If it hasn't been jet fuel since 2017, it won't be now

Real GDP has been 2.43% compound annual 1Q2017 through 1Q2025. And that includes all the obscene pandemic spending.

This isn't even close to the 2.8% Trump cheerleaders are promising, let alone the 3% The Speaker touts.

 

Speaker Johnson: We've Given Everybody A Tax Cut, That Will Be Jet Fuel For The Economy

 

There's no new tax cut. The Trump tax reform from his first term simply continues. There's no injection of new money on a permanent basis involving tax bracket changes, nothing substantively different for the average taxpayer.

 

There are short-term gimmicks for seniors, earners of tip income, earners of overtime pay, car-buyers, etc., but most of these are scattershot and most importantly, most of them expire in 2028.

 

The incremental adjustments which occur naturally to standard deduction amounts would occur anyway. 

More above average income filers will be able to itemize than previously, but only until 2030.

 

 

 

U. S. House GOP majority declines to 219-212 as Mark Green of TN-7 resigns, as expected

 Story.

Democrats are down three seats temporarily due to deaths. 

Performance of some older Vanguard funds since inception, through June 30, 2025

In chronological order:

 

Wellington Fund, VWELX, inception July 1, 1929: 8.35%

Windsor Fund, VWNDX, inception October 23, 1958: 11.24%

U. S. Growth Fund, VWUSX, inception January 6, 1959: 11.04%

Explorer Fund, VEXPX, inception December 11, 1967: 9.34%

Wellesley Income Fund, VWINX, inception July 1, 1970: 9.19%

Long Term Investment Grade Fund, VWESX, inception July 9, 1973: 7.30% 

500 Index Fund, VFINX, inception August 31, 1976: 11.50%

Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund, VWLTX, inception September 1, 1977: 5.26% 

High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund, VWAHX, inception December 27, 1978: 5.87% 

High-Yield Corporate Fund, VWEHX, inception December 27, 1978: 7.8%

GNMA Fund, VFIIX, inception June 27, 1980: 6.18% 

International Growth Fund, VWIGX, inception September 30, 1981: 10.38%

Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund, VFSTX, inception October 29, 1982: 5.43%

International Value Fund, VTRIX, inception May 16, 1983: 8.36%

Global Capital Cycles Fund, VGPMX, inception May 23, 1984/September 26, 2018: 5.15% 

Energy Fund, VGENX, inception May 23, 1984: 9.53% 

Health Care Fund, VGHCX, inception May 23, 1984: 14.57%

PRIMECAP Fund, VPMCX, inception November 1, 1984: 13.53%

Star Fund, VGSTX, inception March 29, 1985: 9.23%

Windsor II Fund, VWNFX, inception June 24, 1985: 10.91%

Long-Term Treasury Fund, VUSTX, inception May 19, 1986: 5.82% 

Growth and Income Fund, VQNPX, inception December 10, 1986: 10.93% 

Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBMFX, inception December 11, 1986: 5.03%

Extended Market Index Fund, VEXMX, inception December 21, 1987: 10.53%

Equity Income Fund, VEIPX, inception March 21, 1988: 10.32% 

Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX, inception April 27, 1992: 10.47%

Dividend Growth Fund, VDIGX, inception May 15, 1992: 9.01%

Growth Index Fund, VIGRX, inception November 2, 1992: 11.31% 

 

Vanguard performance: Total bond and total stock market indices since inception

 VBMFX, inception 12/11/1986: 5.03% through 6/30/25

VTSMX, inception 4/27/1992: 10.47% through 6/30/25 

SPX since August 2000 continues to underperform the pre-Reagan era by almost 20% in real terms, the Reagan bull market era by almost 68%

SPX 8/2000-5/2025: 7.62% per annum nominal, 4.95% per annum real (inflation rate 2.54% per annum)

SPX 1/1871-7/1982: 8.15% per annum nominal, 6.18% per annum real (inflation 1.86%)

SPX 7/1982-8/2000: 18.99% per annum nominal, 15.28% per annum real (inflation 3.22%) 

 

We'll get the June 2025 Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday July 15th. The previous read was 2.4% yoy overall, and 2.8% yoy for the core.  

SPX vs. gold since 1913

 

Gold 1913-2025 ($20.67-$3500.05 peak on April 22, 2025): 4.689% compound annual growth rate, nominal.

The S&P 500 did better than that in nominal terms.  SPX 4/1913-4/2025 (8.79-5369.50, monthly average prices): 5.895% compound annual growth rate, which does not include dividends reinvested; the nominal per annum plus dividends reinvested produced 10.14% total nominal per annum.

In real terms the $20.67 price of gold in April 1913 is only $676.62 in April 2025, or 3.164% CAGR inflation over the period. So in real terms gold is up just 1.478% per annum over the period (from $676.62 to $3500.05). 

Again in real terms SPX is up more, 2.65% per annum without dividends reinvested over the period, and even more with dividends reinvested, 6.76% per annum.

Spot gold on July 4th was lower than in April, at $3329.67. 

SPX made a new high for the Fourth of July.

 

 

US Treasury yields were down modestly in June 2025 on an average basis

Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.

 

Billionaire becomes homeless

 Welcome to the club, bub.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says he’s ‘politically homeless’ in July 4 post bashing Democrats

 

America to Ukraine: Freedom for me, but not for thee

Putin attacks Kyiv after call with Trump:

 

The GOP House bowed down and worshipped before the GOP Senate and voted for its reconciliation bill lock, stock, and barrel today at 2:30pm, including all the clowns of the House Freedom Caucus

The roll call vote is here.

The $36 trillion national debt will soar.

The interest payments on that debt were $639 billion fiscal year to date at the end of May, and they will soar, too.

The so-called fiscal conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus could have stopped this monstrosity, but they all backed down save for Massie and Fitzpatrick, and they aren't even members.

The entire House Freedom Caucus voted for it. 

 

 

Hakeem Jeffries has finished his speech in the US House, which took 8 hours and 44 minutes, a new record

 

You can't win: State and local government employment is up 175k since January, which more than offsets federal employment down 69k

 The swamp is everywhere lol.

down 69k

up 119k

up 56k

Pressure on the House GOP reconciliation bill holdouts got them all, save one, to flip at 03:23 this morning, finally allowing the bill to come to the floor for debate

Thomas Massie was originally for bringing the bill to the floor for debate, then switched to against that after Trump got testy with him lol, and then switched back to for again after getting Trump to stop criticizing him, at least temporarily.

He'll still vote against this damn thing, and will probably be the only one. 

The debate phase started at 03:30 and is still ongoing.

Hakeem Jeffries is trying to outdo Kevin McCarthy with a marathon floor speech in opposition longer than eight hours and thirty-two minutes. 

In education news, the once great Indiana University has turned its back on Western civilization and purged its traditional degree programs because the children of the barbarians don't enroll in them anymore

 A victory for the mouth breather, Marco Rubio, fellow servant of Mammon.

 

 

Donald Trump has managed to fire a measly 69,000 federal employees since January, state government employees up 56,000 lol

Looks like a lot of federal workers found new jobs lol. 

We had a record average number who were eating but not working in the United States in 1H2025, not seasonally adjusted: 102.65 million

 The seasonally adjusted figure is also a record high: 102.50 million in 1H2025.

 

The Rush Limbaugh/Donald Trump dumb ass unemployment rate was 37.58% in the first half of 2025

 

Trump's own government says he has 103.2 million eating but not working in June 2025

I don't make the rules.

Rush Limbaugh makes the rules.

 

Full time employment in June 2025 rises to 49.83%, first half of 2025 falls to 49.30%, as bad as 2021 or 2017

 

Full time was 49.83% of civilian population in June 2025

Full time was 49.30% of civilian population in 1H2025

CNBC also is wondering where the fuel comes from for future GDP under the Trump tax cuts since they are already not cutting it lol