Gold and silver are down year to date, but not copper

 Copper is up because high oil prices are bullish for all things electric.

 

 

 

When the going gets tough, the weak have to sell their gold, or hinder its purchase

 As gold’s tumble continues, traders bet the pain may last for two more years

... “Turkey’s central bank is selling gold and buying dollars trying to support the lira, and the gulf nations – Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia – they need the money for the war so they’ve been selling gold, too,” Nigam Arora, founder of the Arora Report, said in a call. “At the same time, India’s raised duties on gold, and anyone who’s just watching charts, they had stops under $4,400 and had to start selling when it broke that level.“ ...       

Meanwhile in India . . .

Reserve Bank of India’s forex defense tool surpasses $110 billion as rupee slides 

The RBI's net-short dollar book has ballooned to record levels as India's central bank fights to stabilize a currency under siege from oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and capital outflows. 

India’s central bank is burning through an unprecedented amount of financial ammunition to keep the rupee from cratering. The Reserve Bank of India’s forward dollar-selling contracts have crossed the $110 billion mark, reaching an estimated $110-115 billion in early June 2026, a record for the institution’s net-short dollar book.

Think of it like this: instead of selling dollars from its vault today and watching reserves drain in real time, the RBI is writing IOUs to sell dollars at a future date. It’s a way to defend the currency now while kicking the reserve hit down the road. The problem is that the IOUs are piling up fast, and the road isn’t getting any longer. ...

India imports roughly 85% of its crude oil needs, making it acutely sensitive to energy cost swings. When oil gets more expensive, India needs more dollars to pay for it, which weakens the rupee.

The forward sales strategy itself carries a subtle risk. Those contracts eventually mature, meaning the RBI will need to deliver dollars at the agreed-upon future dates. If the rupee hasn’t stabilized by then, the central bank could face a situation where it’s simultaneously defending the currency in real time and settling old commitments. ...

Gold and silver do not believe today's happy talk about oil

 

Silver ended the day down 8.63% on a year-to-date basis.

Gold ended the day down 1.33% on a year-to-date basis. 

Both silver and gold have lost their 2025 mojo year to date because oil, up 68% so far in 2026, is where it's at, Jack

 

Everything sold off today

Stocks were down across the board, with the NASD 100 notably down 4.77%. The equal weight S&P 500 is down 0.52% month to date.

The Tech sector was down the most on the day, 5.78%.

The Consumer Staples sector was up the most on the day, 1.64%, which looks defensive against a possible coming recession. The Utilities sector was up half that.

The U.S. 10Y yield rose to 4.55%, and the 20Y and 30Y yields rose above 5.00. YTD return for VUSUX is now down 0.85%.

Oil retreated 3%.

Metals were down across the board, silver down over 8%.

Crypto was down across the board, too, with Bitcoin falling below $60k.

But DXY climbed! +0.658 to 100.071.

The theory is investors are upset that today's "strong" jobs numbers (the 70k hospitality hires is probably World Cup related, a one off, so forget that) indicate easy money from the Fed is now absolutely out of the question, and maybe even a rate increase is coming because the economy is running too hot, which is silly with 1Q GDP at 1.6% annualized. CNBC called that "solid" lol.

Jokers say everyone's just raising cash to buy overpriced SpaceX in its IPO next week.

Investors are taking profits ahead of SpaceX IPO, says Capital Wealth’s Kevin Simpson

SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says

Gold and silver are still up 5+% year to date

 SPX +10.52% ytd

WTI +53.11% ytd

 

Meanwhile in April: 

Hamburger +18.9% yoy

Coffee +29.0% yoy

Unleaded regular gasoline +28.0% yoy

Electricity +7.2% yoy

Natural gas +3.1% yoy

[Trump 9/21/2024: "We will cut your energy prices in half. Mark it down . . . within 12 months . . ."] 

Milk +1.5% yoy

Whole Chicken -1.6% yoy 

Eggs -56.1% yoy

Tomatoes +50.0% yoy

 

And: 

30-year mortgage average monthly, above 6% since August 2022

Full time jobs above 50% of population just 6 of the last 25 quarters, all under Joe Biden

 

Silver is still up 6.14% year to date, gold 5.09% even as energy prices march higher

 But SPX is up 8.02% ytd.

WTI is up 84.01% ytd.

VGENX is up 20.88% ytd.

 

Investment grade corporate securities:  

VWESX is down 1.54% ytd.

VFICX is down 0.65% ytd.

VFSTX is up 0.27% ytd.

 

US Treasury securities:

VUSUX is down 2.52% ytd. 

VFIUX is down 1.05% ytd.

VFIRX is up 0.16% ytd. 

 

Inflation:

CPI (CPIAUCSL) is up 3.77% year over year in April.

PCE (PCEPI) is up 3.49% yoy in March. 

 

Nominal Broad Dollar Index:

April: 119.03

1Q2026: 119.01

2025: 122.75

5Y: 119.94 

 

GDP, Compound Annual Growth Rate

5Y: 7.031% nominal, 2.775% real 

 

 

Silver is up 12.24% ytd, gold is up 9.15% ytd

 SPX: +7.88% ytd

WTI:  +66.2% ytd

Gold is up 6.82% year to date, silver is up 5.29%

 SPX is up 5.42% ytd

WTI is up about 78% ytd 

Year to date gold and silver are beating the S&P 500

 

Gold is up 11.82% ytd, silver 12.85%

 

Gold is up 9.9323% YTD, silver 5.9767%

Silver and gold had a good week: 

Silver: $76.60 USD +$4.04 USD +5.57% 1W

Gold: $4,764.80 USD +$112.50 USD +2.42% 1W.

Silver was $72.28 on Jan 1, gold was $4,334.30.

Prices are per APMEX, where the 3M and YTD results just happen to be nearly identical as of April 12th, indicating more stability actually Mar 31 to Apr 12.

The war in Iran has been net negative for both gold and silver in the last 30 days, however, as oil prices rose in a volatile manner, which is where all the betting action went. Gold was down over 7% and silver over 10% in the last 30 days.

The blockade of Iran is likely to cause oil prices to spike much more this week, and precious metals to fade, but you never know from day to day with you know who in charge.

Stackers of precious metals will view future price drops as buying opportunities.

Judas' silver is up 2% year to date, gold is up 8%

 Silver:  $73.77 USD +$1.49 USD +2.06% YTD

Gold:  $4,693.90 USD +$359.60 USD +8.3% YTD  

Silver is down 2.43% ytd per apmex, gold is up 4.04%

Silver:  $70.52 USD - ($1.76) USD -2.43% YTD

Gold:  $4,509.40 USD $175.10 USD 4.04% YTD
 

Year to date silver is down 5% and gold is up almost 4%

 

Gold and silver are on sale today lol

 Gold and silver sell-off accelerates as inflation fears grip global markets

... fears about the Iran war and inflation gripped global markets ... 

... The moves in gold and silver come amid broader risk-off sentiment, which has seen global equities and government bonds fall in tandem. ... 

Gold ends the week up 16.20% year to date, silver 12.53%

 

Gold is up 19.73% ytd, silver up 17.94%

 

Gold finished the week up 22.15% year to date, silver 30.77%

 

CNBC doesn't mention that the dollar rallied in the last month along with bonds and gold

 Gold heads for seventh straight monthly gain on safe-haven demand

... The metal has climbed 6.5% so ⁠far in February, bringing gains for the seven months to a whopping 58%. ... The benchmark 10-year yield fell to a three-month low ‌on the day, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying gold. ...