SPX 1999-2025
1,469.25 12-31-1999
6,753.72 10-8-2025 close
+359%
GOLD 1999-2025
278.88 average 1999 price per Kitco
+1348%
Open and shut case, right?
Well, not so fast.
With dividend reinvestment SPX returned approximately 712% over the period, not just the 359% increase in the price level.
$279 invested in SPX in 1999 would yield approximately $2,267 by now vs. $4,038 for gold, which yields nothing over time beyond the increase in its price. Plus you have to pay to protect your gold from thieves.
Still, the gold outcome has been about 78% better, but that's only thanks to the recent dramatic rise in the gold price since 2023 when gold was still in the neighborhood of $1,940 an ounce, after averaging just a little over $1,800 in 2022.
Although I expect gold to continue to rise, a stock market reset would most likely trigger a big self-off in gold as stock and other speculators raise cash to cover their debts.
As always, diversification is key to surviving as an investor. And more important than that is being able to cover your debts if you won't live without debt.
