VBMFX, inception 12/11/1986: 5.03% through 6/30/25
VTSMX, inception 4/27/1992: 10.47% through 6/30/25
Saturday, July 5, 2025
SPX since August 2000 continues to underperform the pre-Reagan era by almost 20% in real terms, the Reagan bull market era by almost 68%
SPX 8/2000-5/2025: 7.62% per annum nominal, 4.95% per annum real (inflation rate 2.54% per annum)
SPX 1/1871-7/1982: 8.15% per annum nominal, 6.18% per annum real (inflation 1.86%)
SPX 7/1982-8/2000: 18.99% per annum nominal, 15.28% per annum real (inflation 3.22%)
We'll get the June 2025 Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday July 15th. The previous read was 2.4% yoy overall, and 2.8% yoy for the core.
SPX vs. gold since 1913
Gold 1913-2025 ($20.67-$3500.05 peak on April 22, 2025): 4.689% compound annual growth rate, nominal.
The S&P 500 did better than that in nominal terms. SPX 4/1913-4/2025 (8.79-5369.50, monthly average prices): 5.895% compound annual growth rate, which does not include dividends reinvested; the nominal per annum plus dividends reinvested produced 10.14% total nominal per annum.
In real terms the $20.67 price of gold in April 1913 is only $676.62 in April 2025, or 3.164% CAGR inflation over the period. So in real terms gold is up just 1.478% per annum over the period (from $676.62 to $3500.05).
Again in real terms SPX is up more, 2.65% per annum without dividends reinvested over the period, and even more with dividends reinvested, 6.76% per annum.
Spot gold on July 4th was lower than in April, at $3329.67.
SPX made a new high for the Fourth of July.
US Treasury yields were down modestly in June 2025 on an average basis
Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.
Friday, July 4, 2025
Thursday, July 3, 2025
The GOP House bowed down and worshipped before the GOP Senate and voted for its reconciliation bill lock, stock, and barrel today at 2:30pm, including all the clowns of the House Freedom Caucus
The roll call vote is here.
The $36 trillion national debt will soar.
The interest payments on that debt were $639 billion fiscal year to date at the end of May, and they will soar, too.
The so-called fiscal conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus could have stopped this monstrosity, but they all backed down save for Massie and Fitzpatrick, and they aren't even members.
The entire House Freedom Caucus voted for it.
You can't win: State and local government employment is up 175k since January, which more than offsets federal employment down 69k
The swamp is everywhere lol.
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| down 69k |
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| up 119k |
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| up 56k |
Pressure on the House GOP reconciliation bill holdouts got them all, save one, to flip at 03:23 this morning, finally allowing the bill to come to the floor for debate
Thomas Massie was originally for bringing the bill to the floor for debate, then switched to against that after Trump got testy with him lol, and then switched back to for again after getting Trump to stop criticizing him, at least temporarily.
He'll still vote against this damn thing, and will probably be the only one.
The debate phase started at 03:30 and is still ongoing.
Hakeem Jeffries is trying to outdo Kevin McCarthy with a marathon floor speech in opposition longer than eight hours and thirty-two minutes.
In education news, the once great Indiana University has turned its back on Western civilization and purged its traditional degree programs because the children of the barbarians don't enroll in them anymore
A victory for the mouth breather, Marco Rubio, fellow servant of Mammon.
Donald Trump has managed to fire a measly 69,000 federal employees since January, state government employees up 56,000 lol
Looks like a lot of federal workers found new jobs lol.
We had a record average number who were eating but not working in the United States in 1H2025, not seasonally adjusted: 102.65 million
The seasonally adjusted figure is also a record high: 102.50 million in 1H2025.
Trump's own government says he has 103.2 million eating but not working in June 2025
I don't make the rules.
Rush Limbaugh makes the rules.
Full time employment in June 2025 rises to 49.83%, first half of 2025 falls to 49.30%, as bad as 2021 or 2017
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| Full time was 49.83% of civilian population in June 2025 |
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| Full time was 49.30% of civilian population in 1H2025 |
Wednesday, July 2, 2025
House GOP can't agree to proceed to debating Senate reconciliation bill, vote stands at 206 Yea, 216 Nay (4 GOP against), with 10 GOP not voting
Yikes.
Even if all not voting GOP vote Yea, there's a tie. Not good enough.
And moments ago Thomas Massie changed his Yea to Nay lol.
Trump’s megabill is in real trouble; House GOP leaders need to flip a ‘no’ vote to a yes
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