TRUE BORN SONS OF LIBERTY

Sunday, November 9, 2014

It wasn't a Republican wave, it wasn't a thumping, IT WAS A DELUGE

Republicans didn't just sweep the House, the Senate and governorships on Tuesday, they took enough legislative chambers to set records that go back to before the Civil War. They took 65% of open state legislative seats. Now if they only had a leader.

Reuters reports here:

[The Republican Party] gained control of 10 chambers and could be on track to holding the largest number of legislative seats since before the Great Depression. ... With Tuesday's vote, Republicans took over the U.S. Senate, beefed up their majority in the U.S. House and won the governor's office in several key states. The vote also increased the number of state legislative chambers with Republican majorities to 67 from 57. Party control of the Colorado House and Washington House was still up in the air. The number of states with Republicans in control of both legislative chambers came to 27 ahead of the election and has now edged closer to the high mark of 30 in 1920 . . .. By contrast, Democrats will control the lowest number of state legislatures since 1860 . . .. Republican State Leadership Committee President Matt Walter said the party appeared to be on track to eclipse 1928's record high of 4,001 Republican state legislative seats. ... Voters on Tuesday were deciding 6,049 legislative races in 46 states, or nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats.

Intermediate term bonds beat the S&P500 over the last fifteen years

The average nominal return from the S&P500 from September 1999 through September 2014 is 4.71% per year with dividends fully reinvested.

The nominal annual return from the intermediate term bond index fund VBIIX for the fifteen years to 11/7/14 is 6.37%.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Food stamp recipient total falls only slightly in August 2014

Food stamps were taken by 46,484,828 people residing in America in August 2014, down from 46,486,888 in July.

The level is 2.5% lower than in August 2013.

The total benefit in August 2014 was $5.766 billion. The total costs in 2013 came to $79.9 billion.

The average total benefit was $124.04 per person in the program in August 2014, down from $133.07 per person monthly in 2013, and $253.69 per household on average in August 2014.

Temperature anomaly for Grand Rapids, Michigan, through October 2014 rises to -27.2 degrees F

The cumulative 2014 temperature anomaly for Grand Rapids, Michigan, through October comes to -27.2 degrees F. That's the sum total of degrees below normal temperature for the year 2014 so far. Divided by ten that comes to an average anomaly of 2.72 degrees F monthly, falling from an average anomaly of 3.00 degrees F monthly through September.

In October temperatures were nearly normal, off just 0.2 degrees F, after a below normal September off 0.7 degrees F.

The S&P500 ends the week just 0.7% below the all-time inflation-adjusted high in August 2000

The current real price of the S&P500 is 2031.92, an all-time high in the nominal sense.

This level is just 0.7% off the all-time inflation-adjusted high, which was 2046.21 and occurred in August 2000.

Valuation is rich at 26.61 for the Shiller p/e, but well-off the December 1999 peak of 44.19. However, the market crash of 2008-09 was preceded by the Shiller p/e peaking at 27.55 during 2007.

The Shiller p/e has been in a never-never land of high valuation above 26 for extended periods since October 1996, coinciding with the famous onset of "irrational exuberance". You have to go back before that all the way to 1929 to find valuation at 27 and above.

Bank Failure Friday: number 17 on the 7th of November

Frontier Bank, FSB, Palm Desert, California failed last night, costing the FDIC $4.7 million. It was the seventeenth bank failure this year. 6,656 institutions remain insured within the FDIC system through the first half of the year. That's down from 6,891 at the beginning of the year, or 3.4%, as mergers and acquisitions continue to reduce the overall number to a much higher degree than do bank failures. Stricter capital and regulatory rules continue to put pressure on relatively smaller banks, which find it difficult to remain profitable under them.

Friday, November 7, 2014

Hel-lo America . . . Republicans control the New York State Senate once again

Reported here:

In a decisive rebuke to efforts by Democrats to dominate both houses of the New York State Legislature, voters elected Republicans to a clear majority in the State Senate on Tuesday, handing them a wave of victories upstate and on Long Island, and returning the party to full control in a chamber it long dominated.

Unemployment falls to 5.8%, 214,000 jobs added in October

Average jobs added monthly in the last twelve months rose to 222,000. A year ago at this time 190,000 were being added monthly in the prior twelve months. During the Reagan boom 250,000 were added monthly for six years. During the Clinton boom 235,000 were added monthly for eight years. The 17% increase in the pace in the last year is a good thing, but we've got a long way to go, if it can even be sustained. A different indicator may give reason to hope so.

From 2008 to 2013, the percentage of the work force participating had been in steady decline measured October to October, until today. The labor participation rate now is 63.0% vs. 62.9% a year ago, not seasonally adjusted. That's not much but it may mark a turning point. It remains to be seen if the 62.5% level reached in January was in fact the bottom.

Looking at the broad measures, those who say they work usually part-time are up 414,000 not seasonally adjusted from a year ago, but the level remains 233,000 off the previous peak for an October, which occurred in 2012.

Those who work usually full-time are up an astounding 3,378,000 not seasonally adjusted from a year ago at this time. Compared with the peak year of 2007 for this metric, October on October, those who work usually full-time today are still 1.83 million fewer in number than then, not seasonally adjusted.

If you add the two categories together and divide by twelve, you get 316,000 jobs added monthly, not 222,000 as stated in the Establishment Survey which takes a larger sampling.

Go figure.

Average hours went up .1 and average earnings went up 3 cents.

Federal appeals court in Ohio upholds Michigan's 2004 Marriage Amendment

The Detroit News reports here:

The Michigan couple at the center of the same-sex marriage debate vowed Thursday to "continue the fight" after a federal appeals court in Cincinnati upheld the state's gay marriage ban. ...

The U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals also upheld laws prohibiting gay marriage in Ohio, Tennessee and Kentucky, breaking ranks with other courts that have considered the issue and setting the stage for review by the U.S.Supreme Court. ...

Attorney General Bill Schuette, who brought the appeal ... said he welcomes a Supreme Court review. "The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit has ruled, and Michigan's constitution remains in full effect," Schuette said. "As I have stated repeatedly, the U.S. Supreme Court will have the final word on this issue. The sooner they rule, the better, for Michigan and the country."

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Voter turnout nationally in 2014 at 36.6% vs. 40.9% in 2010

Reported here.

Remember "you didn't build that"? Yesterday Obama said "you didn't vote for that" crushing Republican wave

The ideologue, dismissive of the facts, quoted here:

“To everyone that voted, I want you to know that I heard you,” Obama began. “To two-thirds of voters that chose not to participate in the process yesterday, I hear you, too.”

Average age of vehicles in operation in 2014 remained steady at 11.4 years

The level was identical in 2013.

IHS/Polk reported here:

SOUTHFIELD, Mich. (June 9, 2014) – The combined average age of all light vehicles on the road in the U.S. remained steady at 11.4 years, based on a snapshot of vehicles in operation taken Jan. 1 of this year, according to IHS Automotive, which incorporated Polk into its business last year.

The gold miners are digging holes in the basement

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Republican Larry Hogan wins governorship against "the most incompetent man in Maryland"

WaPo tells the truth here, twenty-eight paragraphs in:

Both campaigns went negative from the outset. On the day after his primary win, Hogan released a Web ad calling Brown “the most incompetent man in Maryland.” It was a reference, in part, to Brown’s role in the state’s botched rollout of the online health insurance marketplace established under the federal Affordable Care Act.

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And it is said this election wasn't about ObamaCare.

Justin Amash, typical libertarian: For illegal immigration amnesty, unless he's talking to conservatives

Americans elect 9 senators liberal on illegal immigration, but 14 for strong borders and against amnesty

Americans elected the following Republicans last night who are for strong border security and against amnesty for illegal aliens:

Sessions (AL), Cotton (AR), Perdue (GA), Risch (ID), Roberts (KS), McConnell (KY), Cochran (MS), Daines (MT), Tillis (NC-may be strong), Inhofe (OK), Lankford (OK), Scott (SC), Capito (WV) and Enzi (WY).

A grades from NumbersUSA: Sessions, Risch, Roberts, Lankford, Scott, Enzi

B grades: Cotton, McConnell, Cochran, Inhofe

C grades: Daines, Capito

no grade: Tillis

True reformer: Perdue