Showing posts with label Secular Bull. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Secular Bull. Show all posts
Sunday, January 26, 2025

Real return from stocks was better under Trump I than under Biden

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  S&P 500 average real return, dividends fully reinvested Nov 2016--Nov 2020: 13.18% per annum Nov 2020--Nov 2024: 9.97% per annum On a ...
Tuesday, January 23, 2024

As stock indexes make new all time highs, it's still a 7% world, not a 16% world

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The current $SPX world, from Aug 2000 (market peak) to Dec 2023, dividends reinvested, average per annum return: 7.019% nominal. The previou...
Friday, April 1, 2022

Stonks have really sucked for the last 21.5 years

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Average per annum return of 4.77% has been 26% off the long term historical return from 1871 and over 61% off the immediately preceding 21.5...
Tuesday, May 4, 2021

The on-going housing bubble

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I checked the value of my home on Zillow today. It's nuts. After 13 years the estimated price is up 6.5% per annum. On the other hand, t...
Sunday, May 2, 2021

COVID-19 in the largest countries by population: Update for Sun 5/2/21

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Countries with 200 million population or more: China, India, United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria. Data isn't available i...
Monday, September 21, 2020

The 20th anniversary of the end of the Reagan bull in August 2000 shows stock market return hasn't been just sub-bull, it's been sub-normal

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Average per annum real return from the S&P 500 in the last 20 years has underperformed the 100+ years up to the beginning of the Reagan ...
Thursday, August 29, 2019

Back when America was great, Q2 real GDP used to average 4.4%, under Trump it averages 2.6%

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From 1982 to 2000, coincident with the great Reagan bull market in stocks, the average report of real GDP for the second quarter was 4.4%. ...
Friday, October 12, 2018

The current secular bear market in stocks matched the length of the Reagan secular bull in September 2018

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Average investors since August 2000 have underperformed the great Reagan secular bull market by nearly 70% annually through September 2018,...
Thursday, December 21, 2017

HaHaHa, HaHaHaHaHa: I got your "booming economy" right here, fella

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The Reagan bull ended in August 2000 with final average nominal per annum return of 18.99%, real 15.28%
Tuesday, November 28, 2017

It's hard to escape the conclusion that US GDP has been highly dependent on fertility

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Peak Baby Boom 1952-1957 when births per 1,000 of population averaged 25.17 (graph 1) is probably the simplest explanation for outsized GD...
Friday, August 4, 2017

Full-time job growth under Trump so far beats Obama and Bush, but that's about it

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Note that employers panicked under Obama and fired people like crazy after his election, so there was a steep decline in full-time. So...
Sunday, July 23, 2017

George Herbert Walker Bush's legacy: It took only 7 years of NAFTA to destroy hours worked in the United States

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Hours of all persons grew 44% during the Reagan bull market, which ended in August 2000. Since then, hours of all persons has grown just 3...
Monday, January 19, 2015

The main reason we are still in a secular bear market

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Ed Easterling, Crestmont Holdings LLC, quoted here : "P/E has not declined to levels that are required to drive a secular bull ma...
Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Apathy Precedes Bull Markets, Not Fear

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The secular bull market in gold since 2001 is coincident with a secular bear market in stocks since 2000, if this November 30, 2009  analysi...