking the reserve hit down the road. The problem is that the
IOUs are piling up fast, and the road isn’t getting any longer. ...
India imports roughly 85% of its crude oil needs, making it acutely
sensitive to energy cost swings. When oil gets more expensive, India
needs more dollars to pay for it, which weakens the rupee.
The forward sales strategy itself carries a subtle risk. Those
contracts eventually mature, meaning the RBI will need to deliver
dollars at the agreed-upon future dates. If the rupee hasn’t stabilized
by then, the central bank could face a situation where it’s
simultaneously defending the currency in real time and settling old
commitments. ...